ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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HURAKAN
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#881 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:13 pm

Looks like it's in its way to TD 7. Convection developing during DMIN and the rotation is impossible to miss.
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Re: Re:

#882 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:To me it looks like its already gaining appreciable lattitude and that turn to the NW-WNW may be commencing soon enough.


what direction do you have it going now?


I see WNW right now. I'm using this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


ok so you think it will head more NW in the future
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#883 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#884 Postby ericinmia » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:19 pm

I know this is IR, and I am really not trying to track a Mid or Low level circulation... because at this point there isn't much to track and I don't want to get dizzy/headache. :) But it appears the majority of the convection has moved NW today... Many times with a weak system like this, especially since it is still a wave axis, there is a higher probability that the center will reform/move with the large amounts of sustained convection.

It's sort of a nuclear 'Home improvement" sunday, so i'm not really in the mood for any sort of dedicated analysis... so my ideas could be way off base here but those last few frames of IR really do appear that the main convection has moved NW today. Maybe PR is in for some rain/storms?
-Eric

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... im8ir.html

Image
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#885 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:21 pm

This should be a player in the gulf of mexico eventually, in my opinion....I don't think the shear will be near as bad as folks think, probably enough though to prevent rapid intensification....
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#886 Postby tpr1967 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:23 pm

Hey guys check out the bouy report just n of possible center.2 mb pressure drops in 24 hrs and increasing winds in thunderstorms.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059
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#887 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:25 pm

Yeah I agree wxman57 I've been seeing about a 285 motion over a longer term though the last 2hrs does seem to be a good bit further north, may well be close to 290-295 now. Still very tough to call whether this hits hispaniola, looks like its going to come very close indeed!

Also does indeed look like its developing into a tropical system, though the NHC may wait till recon unless it become perfectly obvious this is a TD...
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#888 Postby Tropicswatcher » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:40 pm

Look at that solid line of thunderstorms heading northward :


Image
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Clipper96

#889 Postby Clipper96 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:41 pm

The center is southwest of the sundown blow-up; which should circle southwest as it orbits around and eventually becomes co-located with the LLC. - This may fake people out into thinking movement is left of WNW.
Last edited by Clipper96 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#890 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:42 pm

Don't dismiss a crazy center jump into that round convection burst up near 15.5N

If that happens we are talking huge jump N of NW.
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Re:

#891 Postby Clipper96 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:44 pm

Clipper96 wrote:The center is southwest of the sundown blow-up; which should circle southwest as it orbits around and eventually becomes co-located with the LLC. - This may fake people out into thinking movement is left of WNW.
...just as some are now being faked out into thinking it's right of WNW. :wink:
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#892 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:45 pm

Was just taking a good look at the lower level winds across the southern and central Caribbean and I think that most of the models may be steering us the wrong way as far as where this system may go. First of all, it's definitely zipping along at about 16-18 kts over the past 6-12 hours. I looked at the latest analysis of 850mb winds across the Caribbean and I see 15-25 kt winds out of the east all the way to Honduras. At the rate 94L is moving, it'll be passing Haiti tomorrow afternoon (longitude-wise) at a time when both GFS and Canadian (that turn the system north) still show easterly winds at 15-20 kts from about 18N south to South America.

Now, to move to where the European has it at 168 hrs (over central Cuba) it would have to average only 4.6 kts forward speed from now until then. And the Euro doesn't have it near Haiti for 4 DAYS! At the speed it's moving now, that would be closer to 24 hrs, not 4 days.

Global models definitely see a weakness in the ridge developing by late Monday or Tuesday near the DR and eastern Cuba. But by that time, 94L may be well west of that weakness and heading toward Honduras/Nicaragua.

So my thinking is that it bypasses any developing weakness over eastern Cuba/DR because it's moving too fast now and won't be at that longitude when the weakness develops. With a ridge over the NE Gulf and southeast U.S., steering currents should take it into Central America, perhaps the southern Yucatan in about 60-72 hours. That's allowing for some slowing.

Oh, and the last good position I got (2215Z) was about 13.8N/68.5W. Not a lot of surface obs nearby, but what few there are don't indicate any LLC yet.
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#893 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:52 pm

That far west wxman57?
I'd have placed it around 67.5W closer to that SW blow up of convection but who knows. What I do agree with you is the models are getting this one wrong at the moment, its moving a good deal faster then the models prog, I clocked about 19mph over 12hrs a few hours ago based on a rough estimate so even if thats off its still pretty much hurtling along, probably 290 would be my guess at the current motion.

wman57, what about the weakness left by Fay could that not indcue a more northerly track in the western Caribbean...got to agree though this looks Yucatan bound I rekcon, then who knows from there...
Last edited by KWT on Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#894 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:Was just taking a good look at the lower level winds across the southern and central Caribbean and I think that most of the models may be steering us the wrong way as far as where this system may go. First of all, it's definitely zipping along at about 16-18 kts over the past 6-12 hours. I looked at the latest analysis of 850mb winds across the Caribbean and I see 15-25 kt winds out of the east all the way to Honduras. At the rate 94L is moving, it'll be passing Haiti tomorrow afternoon (longitude-wise) at a time when both GFS and Canadian (that turn the system north) still show easterly winds at 15-20 kts from about 18N south to South America.

