ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

95L is activated again:

Best Track at 12:00 UTC.

AL, 95, 2008082312, , BEST, 0, 191N, 477W, 25, 1014, DB, 0,

[cpdaman]

good , she looks fine and is like speed racer

how many degrees of longitude does a system going west at around 20 mph gain per day

10?

also better stay south, little lady then you may be fine

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

seems the southerly shear around 21/55 is lessening and lifting north , we shall see however

[gatorcane]

95L's convection is increasing this morning:

[SouthFLTropics]

95L is no longer showing up on the S2K map...has this been deactivated again?

SFT

[Sanibel]

Red IR bespeaks energy and therefore possible development. Like 99L but more into the season and therefore better conditions.

[gatorcane]

My attention is gradually being turned to 95L today as it is racing West or WSW at 20mph

[cycloneye]

025
ABNT20 KNHC 231752
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT
75 MILES EAST OF PENSACOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WAVE SHOULD
SPREAD SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Clipper96]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Looks like a TD....

[Praxus]

Double oranges, things are chugging along

[Clipper96]

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... c+hiresvis

The entire Atlantic basin south of 35N is covered by surface easterlies. 95 is deeply entrained within it. ULLs are retrograding and/or weakening and lifting north out of 95's way.

94 is a mess, but 95 appears to be well-organized already and merely in need of warmer water - and a substantial east-coast threat.

[Recurve]

good , she looks fine and is like speed racer

how many degrees of longitude does a system going west at around 20 mph gain per day

10?

also better stay south, little lady then you may be fine

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

seems the southerly shear around 21/55 is lessening and lifting north , we shall see however

1 degree longitude (at 0 Lat) = 60 minutes of arc = 60 nm = 60 knot speed to cover in one hour

20 mph = 17.5 k. = 17.5 minutes of arc/hr * 24 hrs = 420 minutes longitude a day /60 min/degree = 7 degrees/day.

Becomes more degrees per day but same distance in nm of course farther north or south of the equator

Somebody check my math and slap me if that's wrong.

[RL3AO]

good , she looks fine and is like speed racer

how many degrees of longitude does a system going west at around 20 mph gain per day

10?

also better stay south, little lady then you may be fine

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

seems the southerly shear around 21/55 is lessening and lifting north , we shall see however

1 degree longitude (at 0 Lat) = 60 minutes of arc = 60 nm = 60 knot speed to cover in one hour

20 mph = 17.5 k. = 17.5 minutes of arc/hr * 24 hrs = 420 minutes longitude a day /60 min/degree = 7 degrees/day.

Becomes more degrees per day but same distance in nm of course farther north or south of the equator

Somebody check my math and slap me if that's wrong.

It would be 7 degrees at the equator and a little bit more at 20N, like you said. Otherwise the math looks right.

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 95, 2008082318, , BEST, 0, 196N, 500W, 30, 1013, DB, 34

[Just Joshing You]

In the latest visible floater, it looks like the top was blown off LOL

[KWT]

Gaining latitude still, now at 19.6N and only jsut past 50W, screams recurve to me unless a huge block develops to the north...may be a threat ot the east coast...of Bermuda!

Got a good chance of developing mind you still IMO and being serious if the upper high builds strongly to the north this may a threat to the NE IMO, will have to see!

[Clipper96]

Swirl to south of 95 now firing: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

It's moving slower (95 was northeast of it yesterday) and more westward than 95.

[KWT]

The whole thing is going poof right now clipper, thats really not what you want to see for development, but it does mean the track should remain close to west for now as well.

[Clipper96]

Shear is killing the top of 95 while the developing swirl is beginning to steal its inflow.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... c+hiresvis

The swirl seems to be staying behind the main bulk of the retrograding shear-line.

- Swirl dominates and takes over?

[KWT]

Its interesting, you can see that little circulation which is pretty much as good as naked whilst the MLC is now decaying in terms of convection. Reminds me alot of Fay in the way that its split centered!

If the southern area can do something then it may well get further west then I first thought we shall see...

[Clipper96]

If the southern area can do something then it may well get further west then I first thought we shall see...

Oh definitely. I put it on a 290-ish heading, projecting it running right through the "box" somewhere between 20N/60W and the V.I.s