ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

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gatorcane
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Re:

#21 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 23, 2008 11:16 am

fci wrote:I think 95L is another example of an Invest that is way too far north to be an issue for South Florida.

We had a similar situation last year; I want to say with one of the 92L's; the one that was in a simlar position the first week of September.

Many cite Andrew as being out by 20/50 and it came due west but that is far for the "norm".

I think that 95L, if it develops; will not be a South Florida issue and would only be a Carolina's issue and that it most likely would be a "fish".

That is IF it develops which I find unlikely.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


FCI I have to disagree with you. This invest is racing W or even WSW at about 20mph under some strong ridging that spans way westward into the Western Atlantic. Models are generally bringing this invest towards the Eastern Bahamas down the road. It needs to be watched even for those in South Florida.
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#22 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 23, 2008 11:21 am

:uarrow:

another important point is that this system should stay pretty weak over the next several days and wouldn't develop until farther west anyway -- these types of systems are the ones to really watch.
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#23 Postby Meso » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:15 pm

Image

12z CMC
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Re:

#24 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:22 pm

fci wrote:I think 95L is another example of an Invest that is way too far north to be an issue for South Florida.

We had a similar situation last year; I want to say with one of the 92L's; the one that was in a simlar position the first week of September.

Many cite Andrew as being out by 20/50 and it came due west but that is far for the "norm".

I think that 95L, if it develops; will not be a South Florida issue and would only be a Carolina's issue and that it most likely would be a "fish".

That is IF it develops which I find unlikely.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


The Hebert Box around 20N/60W really only applies to organized/named systems that move through that area from E to W. 95L likely will not be named, if ever, before 20N/60W.
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Re:

#25 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:23 pm

Meso wrote:Image

12z CMC


Is that 94L going into CA and 95L well east of the CONUS.
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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:54 pm

553
WHXX01 KWBC 231849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC SAT AUG 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080823 1800 080824 0600 080824 1800 080825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 50.0W 20.6N 53.5W 21.6N 56.3W 22.4N 58.6W
BAMD 19.6N 50.0W 20.4N 52.6W 21.1N 55.0W 21.8N 56.7W
BAMM 19.6N 50.0W 20.4N 52.9W 21.1N 55.5W 21.8N 57.5W
LBAR 19.6N 50.0W 20.5N 53.3W 21.3N 56.3W 21.9N 59.0W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080825 1800 080826 1800 080827 1800 080828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 60.3W 24.1N 62.4W 23.7N 64.4W 23.9N 67.2W
BAMD 22.6N 57.8W 23.9N 58.8W 24.8N 60.6W 26.0N 63.7W
BAMM 22.6N 58.9W 23.1N 60.4W 23.0N 62.1W 23.5N 65.3W
LBAR 22.7N 61.3W 23.4N 64.9W 23.2N 68.0W 22.2N 72.1W
SHIP 59KTS 69KTS 75KTS 80KTS
DSHP 59KTS 69KTS 75KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.6N LONCUR = 50.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 18.7N LONM12 = 45.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 41.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Image
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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#27 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:58 pm

Image


Ack! Extrapolation takes it to Palm Beach and Houston!!!

:P
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#28 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:07 pm

All depends on whether this develops quickly if at all, if it does get to be a hurricane then its going to tap into the deep steering currents and go well east of the USA, maybe Bermudam threat, whilst if it stays weak well the threat does shift a little further west.
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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#29 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:14 pm

well, if this one recurves as a fish and 94L doesn't pull up and rides the south america coast and emerges into the pacific, then the US may be in the clear until sometime in September...I mean really, what else out there is a threat??? Perhaps we may be entering a USA LULL for a couple of weeks...Fay has been a pain though, so we may have a nice break......
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#30 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:17 pm

most models take this invest to the west

Only CLIPER and HWRF send it out to sea
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#31 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:17 pm

Well I think 94L we have to wait and see, the ECM does take 95L in a very weak form towards Florida which means we can't take recurve for certain even though I think odds are rather high.

What should be noted is the upper high is pretty strong for a while...

