ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cpdaman]

i think 94L may be enjoying the best UL conditions it will have in it's life now.

look at the ULL that dug all the way down, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

long term shear forecasts are notoriously crap, i think this may peak in the carib, and then have a battle royale w/ shear. 94 L if you want to be a big boy stay WNW (central cuba westward)

[alan1961]

someone correct me if i'm wrong..but is that an MLC forming under the highest convection on the floater RGB sat loop?

[cheezyWXguy]

i think 94L may be enjoying the best UL conditions it will have in it's life now.

look at the ULL that dug all the way down, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

long term shear forecasts are notoriously crap, i think this may peak in the carib, and then have a battle royale w/ shear. 94 L if you want to be a big boy stay WNW (central cuba westward)

That is actually the track I am expecting right now. I just cannot see such a weak storm turning north so quickly. That would be like a sudden 90 degree angle turn to the north. It would need to be turning now in order for such a path to occur and its not. If it goes north of jamaica then it will encounter unfavorable conditions... but if it goes south, conditions are more favorable for development and northward turn is more likely to occur then than now.

[Clipper96]

someone correct me if i'm wrong..but is that an MLC forming under the highest convection on the floater RGB sat loop?

It's daytime. Look at visible floater loops for highest definition.

This is a good one: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[abajan]

I had a feeling 94L was a go when I saw it a couple of days ago and took a look at the synoptics setup (look back a couple of days ago at my posts on this system). Code red by NHC is imminent probably within the next couple of advisories.

I haven't had alot of time to analyze current and future synoptics so have been checking in from time-to-time on this one and browsing member posts for updates -- will probably get some more time in about 24 hours.

I smell a STDS on 94L soon. And I don't intend to eat any crow either! (It just looks to good not to develop.)

[alan1961]

someone correct me if i'm wrong..but is that an MLC forming under the highest convection on the floater RGB sat loop?

It's daytime. Look at visible floater loops for highest definition.

This is a good one: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

what i mean by the RGB clipper is the slightly different colour of the cloud under the highest convection..that really can't be detected on the visible because it all looks the same even though the rotation is there.

[deltadog03]

Ok, I see the shear zone, but its not digging that fast....This thing is moving fairly quickly...Should outrun that when and if it gets too the caribb.

[tolakram]

RGB Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

I see shear blowing the tops off to the south.

[Clipper96]

long term shear forecasts are notoriously crap, i think this may peak in the carib, and then have a battle royale w/ shear. 94 L if you want to be a big boy stay WNW (central cuba westward)

If 94 takes a fairly standard gently-curving WNW-NW-NNW track, it'll run under Jamaica, then somewhere around or close either side of the Yucatan channel toward an eventual central or northwestern Gulf coast strike. Furthermore, if it's a cat-2 south of Jamaica, it'll be a cat-4/5 within 48hrs after that, and throw up so much cirrus that it'll bury every ULL in remote proximity. 94 already has a sprawling windfield.

If we're lucky, it'll hit that hurricane-magnet in southern Texas where there's nothing but scrub-land.

[cycloneye]

[alan1961]

RGB Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

I see shear blowing the tops off to the south.

yes tolakram and that explains the diminishing deepest convection on IR

[cheezyWXguy]

RGB Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

I see shear blowing the tops off to the south.

yes tolakram and that explains the diminishing deepest convection on IR

I think thats actually outflow that you are seeing. Shear is not really affecting the southern side of this system, onlt the northern side if at all. Convection is dieing because this is not fully developed yet. It dies and pulses back. Its already happening again, new convection over the center.

[jlauderdal]

cycloneye, do you the last one of those you posted, how about posting them both so we can see the difference, thx

J

[Clipper96]

someone correct me if i'm wrong..but is that an MLC forming under the highest convection on the floater RGB sat loop?

It's daytime. Look at visible floater loops for highest definition.

what i mean by the RGB clipper is the slightly different colour of the cloud under the highest convection..that really can't be detected on the visible because it all looks the same even though the rotation is there.

It looks the same on crappier imagery, but on the better ones there's sufficient detail, and warmer/lower clouds will have a different texture.

Just coming into view of the eastconus ghcc, which offers the highest zoom magnification and quickest updating that I'm aware of: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Sanibel]

The black IR it showed last night is the main red flag.

The convection in the wave-like feature immediately to its west could weaken 94L in the short term.

[msbee]

Passed by here i guess,

Absolutely nothing to report. Business like usual, Nice weather.No winds or rain,

And Curacao got rain with thunder at 5:00 a.m. Most unusual weather for them. They have a semi-desert climate. I once had a classmate from Curacao who used to get very excited whenever he heard thunder.

Curacao also had a tornado which destroyed 40 homes. No one hurt thankfully.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/curacao.shtml

You Tube videos of the storm and damage

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmnjBBf5 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUhW7jdHZJU

[Sanibel]

That's tornado damage no matter how much they say it was weak. (Energy)

[Blown Away]

Is this a central Caribbean & Bahama system or a W Caribbean system? Most of the models bring 94L towards the W Caribbean?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is this a central Caribbean & Bahama system or a W Caribbean system? Most of the models bring 94L towards the W Caribbean?

Looks like if its anything its a south of cuba system...Fay will leave a weakness..

[Clipper96]

Curacao also had a tornado which destroyed 40 homes. No one hurt thankfully.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUhW7jdHZJU

Good example of a "landspout" tornado (distinguished from a supercell tornado, which has a different atmospheric profile usually involving strong vertical wind-shear and a rear-flank downdraft). Since they are weak and easily disrupted by friction, virtually all landspout tornadoes occur near bodies of water or over flat land devoid of much vegetation.