ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

I really see a possible RI when this system gets a little further Northwest under Haiti , conditions seem favorable and the water temps ramp up over the nw carribean.

I would temper that since Fay transited the same waters without any intensification. 94L is also having trouble getting a center together so the same conditions could be at play.

Fay had just gone over the entire Dominican Republic and had little time to get it's structure back before going over Cuba and Florida. This system figures to have very little land interaction foir awhile.

Likely, if it does develop, to be bad news for a lot of people....

[jlauderdal]

Well, perhaps we'll have a better idea of where it may form by tomorrow. Unfortunately, we have to issue 7-day tracks on such disturbances to our clients. I discussed with my on-duty forecaster the possibility of a forked track. One west, one turning north.

great, how about releasing that forked track for our reading pleasure

private forecasts costs a good deal of money

so a fork track is like two forecasts for the price of one i guess..

kind of like a stockbroker saying well it might go up or might go down..

[Clipper96]

This storm is getting more organized by the hour. Below, it looks like a "fat-tailed #6"; this afternoon, it was all "tail", or a bean-shaped arc. Later tonight, the bulb of the 6 should fire a more symmetrical burst of convection while the top band dies down.

[Tampa_God]

It certainly looks like this storm is trying to become more compact and trying to get convection all around it's center. At the moment, my guess is the direction is dead West. Possibly taking more of a WNW movement by tomorrow morning.

[Dean4Storms]

Well it is currently in the Zone of Death of the Carib. but once it gets west of 70W lookout.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

24/2345 UTC 13.7N 67.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Sanibel]

Hang out. Take a closer look at Shortwave and that center could be more WNW and further N than you realize.

[Clipper96]

(Per last frame, Cycloneye's fix is right on the money.)

Link for the loop of pic below: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

This storm is getting more organized by the hour. Below, it looks like a "fat-tailed #6"; this afternoon, it was all "tail", or a bean-shaped arc. Later tonight, the bulb of the 6 should fire a more symmetrical burst of convection while the top band dies down.

[jaxfladude]

Red Alert in the next 24 hours?

[cycloneye]

(Per last frame, Cycloneye's fix is right on the money.)

Just to clarify,that position is not mines but from SSD Dvorak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[SouthFLTropics]

As much as I hate making comparisons to previous storms I just cannot help but notice some same features on Charley's track shown above...By no means am I saying it is going to follow this track but with it forming in the same general area and SOME models showing the same general track, well it's worth looking at...

SFT

[AtlanticWind]

(Per last frame, Cycloneye's fix is right on the money.)

Just to clarify,that position is not mines but from SSD Dvorak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

That position looks right to me

[fasterdisaster]

I think it's too far south to follow Charley.

[wxman57]

one thing we do need... as of 2100 UTC the low level convergence was not very good at all.

Remember that with Fay and Dolly (the last 94L)... we did not see development until the low level convergence became well-established

It's hard to get low-level convergence when the forward speed is so high. It'll have to slow down, first.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think it's too far south to follow Charley.

Where it is now is not where it will be in a few days. It will be in the same general vicinity that charley was. i doubt the same synoptic setup will be there again though. are we expecting another very deep diving front? if not, this shouldn't take any hard right turns. in fact, shouldn't it just follow the weakness left by Fay?

[Derek Ortt]

Fay had just gone over the entire Dominican Republic and had little time to get it's structure back before going over Cuba and Florida. This system figures to have very little land interaction foir awhile.

Uncertain.

A good comparison would be Dean and Felix that tracked across the same area with much better organization by this point. Fay had plenty of prime waters to rebound and didn't. I expect hurricane from this if it stays overwater. Right outliers are busting right now.

Highly untrue, Sanibel

Fay did NOT have anything close to enough time over the water to rebound. it kept clipping land. When it was organizing south of Cuba, it went over land. It then went over Florida as it was about to undergo RI. Did not make it far enough off of Florida to RI on either coast

[Sanibel]

Could there be a ULL over it giving those false centers?

Highly untrue, Sanibel

While it did get some lagging disruption from Hispaniola it is my opinion that it had enough time to go stronger than the 60mph it entered Cuba at. I'm too lazy to do the research, but I suspect you could find similar tracks over those prime south of Cuba SST's where storms took the same time and did much better. A good example would be Fay's structure quirks near Key West. The environment was too hostile for potential peak intensity - which was the point to begin with. In fact I would even entertain doubts whether an overwater track would have done too much better.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB's latest video says 95L, which is two waves merging, per JB, will deflect 94L more Northward than mean steering would indicate. JB sees possibly 3 threats to SE US, 94L, 95L and wave coming off Africa.

[Derek Ortt]

Well it is currently in the Zone of Death of the Carib. but once it gets west of 70W lookout.

there is no zone of death in the Carib. A bad myth that ahs been dispelled many times in recent years