ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[jaxfladude]

On behalf of many and in advance of what this invest may become: "Oh, crap!"

[capepoint]

:uarrow:
On behalf of many and in advance of what this invest may become: "Oh, crap!"

Yep. And for what we are about to recieve...........

[Sanibel]

Charley started as a little dot of a burst right down there. I doubt this one would have the same steering currents though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If it doesn't gain latitude, South America/land interaction may keep it from doing much until it reaches about 75ºW where South America's coast curves Southward.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It still has a chance but it don't look good right now. Maybe if a new burst of convection can start to form and hold, then maybe we could see something start to develop.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT
20 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
IS PRODUCING SEVERAL SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Clipper96]

I wish the storm2k track chart was corrected - the current Invest center at 11N isn't from a Cape Verde wave.

[fasterdisaster]

If it doesn't gain latitude, South America/land interaction may keep it from doing much until it reaches about 75ºW where South America's coast curves Southward.

Emily Redux.

[KWT]

Convection has just blown up very clsoe to the MLC, still a touch on the southern side but not by a huge degree, if I had to have a rough eyeball of the MLC it'd be around 11.5/56W roughly.

Some land interaction may be an issue we shall have to see.

[cycloneye]

23/0615 UTC 10.7N 55.0W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Hurricane Cheese]

Convection seems to be on the increase this morning. I think we can finally say that this is one to watch.

Land interaction would be a concern for it's development, although I do recall a certain storm (which is my avatar) from four years ago that everyone thought would be hindered by the South American coastline...and we all know how that turned out.

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion from San Juan weather service....
FXCA62 TJSJ 231005
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST SAT AUG 23 2008


.DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE LOCAL AREA...AS TROPICAL WAVES AND
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTER
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS POSITIVE TILTED WAVE STRETCHES
OUT FROM SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA BY MID MORNING. THEN...A SHORT LIVED DRY SLOT WILL
ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...EXPECT MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ACROSS
ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS URBAN
LOCATIONS.

FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...PATCHES OF MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...A BROAD ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING SIGNIFICANTLY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING AS PER LAST RUN.

STAY TUNED FOR LATEST UPDATE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS COMPLEX TROPICAL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 230927
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST SAT AUG 23 2008


ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
PRESENTLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND DRAG ADDITIONAL ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS DISTURBED WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WIND SURGE AND BUILDING SEAS IN EAST
NORTHEAST SWELLS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MARINERS CAN GENERALLY
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT....WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

$$

[jlauderdal]

Interresting discussion from San Juan weather service....
FXCA62 TJSJ 231005
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST SAT AUG 23 2008


.DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE LOCAL AREA...AS TROPICAL WAVES AND
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTER
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS POSITIVE TILTED WAVE STRETCHES
OUT FROM SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA BY MID MORNING. THEN...A SHORT LIVED DRY SLOT WILL
ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...EXPECT MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ACROSS
ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS URBAN
LOCATIONS.

FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...PATCHES OF MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...A BROAD ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING SIGNIFICANTLY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING AS PER LAST RUN.

STAY TUNED FOR LATEST UPDATE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS COMPLEX TROPICAL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA.

good consenus on it running south of fay tracks so hispanola, eastern cuba land interaction appears to be less of a factor but after that then its far west of 80 can it get, this one looks to be more intense wind wise than fay, i say wind wise because fay was very intense moisture wise, actually blew away most hurricanes precip wise

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, a low pressure circulation will be moving into the Windward and Leeward Islands today, bringing heavy showers and gusty winds. As this low pressure tracks west or west-northwest over the next few days, some slow strengthening is possible.

[cycloneye]

348
ABNT20 KNHC 231154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
IS PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.



THE 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS RELOCATED NEAR 11N55 BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE PHOTOS. CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE AROUND
THE LOW CENTER. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

[cycloneye]

The latest pic:

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... l/COS.html