ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

My gut is a Southern runner, but JB (just a very short post today, referring to the Canadian model., not certain what he was trying to say) has been implying a SE US threat for the holiday weekend.


I don't want to hazzard even an unofficial and amateur guesstimate yet since I don't think anyone knows for sure whether center develops (if it does) in area of maximum turning, or area of deepest convection.


If this is menacing the SE US next week, I'll be gone Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon. Florida Atlantic at Texas in Austin. Might be better than average out of conference season opener against small conference 'victim', as Schnellenberger has turned FAU into a winner very quickly. I hope the hotel has TWC. Poor substitute for S2K, but beggars can't be choosers.


Edit for spelling.

LOL ed needs a labtop bad..

[Sanibel]

The big blow-up is in the maximum convergence section of the northern feeder band; this zone of best convergence will spiral inward toward the LLC provided the system remains unsheared.

Tail wagging the dog with that burst and curvature, son.

[Clipper96]

Tail wagging the dog with that burst and curvature, son.

We'll see! It's what lawn chairs and popcorn are for.


My ridiculously long-range and completely unofficial forecast cone is between New Orleans and Tampico, Mexico. In the short-term, the center will pass well south of Haiti, and likely south of Jamaica as well. Cancun is currently the highest probably first strike target.

The presently-flapping butterfly most likely to screw that all up is if Fay is still around parked over the southern Mississippi Valley (as she is currently threatening), in which case she amplifies ridging in the southeastern Gulf, and Gustav trends west and runs into Central America.

[Brent]

Watch for relocation!:

WOW... looks extremely impressive.

[KWT]

The main convection is to the NE of the MLC however Brent but yeah thats real deep convection for you as you'd expect in the Caribbean with decent conditions aloft.

You'd have to think its only a matter of time before it does develop unless it takes a right detour...

[AJC3]

Not really confident here, as we're talking about a formative system...but if you twisted my arm, I'd probably go with the center trying to consolidate farther north along the wave axis near 15W, followed by a reduction in forward speed once the system passes 70W. My bet is that it passes very close to Jamaica...maybe not quite as far north as the SW Haitian peninsula, but I don't think it's out of the question either.

[Javlin]

Well let me throw my 0.02 in here and I would have to go with WX57 and Clipper even on the last frames of VIS the low level clouds are tight and visilbe at 13.5 or so.If we had a weak circulation overall with a slow forward motion I bite on the relocation not this time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[SouthFLTropics]

What an absolutely complicated mess between Cuba, South America, and Hispanola...I wouldn't even want to venture a guess at this time where this thing is going or how strong it may get. I'm glad I'm not a forecaster...This one has the makes of a tracking and intensity nightmare.

SFT

[jaxfladude]

SORRY THE STATE OF FLORIDA IS LONGER NO ADMITTING ANY MORE TOURISTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM KIND......
not to say screw you to all the other places at all.

[wxman57]

Well, perhaps we'll have a better idea of where it may form by tomorrow. Unfortunately, we have to issue 7-day tracks on such disturbances to our clients. I discussed with my on-duty forecaster the possibility of a forked track. One west, one turning north.

[SouthFLTropics]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Alright...after taking a look at the water vapor and taking into account a few variables I am going to go out on a limb here and take a shot at a forecast track. Short term, I would say that this system will shoot the gap between Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispanola. After that a track South of Cuba seems likely until it nears the Yucatan Channel. From there it is anybodies guess and I don't have enough information at this time to make even an educated guess. As far as intensity goes I would think that when it is near the islands it will deal with shear as well as land interaction. Once it gets towards western cuba we could see some more intensification. JMO...Comments are welcome.

SFT

[cpdaman]

Oh, and the last good position I got (2215Z) was about 13.8N/68.5W. Not a lot of surface obs nearby, but what few there are don't indicate any LLC yet.

WXMAN you didn't talk much of a reformation/shift north of any potential LLC north of 13.8 on the wav axis, i hear you say to follow the convection alot and the convection is to the NNE by 16/67 are you ruling out a center reformation/consolidation somewhere in the area of 15.5 /69 in the wee hours?


from which it would probably move about 280-285 until late monday when the fun begins and we see if it sniffs the trough ( i'm think it will be at about 17 /74.5 W then)

[AJC3]

Well, perhaps we'll have a better idea of where it may form by tomorrow. Unfortunately, we have to issue 7-day tracks on such disturbances to our clients. I discussed with my on-duty forecaster the possibility of a forked track. One west, one turning north.

So if your primary forecast shows a more westward track, I guess your north track would include a "waffle cone".

Yeah, I know, I know...bad joke.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION WITH THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CONVENTIONAL AND
REMOTELY-SENSED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW OR ON TUESDAY AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[jlauderdal]

Well, perhaps we'll have a better idea of where it may form by tomorrow. Unfortunately, we have to issue 7-day tracks on such disturbances to our clients. I discussed with my on-duty forecaster the possibility of a forked track. One west, one turning north.

great, how about releasing that forked track for our reading pleasure

[KWT]

cpdaman, the thing is there is also some decent convection near the MLC as well it seems, sure the deepest convection is further north but the thing is there is a decent MLC present and I don't think that a LLC would come from anywhere else other then from that part of the wave.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, perhaps we'll have a better idea of where it may form by tomorrow. Unfortunately, we have to issue 7-day tracks on such disturbances to our clients. I discussed with my on-duty forecaster the possibility of a forked track. One west, one turning north.

great, how about releasing that forked track for our reading pleasure

I guess that would mean that the cone of error would be between Belize City, Belize and New York City, New York...LOL

SFT

[Stormcenter]

I know you guys get tired of reading these but as always "I'll believe it when I see it". I'm not worried about 94L....until it actually develops.

[MGC]

Decent mid level spin, but haven't we seen this before several time already this season. 94L might take its time to develope a surface circulation and appears to be headed WNW to NW as I see it on the satellite loop, headed to the developing weakness Dereck was discussing. Just looking at things I don't think recon will find a surface circulation tomorrow if they fly......MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[KWT]

If it holds the convection likepresently recon will almost certainly fly into this system, deep convection with a strong MLC is quite possibly enough for a code red I'd imagine. Nothing at the surface yet but its getting there, who knows how long it will takes but I think it gets there faster than Dolly...