ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[T'Bonz]

I hope this tanks.

Last week was all Fay, all the time. Tuesday here. Later in the week, affecting travel for my middle girl, who was going to Melbourne. My youngest couldn't get back up to Tallahassee until Fay fell apart today.

Is the hurricane season over yet? One long-lasting annoying tropical storm and I'm ready for it to end!

May they all be fishes from here on out.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be organizing this morning. I agree on a more WNW motion toward Jamaica or Eastern Cuba, she would have to start turning soon to make it to Hispaniola IMO.

[gatorcane]

I think the models may have initialized this low too far south. Looking at the latest VIS loops, I see some broad cyclonic turning at a lattitude of about 13-14N heading WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[ConvergenceZone]

derek do you actually think conditions will be favorable in the central northern caribean

i mean there is some heavy shear from the north around that ULL that doesn't appear to be in a hurry to move, isn't this shear a bit of a wild card, or am i wrong.

I dont see favorable conditions

if this develops, it could easily go the way of HWRF... a short lived sheared TS

hmm, if so, that follows right in line with my original thinking, just one of those "unfavorable conditions" years....... Seems to hit every storm that develops....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who has the 12Z canadian?

[Derek Ortt]

derek do you actually think conditions will be favorable in the central northern caribean

i mean there is some heavy shear from the north around that ULL that doesn't appear to be in a hurry to move, isn't this shear a bit of a wild card, or am i wrong.

I dont see favorable conditions

if this develops, it could easily go the way of HWRF... a short lived sheared TS

hmm, if so, that follows right in line with my original thinking, just one of those "unfavorable conditions" years....... Seems to hit every storm that develops....

That's not entirely accurate

Fay had very favorable conditions, except for a brief time in the WC.

most systems, even in very active years, even at the peak, do not encounter very favorable conditions. Those that do are called Andrew, Katrina, Wilma, etc

[Dean4Storms]

When is the next QScat Pass? I see rotation and convection refiring around the center of rotation which is not a good sign. The 12Z Canadian develops this and takes it towards eastern Cuba then what appears to be a deepening TC toward the SE GOM.

[Meso]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who has the 12Z canadian?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Guess I do..LOL

How many inches of rain FL get?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some of the models look concerning. Is there forecasted
to be a trough that turns this northward towards the Gulf of
Mexico???

[deltadog03]

Yes, there will be a weakness in the GOM...From fay!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks deltadog!
This will have to be watched closely.

[Wx_Warrior]

Nothing to get excited about with new EURO

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081312!!/

[x-y-no]

Nothing to get excited about with new EURO

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081312!!/

In terms of intensity, that's true - it keeps it very weak.

In terms of track, a little concerning - it turns it north across Cuba headed at SFL on day 7.

[DeanDaDream]

In terms of track, a little concerning - it turns it north across Cuba headed at SFL on day 7

What model shows this?

[JonathanBelles]

In terms of track, a little concerning - it turns it north across Cuba headed at SFL on day 7

What model shows this?

The one that he quoted The Euro.

[NOLA 30N90W]

The weakness from Fay in the GOM, will be in the central GOM, not the eastern.

Again, outside of 72hrs., it's a roll of the dice. No need to be alarmed at this point.

[DeanDaDream]

In terms of track, a little concerning - it turns it north across Cuba headed at SFL on day 7

What model shows this?

The one that he quoted The Euro.

Thanks I see it now.

[gatorcane]

Nothing to get excited about with new EURO

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081312!!/

In terms of intensity, that's true - it keeps it very weak.

In terms of track, a little concerning - it turns it north across Cuba headed at SFL on day 7.

Yes, a hit from the Caribbean tracking right through SE FL -- a bit concerning I have to admit. Although models are likely to change, the weakness left behind by Fay may turn out to be problematic and should turn whatever heads into the Caribbean NW before reaching the Western Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

TAFB wind forecast shows 94L moving generally NW or WNW towards Jamaica: