ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

last year had a very destructive peak of the season

the peak this season so far has also been fairly destructive

Well, it really depends upon how you measure it. I'm not quantifying the "peak" based upon the severity of a tropical storm that happens to linger and drop tons of rain, and from what I understand, "Fay" is the only thing we've had during this "peak" so far......I know it was an intense tropical storm, but key word, "tropical storm".... Usually the peak brings us more activity, "fishies" included, and the conditions out there just aren't conducive for that... .Not complaining about it, just stating an observation. What I'm trying to say is, even the waves that do turn into a tropical storm, are having one heck of a struggle achieving anything beyond tropical storm status due to the very unfavorable conditions and you expect that during June and July, but not during late August.

[deltadog03]

I see some shear out there now, but its going away according to the shear tendency. Also, I have seen the WV and that tutt is not making too much progress into the carrib. There is a bit of shear, but nothing destructive as of now.

[Derek Ortt]

last year had a very destructive peak of the season

the peak this season so far has also been fairly destructive

Well, it really depends upon how you measure it. I'm not quantifying the "peak" based upon the severity of a tropical storm that happens to linger and drop tons of rain, and from what I understand, "Fay" is the only thing we've had during this "peak" so far......I know it was an intense tropical storm, but key word, "tropical storm".... Usually the peak brings us more activity, "fishies" included, and the conditions out there just aren't conducive for that... .Not complaining about it, just stating an observation. What I'm trying to say is, even the waves that do turn into a tropical storm, are having one heck of a struggle achieving anything beyond tropical storm status due to the very unfavorable conditions and you expect that during June and July, but not during late August.

Fay had very favorable conditions

it just had a fear of the water. That thing was a shoe in major hurricane had it moved 50 more miles offshore of NE Florida.

The conditions and storm were there. The storm track just was not

[Gustywind]

23/2345 UTC 11.5N 59.7W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
From T1.0/1.5 to "TOO WEAK" ...
23/1745 UTC 12.6N 58.4W T1.0/1.5 94L

[expat2carib]

Passed by here i guess,

Absolutely nothing to report. Business like usual, Nice weather.No winds or rain,

[cpdaman]

last year had a very destructive peak of the season

the peak this season so far has also been fairly destructive

Well, it really depends upon how you measure it. I'm not quantifying the "peak" based upon the severity of a tropical storm that happens to linger and drop tons of rain, and from what I understand, "Fay" is the only thing we've had during this "peak" so far......I know it was an intense tropical storm, but key word, "tropical storm".... Usually the peak brings us more activity, "fishies" included, and the conditions out there just aren't conducive for that... .Not complaining about it, just stating an observation. What I'm trying to say is, even the waves that do turn into a tropical storm, are having one heck of a struggle achieving anything beyond tropical storm status due to the very unfavorable conditions and you expect that during June and July, but not during late August.

Fay had very favorable conditions

it just had a fear of the water. That thing was a shoe in major hurricane had it moved 50 more miles offshore of NE Florida.

The conditions and storm were there. The storm track just was not

The gulf stream certainly was waiting , however she probably would have weakened to a weak cat 2 if she drifted onshore at 5 mph (since that's several hours in cooler waters)

[Clipper96]

Fay had very favorable conditions; it just had a fear of the water. That thing was a shoe in major hurricane had it moved 50 more miles offshore of NE Florida.

It was a shoo-in cat-4/5 had it tracked 50 miles south of its Greater Antilles run. Keep it fifty to the left of actual all the way up, and it would have wiped out the west-central Florida coast to Disneyland.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS WRITTEN ITS FINAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES ON FAY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

First time they've mentioned that a tropical depression could form.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Center appears to be near 11 north/63.8 west. It is under that super deep convection moving over thoses islands...

If it don't move more northward within the next 12-24 hours, we won't have to worry about devleopment because it will be inland.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

This adds support to my placement of the center. Partly over land, this won't form intil it moves all over the caribbean, but this yesterday mornings buttom quickcat shows a west wind just before it moved into that large island.

[Clipper96]

Your QuikSCAT data is almost twelve hours old, as the ascending pass is currently over the mid-Atlantic poised to sweep the region again: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/

I don't think we'd be seeing so big of a blow-up, with nothing adjacent on land, if the center were on partly onshore: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[KWT]

Well its still developing pretty deep convection so this certainly needs to be kept an eye on, as long as it can stay offshore then whilst ther eis some shear its not getting hit by the heart of the shear core quite so hard thanks to its very low latitude.

As for the peak season arguement, well look at 1961, didn't get really going till early September, far too soon to say the peak isn't going to do much.

[abajan]

Passed by here i guess,

Absolutely nothing to report. Business like usual, Nice weather.No winds or rain,

And Curacao got rain with thunder at 5:00 a.m. Most unusual weather for them. They have a semi-desert climate. I once had a classmate from Curacao who used to get very excited whenever he heard thunder.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

Pretty big blow-up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a new LLC is forming near or under the convection at 12.5 north/63.2 west or so. It has good shape with good upper levels as the tutt moves westward...Cimss shear maps shows that it now has 5 knots of upper level shear over it, and with that tutt moving westward a outflow channel is developing on the northwest side. So it looks to be organizing...Maybe I should play you know what because if this set up keeps up I could win!!!

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PAIRED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 69W IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA TODAY.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 241130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES
NORTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ALSO PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[bob rulz]

Way too early to write off this season. For all we know things could explode again come September, and October, November, and December have had a tendency to surprise us lately.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 240932
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2008

SATELLITE PHOTOS THIS MORNING SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THESE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE NOW
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEHIND IT FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS MAY BRING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE TERRITORY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN CHANCES.

FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN WIND AND SEAS IS
THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241023 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
621 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2008


.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS NOTICEABLE THIS
MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA MOVE WESTWARD AND
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVE
NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND ONE...HAS BEEN GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BY
THIS EVENING...WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO THE APPROACH OF THIS
WAVE...IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT AT SEA.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVE CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH TRANSLATE TO A WET WEEK FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.