ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian develops two storms, close enough to each other that I suspect the model lets them influence each other, ie, sort of a trash run.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z GFDL -similar path as 12Z GFDL (18Z lost it), but weaker.

[Meso]

long range 00z CMC



Texas landfall as a major

[KWT]

Once again ECM take its towards Hispaniola as a weak system and only strengthens this once its well clear of there:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 231253
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1253 UTC SAT AUG 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080823 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080823 1200 080824 0000 080824 1200 080825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 56.8W 12.3N 59.3W 13.5N 61.7W 14.7N 63.8W
BAMD 11.2N 56.8W 12.2N 59.7W 13.2N 62.4W 14.2N 64.9W
BAMM 11.2N 56.8W 12.5N 59.6W 13.8N 62.2W 14.9N 64.7W
LBAR 11.2N 56.8W 11.9N 59.4W 12.9N 62.4W 13.8N 65.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080825 1200 080826 1200 080827 1200 080828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 66.1W 17.6N 69.8W 18.4N 73.4W 18.2N 77.1W
BAMD 15.1N 67.1W 16.3N 70.9W 15.9N 74.6W 14.9N 78.4W
BAMM 15.9N 67.1W 17.4N 71.0W 17.6N 74.5W 16.7N 78.6W
LBAR 14.8N 68.1W 16.8N 72.6W 17.1N 76.5W 15.9N 79.4W
SHIP 55KTS 71KTS 78KTS 83KTS
DSHP 55KTS 71KTS 78KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 56.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 54.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 52.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC SHIP forecast does show some shear but not very strong.

Code: Select all

         *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  08/23/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    35    45    55    65    71    77    78    81    83
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    35    45    55    65    71    77    78    81    83
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    34    41    49    58    65    72    77    81

SHEAR (KTS)       13    10     4     8     9     2    11     4    13     6    19     4     8
SHEAR DIR         27    45    21    27    35   228   326   304     6   340    16    65   360
SST (C)         28.7  28.6  28.6  28.6  28.5  28.6  28.7  28.8  28.8  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   148   147   147   147   145   146   148   149   148   149   150   149   147
ADJ. POT. INT.   151   152   151   149   146   145   144   142   139   141   141   142   141
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    11    10     9    11    10    12    11    12    11    12    10
700-500 MB RH     64    65    66    65    66    64    64    63    61    62    60    63    63
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    40    44    43    45    46    37    28    14    10    18    11    24    34
200 MB DIV        12    -3     3    21    24    34    26    -8   -11    16    -1    -2     1
LAND (KM)        443   326   242   261   344   367   224   150    47    47    70    55   155
LAT (DEG N)     11.2  11.9  12.5  13.2  13.8  14.9  15.9  16.8  17.4  17.7  17.6  17.3  16.7
LONG(DEG W)     56.8  58.2  59.6  60.9  62.2  64.7  67.1  69.1  71.0  72.6  74.5  76.5  78.6
STM SPEED (KT)    13    15    15    14    14    13    12    10     8     9     9    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      72    79    75    53    71    75    82    96    71    83     6    47    86

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  553  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  32.5 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  58.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   6.  12.  19.  24.  29.  32.  36.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   8.  10.  10.   9.   8.   8.   8.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   4.   6.  10.  20.  30.  39.  45.  51.  54.  57.  60.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   4.   7.  10.  20.  30.  40.  46.  52.  53.  56.  58.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 08/23/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  11.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 125.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  26.0 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  70.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    21% is   1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    12% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 08/23/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY   

[Portastorm]

I make the simple observation we have had over a week of Westerlies, and multiple cold front passages, and that one hurricane (barely a hurricane) in sixty years has hit Texas in October, and some people get all upset like I'm trying to cancel Christmas, Chanukkah, Kwanzaa and New Years. And Chinese New Years. And the Super Bowl.

Nah Ed, we're just having some good-natured fun at your expense. You were bold enough to suggest in the middle of August that the Texas tropical season is probably over. Who knows? You might be right and if you end up being right, I will give you all the props in the world for a great call.

