ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

Rock'er...I heard the opp about 94L...But what do I know?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not overly impressed by satellite, very deep convection, yes, but not looking very organized.


GFDL six hour 30 knot increase in wind speed sure didn't happen.

[ROCK]

I'm not overly impressed by satellite, very deep convection, yes, but not looking very organized.


GFDL six hour 30 knot increase in wind speed sure didn't happen.

well of course your not...

[Blown Away]

I don't get the TAFB, it conflicts w/ the models alot of the times. The current 72 hour TAFB has 94L going into Hispanola and the models are going to the W Carribean??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[ROCK]

Rock'er...I heard the opp about 94L...But what do I know?

say again??

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not overly impressed by satellite, very deep convection, yes, but not looking very organized.


GFDL six hour 30 knot increase in wind speed sure didn't happen.

well of course your not...

I'm not a pro=met or Frank style anti-everything guy. Really.

You wait until December, when 204 hour 18Z GFS is showing precip and sub 540 dm thicknesses for HOU, and you will see -removed- for weather that blows your socks off...

[ROCK]

I don't get the TAFB, it conflicts w/ the models alot of the times. The current 72 hour TAFB has 94L going into Hispanola and the models are going to the W Carribean??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

not sure why the descrepancy....current steering would suggest west until development (if any)...


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

I doubt I'm the only one who sees a convectively active but completely disorganized wave on satellite. Any model predicting rapid development is probably wrong.

[ROCK]

I'm not overly impressed by satellite, very deep convection, yes, but not looking very organized.


GFDL six hour 30 knot increase in wind speed sure didn't happen.

well of course your not...

I'm not a pro=met or Frank style anti-everything guy. Really.

You wait until December, when 204 hour 18Z GFS is showing precip and sub 540 dm thicknesses for HOU, and you will see -removed- for weather that blows your socks off...

I will believe when I see it... however please dont imply that I wishcast. I do look at the models and base my opinion on what I see. Good or bad....

Thats said, ever since you started the TX season over thread in August be prepared to get a hard time....

[Derek Ortt]

I don't get the TAFB, it conflicts w/ the models alot of the times. The current 72 hour TAFB has 94L going into Hispanola and the models are going to the W Carribean??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

the models that mean something by in large all have this going into Hispaniola

[ROCK]

I doubt I'm the only one who sees a convectively active but completely disorganized wave on satellite. Any model predicting rapid development is probably wrong.

Oh I see it and dont discount it. However looking down the road the conditions do get somewhat favorable thus the code orange from the NHC.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

I doubt I'm the only one who sees a convectively active but completely disorganized wave on satellite. Any model predicting rapid development is probably wrong.

Oh I see it and dont discount it. However looking down the road the conditions do get somewhat favorable thus the code orange from the NHC.....

I don't rule out development, but when GFDL takes it from 25 knots to 55 knots in 6 hours, or at 0Z, and it isn't yet, it could mean a major hurricane charging toward the Gulf in 5 days may not be quite correct. Maybe.

[ROCK]

I doubt I'm the only one who sees a convectively active but completely disorganized wave on satellite. Any model predicting rapid development is probably wrong.

Oh I see it and dont discount it. However looking down the road the conditions do get somewhat favorable thus the code orange from the NHC.....

I don't rule out development, but when GFDL takes it from 25 knots to 55 knots in 6 hours, or at 0Z, and it isn't yet, it could mean a major hurricane charging toward the Gulf in 5 days may not be quite correct. Maybe.

Yeah, it is took quick with developement as is the HWRF....CMC might have a better handle as it does get it going until the central carib.....BTW- the 0z GFS doesnt do squat with 94L.....

[ROCK]

0z GFDL liking 94L chances once again

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

this time hitting the Yucatan...rather than shooting the channel....similar run to the CMC...

[HouTXmetro]

So where does JB think it's going to go?

[KWT]

Well the key is firstly will it develop at all, conditions are ok but nothing stunning out there. Also the models really do vary with the track, I'm starting to believe that this just keeps on going W/WNW and heads towards centeral America though there is a weakness possibly there for it to turn into later on, we have to wait and see.

[USTropics]

The 00z runs are very interesting this morning. The HWRF, CMC, NOGAPS, and EURO appear to be taking 94L towards Hispaniola. While the GFDL remains the only model developing 94L into a significant system and continues it moving westward, it now has 95L initalizing to the north of the Lesser Antilles at about the same time that the 4 previous models have 94L impacting Hispaniola. The UKMET has the energy from 94L flirting with Hispaniola (for lack of a better term) but does not develop it. Also this is from the 2:00AM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PRES ARE FALLING 2 MB OVER THAT
AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW.

[Nimbus]

94L has been doing the usual yo yo convection thing for a few days now, but the models are predicting latitude gain and conditions look better for development.

Even though climo would sugggest that low lat storms don't spin up in the Caribbean if 94L is not a TD by tomorrows 11AM I will donate $5 to storm2k.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL:

WHXX04 KWBC 241127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 63.3 275./11.1
6 11.5 64.2 296./ 9.6
12 12.4 64.9 319./10.9
18 12.6 65.7 288./ 8.3
24 13.4 67.0 302./15.1
30 14.3 68.3 301./15.2
36 14.8 69.4 295./12.1
42 15.4 70.0 315./ 8.1
48 15.6 70.6 288./ 5.9
54 16.2 71.2 315./ 8.5
60 16.7 72.1 303./ 9.7
66 16.9 72.6 290./ 5.0
72 17.3 73.4 296./ 9.1
78 17.8 74.4 295./10.7
84 18.0 75.2 289./ 8.0
90 18.1 76.0 277./ 7.4
96 18.2 76.7 271./ 6.4
102 18.1 77.7 269./ 9.7
108 18.1 78.3 270./ 5.9
114 18.3 79.3 281./ 9.6
120 18.5 80.0 281./ 7.0
126 18.4 80.9 268./ 9.0

[USTropics]

I know the 06z runs do not always have the greatest data input but lo and behold, the 06z run of the GFS now looks to be forming something near Puerto Rico:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

The rest can be found here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml