ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I believe the thinking here is that there is a whole lot of energy and it will need to consolidate, however, it looks like we are starting to see this process take place slowly. Probably another 24 - 48 hrs before we see any center to target.

there' already a 1009MB surface low there moving WNW (where the spin is that members have noted) but you are right, it's going to take a few days for something to get going. Look for a gradual process if something were to develop there.

There is a TUTT low between 25N and 30N off to the NNW but its moving NNW --- so upper-level winds will be increasingly favorable as the 1009MB low moves west or west-northwest. You can loop this to see the TUTT low in WV analysis.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

That is why NHC is giving it a code orange. I would too.

[KWT]

Yeah Gatorcane, pretty clear there is a circulation down there around 11.5N.

The whole thing is pretty large but its getting a lot of help from the ITCZ still I suspect, we shall see how it looks once it reaches 12-13N close to the Caribbean.

As for future track, so much depends on whether the ridge breaks down quickly or not, the ECM in the end was close but its hard to say but whats interesting about the ECM is it looks pretty good at 72hrs in terms of movement, tough calls to make!

[ConvergenceZone]

I think that with 94L, 95L and the blob that just came off the African coast, it's probably about 90% likely that we will have either a depression, storm, or cane by Labor Day weekend. If that's not the case, then I would thinking that perhaps the Cape Verde season just isn't going to give us much this year...;

BUT that shouldn't be an issues, because there will something by Labor Day weekend. I mean it is that time of the year............

[KWT]

Got some fairly deep convection on that Se blob at the moment, the mid level circulation is on the northern side but its very interesting to see.

Mid level circulation further north also is still flaring convection but seems to be rather linear at the moment

[cycloneye]

Pretty good rotation around 11n-53w.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[gatorcane]

I'm pretty convinced now looking at the synoptics that something of tropical origin is may be starting to try to brew just southeast of the Leewards -- about all we have now there is a weak 1009MB surface low where the spin is at and nothing else -- but its going to take some time (a couple of days at least)for true cyclogenesis to happen if it does...but this is definitely the next area to watch in my opinion as the whole mess drifts west or west-northwest into the Leewards islands.

[KWT]

Yeah agreed gatorcane, though the circulation further NW may at least slow any development downit remains to be seen but for now there does seem to be at least a good MLC with the SE blob though I'm doubting we see quick development with this one at first given the mess around it, however I agree this is looking like a very good candidate for our next systems and yet again looking very likely to be a threat to the Caribbean Islands and maybe the USA...

[deltadog03]

Agreed...This one is going to have to watched VERY closely....FAY should leave a weakness somewhere over the GOM for this to come into...Long time before that though.

[RL3AO]

It's slowly organizing. Lets see if it gets some strong convection over the center. It has been following a schedule with convection starting at night.

[Clipper96]

94 is now getting severely undercut by easterlies out ahead of 95's wave.

[KWT]

It looks great clipper, the center isn't where the best track puts it its clearly got strong rotation right under the convection, no undercutting occuring there!

Circulation is on the northern side of the convection, probably everything below 10N is being enhanced by the ITCZ however.

[expat2carib]

Looking scary to me.

It's on this visual just like if all the blobs are getting into one joint rotation. (untrained eyes)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Looks like they all collected enough pennies to be on the same roller coaster ride.

On the top of this loop you can still see Fay, and in the last frames, this (94/95) system(s) looks like her....aaarghhhh

[KWT]

Pretty large blob of convection developing now just north of the ITCZ induced blob, looks like 11N will be the focus for development with 94L, will be very interesting to watch over the next 24hrs to see if the MLC extents further to the surface.

[abajan]

Looks like Barbados has dodged another bullet. IMO, 94L is so close to us that by the time it gets its act together, it would've already passed us. Am I correct, Pro-Mets?

[cycloneye]

Looks like Barbados has dodged another bullet. IMO, 94L is so close to us that by the time it gets its act together, it would've already passed us. Am I correct, Pro-Mets?

I am not a pro met,but agree with you on that.It would have to explode rapidly and do a RI.More likely if it develops,it would be somewhere in the Caribbean sea.

[KWT]

Depends on whether it gains enough latitude more to the point. The best track still suggests 30kts so the effects between this and a TD, even if it stays a wave will likely be the same.

[Clipper96]

2008 season characteristic: cyclones will not form out of main invest LLCs, but some runty MLC thing nearby, causing complete havoc to model initialization.

94 had four of five of the darn things; at least we know which one is the "real" 94 now.

...yikes! Is it ever low. 11N. Western Caribbean --> Gulf?

[abajan]

I'm getting light rain right now with occasional rumbles of thunder. BTW, thanks for your responses, cycloneye and KWT.

[KWT]

abajan, your probably getting the remains of the convective blob that developed to the east of 94L today.

Looks like some good deep convection blowing up close to the center of 94L, I bet this is well on its way to being a TDif this keeps up, wonder what recon will show when the time comes.

[PTrackerLA]

94L is looking fairly impressive this evening. With the low latitude of this system, it's definitely something to keep an eye on in the Caribbean and Gulf down the road. The possible weakness left by Fay is concering as well. Welcome to the meat of the season people!