ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Will the John Hope rule apply here? The late John Hope said in his Tropical Updates that if a system didnt form before it reached the islands,then it will wait to form in the Western Caribbean.

really, I dont think thats a correct statement, seeing as the eastern caribbean graveyard is sort of a myth. Dennis is a good counter arguement to Bob Hope's statement. But I dont think development will occur till the central caribbean since its so disorganized right now. But I do believe this will eventually develop.

Hey Cheezy, did you really mean to say "Bob Hope"??

oops HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH!

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 94, 2008082318, , BEST, 0, 110N, 610W, 30, 1007, LO, 0,

[FireBird]

Just an update from the thick of things here in Trinidad. The rains started about 10:30 and the streets began flooding here in the west of the country. I had to create a breakwater as the muddy waters started to come into my yard. It seems there are unconfirmed reports of problem flooding in some areas and when I passed across a nearby river around 1:00pm, I could tell that it had already burst the banks. After a short lull, the thunderstorms are in full swing. Awesome displays of lightning and claps of thunder. Gusts are easily at 25mph, perhaps higher at times. I'm writing this now because the power may soon shut down in my area. The sad thing is that in general people in my country don't make the weather their daily concern so the majority of the populace has NO IDEA of what's going on. And I get upset too with my own Met office because today's a classic example of when bulletins should have been issued and I have yet to hear one.............

[ConvergenceZone]

Just an update from the thick of things here in Trinidad. The rains started about 10:30 and the streets began flooding here in the west of the country. I had to create a breakwater as the muddy waters started to come into my yard. It seems there are unconfirmed reports of problem flooding in some areas and when I passed across a nearby river around 1:00pm, I could tell that it had already burst the banks. After a short lull, the thunderstorms are in full swing. Awesome displays of lightning and claps of thunder. Gusts are easily at 25mph, perhaps higher at times. I'm writing this now because the power may soon shut down in my area. The sad thing is that in general people in my country don't make the weather their daily concern so the majority of the populace has NO IDEA of what's going on. And I get upset too with my own Met office because today's a classic example of when bulletins should have been issued and I have yet to hear one.............

Thanx for the info Firebird and stay safe out there!!!...Hope conditions will improve for you soon...

[FireBird]

Thanx. And special thanks to all you guys out there for the views on this very interesting piece of weather. The various thoughts help to strike a balance, and in the end, this wealth of knowledge makes for great learning and a closer S2K membership. Glad to be here. Hope that if (and when?) this does develop, that the affected folks will be well prepared. Peace out.......

[Gustywind]

Thanx. And special thanks to all you guys out there for the views on this very interesting piece of weather. The various thoughts help to strike a balance, and in the end, this wealth of knowledge makes for great learning and a closer S2K membership. Glad to be here. Hope that if (and when?) this does develop, that the affected folks will be well prepared. Peace out.......

Hope the very best for you FireBird and that this episode will end quickly

[KWT]

Really far south this one is, a coast of South america system and pretty much ruins the models forecasting recurve.

Indeed this one may have a hard time doing anything at all, its just a convective mess at the moment and very strung out, very hard to pin point the actual focal point of any development right now in this mess.

[ConvergenceZone]

Really far south this one is, a coast of South america system and pretty much ruins the models forecasting recurve.

Indeed this one may have a hard time doing anything at all, its just a convective mess at the moment and very strung out, very hard to pin point the actual focal point of any development right now in this mess.

Upon noticiing some of the models keeping this west, I'm starting to agree with you. This looks to be one of those systems(and there have been MANY of them) that just ride low and eventually emerge back into the pacific...I mean really, what's to keep it from doing that?...I'm losing interest by the hour on this system.....

[KWT]

The thing is this should gain at least some latitude I'd have thought, though it may well remain a low rider given where its at now.

Its tought knowing where any circulation is, I'd take a guess though and say its a ENE of where the best track is, I see nothing that far west presently.

[ConvergenceZone]

The thing is this should gain at least some latitude I'd have thought, though it may well remain a low rider given where its at now.

Its tought knowing where any circulation is, I'd take a guess though and say its a ENE of where the best track is, I see nothing that far west presently.

Yea, I guess it's just a wait and see thing...

**On a side note, have you ever had a situation happen on these boards where you closed one window and opened another and then all of the sudden window after window starting opening up and I had over 50 windows opend up that I couldn't shut down...That was strange.......**

[KWT]

I wonder whether we will get a Ceaser situation out of this if it does stay south as it is, I think its more likely to pick up some latitude but still its pretty obvious its not gonig to clear central America and probably hit somewhere.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231949
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2008

AN AREA OFDISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE..WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A BIG AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXIST HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THIS SYSTEM WILL BE..WHEN WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. DUE TO THIS
SCENARIO...ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST GRIDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. LOCAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING TH NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Gustywind]

23/1745 UTC 12.6N 58.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
From: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[KWT]

That looks pretty close to where I'd place it to be honest Gustywind, should expect that 12.6N would be far enough north to allow for some development unhindered by south America, thats close to where I expected it to be, the best track looks too far SW.

[abajan]

...**On a side note, have you ever had a situation happen on these boards where you closed one window and opened another and then all of the sudden window after window starting opening up and I had over 50 windows opend up that I couldn't shut down...That was strange.......**

That is strange. Are you using IE or Firefox? If you're using the former, I would advice going with the latter because my feelings about IE are similar to P.K's

[msbee]

Just an update from the thick of things here in Trinidad. The rains started about 10:30 and the streets began flooding here in the west of the country. I had to create a breakwater as the muddy waters started to come into my yard. It seems there are unconfirmed reports of problem flooding in some areas and when I passed across a nearby river around 1:00pm, I could tell that it had already burst the banks. After a short lull, the thunderstorms are in full swing. Awesome displays of lightning and claps of thunder. Gusts are easily at 25mph, perhaps higher at times. I'm writing this now because the power may soon shut down in my area. The sad thing is that in general people in my country don't make the weather their daily concern so the majority of the populace has NO IDEA of what's going on. And I get upset too with my own Met office because today's a classic example of when bulletins should have been issued and I have yet to hear one.............

Firebird
hope things are OK in Trinidad. give us an update when you can.

[msbee]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231949
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2008

AN AREA OFDISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE..WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A BIG AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXIST HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THIS SYSTEM WILL BE..WHEN WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. DUE TO THIS
SCENARIO...ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST GRIDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. LOCAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING TH NEuT FEW DAYS.

GUsty or cycloneye.. can you explain to me how this system , going west, as such a low latitude is going to cause gusty winds and heavy rains in the PR area?

[Gustywind]

Just an update from the thick of things here in Trinidad. The rains started about 10:30 and the streets began flooding here in the west of the country. I had to create a breakwater as the muddy waters started to come into my yard. It seems there are unconfirmed reports of problem flooding in some areas and when I passed across a nearby river around 1:00pm, I could tell that it had already burst the banks. After a short lull, the thunderstorms are in full swing. Awesome displays of lightning and claps of thunder. Gusts are easily at 25mph, perhaps higher at times. I'm writing this now because the power may soon shut down in my area. The sad thing is that in general people in my country don't make the weather their daily concern so the majority of the populace has NO IDEA of what's going on. And I get upset too with my own Met office because today's a classic example of when bulletins should have been issued and I have yet to hear one.............

Firebird
hope things are OK in Trinidad. give us an update when you can.

Yeah msbee good post and do not forget that you can add any observations from your island, islanders of the Carib in the special thread created ...http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102697

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231949
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2008

AN AREA OFDISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE..WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A BIG AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXIST HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THIS SYSTEM WILL BE..WHEN WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. DUE TO THIS
SCENARIO...ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST GRIDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. LOCAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GUsty or cycloneye.. can you explain to me how this system , going west, as such a low latitude is going to cause gusty winds and heavy rains in the PR area?

Waouw lol, i'm anwsering you with a hig range of subjectivity, i post that but i'm little dubtfull about gustywinds and heavy rains concerning PR ( for Guadeloupe i'm beginning to be a bit dubtfull and for PR like an utopia but who knows?), i tkink that when the system will be more on the carib sea past 60w ( maybe at Dominca's location??!i don't know, i'm guessing lol? ??) it should be on the increase and all the moisture air surrounding could bring more convective cells and given some gustywinds in vicinity near Guadeloupe and PR ? For the moment it's wait and see. Personnaly given all the latests weather predictions of Meteo-France we're a bit blessed since yesterday afternoon forecasts after forecasts and that's very good , seems that the only weather action with my untrained eyes (and if this system can be on the increase) could be tommorow afternoon given Meteo_France Guadeloupe so we're waiting for gustywinds ( NOT ME lol ) near 60Km/h and no more compared to the previous forecasts more agressive speaking about 80km/ h and higher but added to showers with modest thunderstorms. Here's Msbee my point of view, thus... very limited of your pertinent thought ... if Cycloneye and the others can help you and me, i will be glad....!

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, regardless if this goes southwest or west, I don't see how this will be a US threat at all....It's just WAY too far south and without anything in the works to pull it up North, it's just going to head straight into Mexico, even if it comes up a little bit...

So yea, does look like it will miss South America, but anything west will still be way too far south to affect the USA.......There were some systems last year that did this exact same thing, and people were saying that they would turn North, but they never did....They aren't just going to decide to steer North on their own...