Now, to move to where the European has it at 168 hrs (over central Cuba) it would have to average only 4.6 kts forward speed from now until then. And the Euro doesn't have it near Haiti for 4 DAYS! At the speed it's moving now, that would be closer to 24 hrs, not 4 days.

Global models definitely see a weakness in the ridge developing by late Monday or Tuesday near the DR and eastern Cuba. But by that time, 94L may be well west of that weakness and heading toward Honduras/Nicaragua.

So my thinking is that it bypasses any developing weakness over eastern Cuba/DR because it's moving too fast now and won't be at that longitude when the weakness develops. With a ridge over the NE Gulf and southeast U.S., steering currents should take it into Central America, perhaps the southern Yucatan in about 60-72 hours. That's allowing for some slowing.

Oh, and the last good position I got (2215Z) was about 13.8N/68.5W. Not a lot of surface obs nearby, but what few there are don't indicate any LLC yet.




thanks for your input...that puts to rest a lot in here for the time being... :D


Deltadog- right on! :D
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Derek Ortt

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#895 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:Was just taking a good look at the lower level winds across the southern and central Caribbean and I think that most of the models may be steering us the wrong way as far as where this system may go. First of all, it's definitely zipping along at about 16-18 kts over the past 6-12 hours. I looked at the latest analysis of 850mb winds across the Caribbean and I see 15-25 kt winds out of the east all the way to Honduras. At the rate 94L is moving, it'll be passing Haiti tomorrow afternoon (longitude-wise) at a time when both GFS and Canadian (that turn the system north) still show easterly winds at 15-20 kts from about 18N south to South America.

Now, to move to where the European has it at 168 hrs (over central Cuba) it would have to average only 4.6 kts forward speed from now until then. And the Euro doesn't have it near Haiti for 4 DAYS! At the speed it's moving now, that would be closer to 24 hrs, not 4 days.

Global models definitely see a weakness in the ridge developing by late Monday or Tuesday near the DR and eastern Cuba. But by that time, 94L may be well west of that weakness and heading toward Honduras/Nicaragua.

So my thinking is that it bypasses any developing weakness over eastern Cuba/DR because it's moving too fast now and won't be at that longitude when the weakness develops. With a ridge over the NE Gulf and southeast U.S., steering currents should take it into Central America, perhaps the southern Yucatan in about 60-72 hours. That's allowing for some slowing.

Oh, and the last good position I got (2215Z) was about 13.8N/68.5W. Not a lot of surface obs nearby, but what few there are don't indicate any LLC yet.


however, that's assuming that the center does not relocate farther north. If it does, it will be closer to the developing weakness (there already is a deep layer weakness present)

This should move much quicker than the EURO is suggesting. However, I can see this getting quite close to Haiti in about 36-48 hours.. I also expect to see some slowing soon once it moves to the longitude of the weakness
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#896 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:01 pm

Watch for relocation!:


Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#897 Postby Clipper96 » Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:05 pm

I'm skeptical of a relocation in this instance; I've seen this situation before. The big blow-up is in the maximum convergence section of the northern feeder band; this zone of best convergence will spiral inward toward the LLC provided the system remains unsheared.
wxman57 wrote:....Now, to move to where the European has it at 168 hrs (over central Cuba) it would have to average only 4.6 kts forward speed from now until then. And the Euro doesn't have it near Haiti for 4 DAYS! At the speed it's moving now, that would be closer to 24 hrs, not 4 days.
The snail-crawler models are definitely out-to-lunch, but don't be surprised if proto-Gustav slows down once he's reach TS or Hurr. I've observed in the past that big storms over deep heat content just "eat" low-level steering as if it were so much extra fuel, exhibiting strange and contrary movement in the process (e.g., Katrina). What are speeds at 700mb?
wxman57 wrote:Oh, and the last good position I got (2215Z) was about 13.8N/68.5W. Not a lot of surface obs nearby, but what few there are don't indicate any LLC yet.
That's quite reasonable; it's down the line from my earlier estimation of 13.5/67.5.
Last edited by Clipper96 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#898 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:06 pm

That does look pretty close, if it does relocate then on current track it clips Haiti however we shall see, I think this has a very good chance of developing though based on what its doing currently.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Eastern Caribbean Sea

#899 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:06 pm

My gut is a Southern runner, but JB (just a very short post today, referring to the Canadian model., not certain what he was trying to say) has been implying a SE US threat for the holiday weekend.


I don't want to hazzard even an unofficial and amateur guesstimate yet since I don't think anyone knows for sure whether center develops (if it does) in area of maximum turning, or area of deepest convection.


If this is menacing the SE US next week, I'll be gone Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon. Florida Atlantic at Texas in Austin. Might be better than average out of conference season opener against small conference 'victim', as Schnellenberger has turned FAU into a winner very quickly. I hope the hotel has TWC. Poor substitute for S2K, but beggars can't be choosers.


Edit for spelling.
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#900 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:09 pm

To be fair though Ed I think JB is keen for everything to head into the SE states this year from what I've seen!

Clipper96, I think we saw something similar (though a little different with pre Fay actually the MLC was with the best convergence and yet the LLC ended up doing the job.
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