Derek, models also keep this an invest as well...I think it develops and there is enough of a weakness progged that this launches into it, stays weak till 60-65W then we may have an issue...
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Re:

#32 Postby fci » Sun Aug 24, 2008 1:16 am

Derek Ortt wrote:most models take this invest to the west

Only CLIPER and HWRF send it out to sea


I don't know Derek.

The models I see all take 95L out to sea except the extrap which is no model at all and jus the current movement.

This is WAY too north to be a SFL event; IF it ever develops anyway.
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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#33 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 24, 2008 1:58 am

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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#34 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 24, 2008 3:08 am

I don't think I'd really trust those models quite yet. Lots of stuff going on out there in the upper atmosphere to the west.
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#35 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 24, 2008 3:21 am

Thats not 95L the ECM is progging, its some other system it develops in the Caribbean.
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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#36 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 24, 2008 3:47 am

That's actually 94L that it's developing it appears. HWRF and NOGAPS are also bringing 94L towards Hispaniola as a weak system. This part of the TWD is very interesting:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PRES ARE FALLING 2 MB OVER THAT
AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW.


NHC has downgraded 95L to low chance of developing as well.

Another side note, looking at 00z run of GFDL it is now initializing 95L to the north of Lesser Antilles at about the same time that the 3 previous models stated have 94L impacting Hispaniola. Find that very interesting as well.
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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2008 8:07 am

545
WHXX01 KWBC 241245
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080824 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080824 1200 080825 0000 080825 1200 080826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 55.0W 22.6N 57.5W 23.7N 59.4W 24.6N 60.4W
BAMD 21.5N 55.0W 22.5N 56.9W 23.6N 58.1W 24.8N 58.6W
BAMM 21.5N 55.0W 22.6N 57.2W 23.5N 58.8W 24.4N 59.4W
LBAR 21.5N 55.0W 22.8N 57.2W 23.8N 59.0W 24.7N 60.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080826 1200 080827 1200 080828 1200 080829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 61.0W 25.6N 61.2W 26.6N 61.2W 28.1N 62.3W
BAMD 25.9N 58.7W 27.1N 59.7W 29.1N 60.4W 31.6N 61.0W
BAMM 24.8N 59.6W 25.1N 59.8W 26.4N 59.8W 28.2N 60.7W
LBAR 25.3N 61.7W 26.2N 62.9W 28.1N 64.8W 31.2N 65.9W
SHIP 46KTS 56KTS 65KTS 74KTS
DSHP 46KTS 56KTS 65KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.5N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 20.3N LONM12 = 51.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 47.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Image
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#38 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 24, 2008 12:22 pm

Looks like this invest is heading out to sea according to the models, still the SHIPS are strengthening this system still but don't think it will do anything still.
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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#39 Postby Clipper96 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 7:33 pm

It'll probably decouple like all the other die-offs this year, with clouds heading north while exposed center continues west.
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Re: Invest 95L Model Runs

#40 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 25, 2008 4:58 pm

Wow,they changed to the more south area of convection.I think this system is what the EURO develops.

WHXX01 KWBC 252117
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2117 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080825 1800 080826 0600 080826 1800 080827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 53.3W 18.5N 54.6W 19.4N 55.5W 20.1N 56.0W
BAMD 18.0N 53.3W 18.3N 54.3W 18.6N 55.0W 18.9N 55.7W
BAMM 18.0N 53.3W 18.4N 54.4W 18.9N 55.3W 19.4N 56.1W
LBAR 18.0N 53.3W 17.9N 54.1W 17.7N 55.4W 17.5N 57.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080827 1800 080828 1800 080829 1800 080830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.3N 56.2W 24.4N 57.2W 28.2N 60.1W 31.3N 62.8W
BAMD 19.5N 56.3W 21.4N 57.7W 23.6N 59.5W 25.5N 61.1W
BAMM 20.2N 56.7W 22.4N 58.2W 24.9N 60.4W 27.4N 62.1W
LBAR 17.2N 58.6W 17.7N 62.3W 19.7N 67.0W 22.2N 71.5W
SHIP 54KTS 67KTS 72KTS 75KTS
DSHP 54KTS 67KTS 72KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 52.8W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 52.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Image
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