ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ed Mahmoud]

Finally, light at the end of the Fay tunnel.


BTW, too bad they locked the "Fay was overhyped' thread. Despite never being a hurricane, duration of wind and rain seems to have led to areas of low end hurricane like damage. Shallow trees in mud don't need a hurricane to uproot. And this had Allison like flooding. People I know from other blogs around Jacksonville have been offline, probably w/o electricity, since early yesterday.

[ktulu909]

Seems alot of rain is building out in front of fay,towards the northwest. in the last few hours.Looks like a battle between the dry air and Fay wants to throw a punch or two more.

[cpdaman]

with fay drifting aimlessly Just NW of panama city per radar (her west motion appears to have stopped IMO)

the rains are unrelenting over the capital area and much worse between perry and lamont -totals there by sunday could rival melbourne/cocoa

[wxman57]

Sadly, Fay doesn't seem to have let up at all when it comes to making rain - must still be spinning just offshore or partially offshore.

The center of Fay is actually 20 miles inland. The problem is a feeder band streaming northward into the eastern Florida Panhandle east of the center is producing the heavy rain about 100 miles east of the center.

[Steve]

Yeah cpd and enzo, that's some serious rainfall over there. That, brief gusty winds and the threat of isolated tornados was always going to be the worst the GC saw (maybe a few water spouts and coastal erosion as well). Lots of flooding rains from S FL up through Melbourne and then over to Jacksonville and then along the eastern and Central Panhandle.

Also, cpd, I don't think the westward motion has stopped at all. It's just changed orientation a bit. Those 06z 500mb runs I potsed earlier showed Fay at the upper levels changing shape and kind of flipping north of the AL Gulf Coast and then settling back in as the dry air wedge/upper energy coming down to Fay's west undercuts it to the South before losing its punch as Fay builds back more "circularly" closer to the MGC [tm] and the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain (St. Tammany, Washington and Tangipahoa Parishes, LA and Pearl River County and maybe northern Hancock, MS). I don't think these areas see the same amount of rain that points east have, but there will probably be a good swath of 3-5+" and maybe some very isolated 8-10ish.

To emphasize the point about what those models showed in the upper levels, look at it down on visible as thicker convection is lunging through Southern Alabama NE of Baldwin County.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

JMO and not official anything.

Steve

[Steve]

Also, better view of that band setting up near Tallahassee and the stronger one near perry shows up better on some of the other radars:

Moody (Base):
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

Tally (ever growing storm total):
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

Really seeing some serious whiteout of those totals. They may have to switch to the other scale method. QPF showing 20+ in the central Panhandle from Thursday Night looks to have been pretty good.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

As you can see above, a bunch of counties now under Flash Flood Warnings in the Panhandle and into SW Georgia (+/- Bainbridge)

Steve

[bayoubebe]

Question: How long could NOLA levies handle 4-5"/hour rainfall rates?

It's not going to be a question of the levees because there won't be a storm surge. It's going to be a question of what the pumps can handle. And the pumps can only pump out 1 inch of rain per hour.

Do you guys think Fay will die down quite a bit before reaching us in LA. though?
Listening to TV and radio analysis opinions, it seems to vary to a great degree on about what it will do by the time it reaches LA.
Just curious about the opinions here of what you think we should expect.

I really feel badly for the Floridians. It would appear the whole state got much rain out of Fay, and it some areas way too much.

edit: Just saw Steve's opinion on this:
"AL Gulf Coast and then settling back in as the dry air wedge/upper energy coming down to Fay's west undercuts it to the South before losing its punch as Fay builds back more "circularly" closer to the MGC [tm] and the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain (St. Tammany, Washington and Tangipahoa Parishes, LA and Pearl River County and maybe northern Hancock, MS). I don't think these areas see the same amount of rain that points east have, but there will probably be a good swath of 3-5+" and maybe some very isolated 8-10ish."

[Ivanhater]

Is that eastern side, looking to setup around NW Florida with that much rain?

[tolakram]

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

[Steve]

>>Do you guys think Fay will die down quite a bit before reaching us in LA. though?

I do. It's an outstanding day today here today in the Bayous of S LA. Breezes maybe 10-15, mostly sunny with low clouds starting to thicken up a hair. But we'll probably still see some showers and gusts 20-30ish or maybe a little higher on the coastal waters.

>>Is that eastern side, looking to setup around NW Florida with that much rain?

Hard to say. Even if the storm changes shape for a while, it will still be feeding off of the Gulf so you will probably get some nice squalls and feeder bands as Fay's circulation probably passes you to your north (????) and northwest (????).

^^^ Not official

Steve

[Sean in New Orleans]

I haven't been following the storm too much this morning...catching the Olympics, but, it doesn't look like it is in the GOM to me, but, Channel 6 just broke into the Olympics and said that Fay is back in the GOM. Whatever. It looks like Monday will be the bad day for New Orleans with heavy rain and wind. St. Charles Parish Gov't officials are predicting 6 to 12 inches of rain on Monday to its residents in a special statement put out today. Haven't heard any comments from Orleans Parish. St. Tammany Parish is filling sand bags according to their statement. We're going to go double check all of our storm drains later today.

[HURAKAN]

[Shockwave]

I haven't been following the storm too much this morning...catching the Olympics, but, it doesn't look like it is in the GOM to me, but, Channel 6 just broke into the Olympics and said that Fay is back in the GOM. Whatever. It looks like Monday will be the bad day for New Orleans with heavy rain and wind. St. Charles Parish Gov't officials are predicting 6 to 12 inches of rain on Monday to its residents in a special statement put out today. Haven't heard any comments from Orleans Parish. St. Tammany Parish is filling sand bags according to their statement. We're going to go double check all of our storm drains later today.

I went down to Pearlington, MS last summer and fall to help after Katrina. And I bet there getting ready. I hope you guys stay safe in the Big Easy too.

[sunny]

Do you guys think Fay will die down quite a bit before reaching us in LA. though?
Listening to TV and radio analysis opinions, it seems to vary to a great degree on about what it will do by the time it reaches LA.
Just curious about the opinions here of what you think we should expect.

I'm not overly concerned and those who know me will tell you I am quite the nervous Nelly when it comes to tropical systems I would't mind a day off of work (don't tell the boss I said that!!!).

I really feel badly for the Floridians. It would appear the whole state got much rain out of Fay, and it some areas way too much.

I do as well, my heart goes out to them, the entire state got overloaded with Fay

[MetsIslesNoles]

By the way for anyone that thought Fay wouldn't cause issues in the Tallahassee area, they were mistaken. 25-30 mph gusts have been plenty to take down a lot of trees around town, causing major road blockages and power issues. All this rain softens up the ground and many of the trees are all too happy to topple over. I keep waiting for the band to move, but it just seems to very very slowly move west, which means Tallahassee has only been getting the heaviest of rain for the last hour or so.

I'm glad I'm on high ground without many trees around.

[rockyman]

Middle Bay Lighthouse (Mobile Bay) now reporting sustained winds of 29.9 knots

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mbla1

[Jason_B]

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

Is that just a center relocation or it is moving off to the NW now?

[GulfHills]

I'm in Tallahassee, and so far at my house, we've had 12 inches. My neighbor had a pine tree come down (thankfully missed their house). Winds are still gusting to 33 mph. And still more rain to come!

[TampaFl]

1:00pm CDT Postion - Map coursty BoatUS.com:


http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/default.asp

[Jason_B]

I would be surprised if Fay made it west of Pensacola, it just looks like she wants to sit over the NE FL panhandle until that trough lifts her off to the north...I've seen little if any progression to the west all day today.