As for 94L, if it stays south of Cuba and is heading west-northwest, I'd say those of us in the WGOM better be paying close attention.

[Derek Ortt]

that SHIPS shear is dead wrong.

There is 30KT ahead of it via the CIMSS analysis. GFS must be missing the upper trough

[deltadog03]

Derek, this may miss that incoming TUTT...Even, if it dosn't then once it busts through, there is a very good enviroment for this to try to develop.

[perk]

I make the simple observation we have had over a week of Westerlies, and multiple cold front passages, and that one hurricane (barely a hurricane) in sixty years has hit Texas in October, and some people get all upset like I'm trying to cancel Christmas, Chanukkah, Kwanzaa and New Years. And Chinese New Years. And the Super Bowl.

Nah Ed, we're just having some good-natured fun at your expense. You were bold enough to suggest in the middle of August that the Texas tropical season is probably over. Who knows? You might be right and if you end up being right, I will give you all the props in the world for a great call.

As for 94L, if it stays south of Cuba and is heading west-northwest, I'd say those of us in the WGOM better be paying close attention.

Ed as Portastorm pointed out nobody's upset, where's your sense of humor. You had to know that a post like that would garner some attention. I've read some of the reponses and upset is the wrong word to describe them.

[Sanibel]

Take all initial points as real. This is go.

[gatorcane]

NOGAPS insisting on a track into the SE Bahamas. It's been forecasting this path for several runs now. The CMC is a Fay Redux it looks like..a bit more west but near Eastern Cuba:

[Sanibel]

That model (NOGAPS) would be an East Coast hit - say South or North Carolina. Or a recurver if that High to the north shifts east.

[ROCK]

long range 00z CMC



Texas landfall as a major

Hey Ed, you know we love you man!!.....BTW- didnt you say something that if anther TC hits Tx this year your would run down the street like a 200lb mad man screaming in your underwear? I cant recall that exact wager???

[O Town]

[SouthFLTropics]

I would say that at this time we don't have very good model consensus...Let's wait and see if this thing actually makes it past SA. I'm actually paying a bit more attention to 95L. Could be more of a player down the road.

SFT

[cheezyWXguy]

I would say that at this time we don't have very good model consensus...Let's wait and see if this thing actually makes it past SA. I'm actually paying a bit more attention to 95L. Could be more of a player down the road.

SFT

Well, seeing as the center is already north of the highest latitude of south america and its moving slightly north of due west, I dont think that south america is a problem except for inflow channel disruption. However, there are many storms that were not affected by this (aka felix, I think Ivan, etc) and this could become a major player. Seeing as all models initialize with a motion that is too far north, the actual path may be much further west of what they expect.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I suspect this low path storm will probably do a pretty abrupt right turn....wnw to nw to nnw and then north once it gets to that outer periphery of the ridge. The big question is ... where will the ridge be next weekend?

And then there is the other factor of a deep dipping front again progged to be coming into the picture as well.

Unless the ridge builds in super strong and traverses nearly the entire gulf, I doubt this is a texas storm. Only chance of that would be it staying extremely weak and ending up crashing into the Yucatan, then coming out into the Bay of Campeche and possibly affecting extreme southern Texas.

I don't think that scenario will play out though. The SSTs are super warm and this should rev up a bit, despite some shear. As big as this is, it will probably be able to withstand minor bouts of shear by the time it gets to it much later in the forecast period.

Its the short-term shear that could potentially keep it in check in a few days, which will determine whether it can get its act together enough to be a strong turner or weak, westerly moving storm. (forgive any typos please, I type fast, but not the best accuracy! haha)

[Portastorm]

I don't know, the upper level winds (from 200 mb to 500 mb) per the 0z GFS are all easterly at 96-120 hours. Not sure what would induce this system, regardless of its organization and strength, poleward. I see it moving on a west-northwest track for several days at least.

[ROCK]

the bend in the models at the end of there runs tells me that the weakness left by Fay will be filling in quickly. Question remains what does any progged trof do to the ridging as it nears the GOM, or FL? I would not discount anyone in the GOM to EC at this time.