ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[KWT]

Of course Clipper96 what Fay does is very important, it seems even when its beyond the grave it will still play a role...

RL3AO, I think it may well be I'm not sure.

[terrapintransit]

[Wx_Warrior]

From EURO Florida, GFDL channel and GFS (nothing)...It will be a fun week full of "Texas be ready" to "Florida, not again"...

Doesn't football start this week?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 250039
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0039 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080825 0000 080825 1200 080826 0000 080826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 67.7W 14.7N 70.0W 15.9N 71.8W 17.1N 73.3W
BAMD 13.5N 67.7W 14.8N 70.1W 15.9N 72.0W 16.3N 73.9W
BAMM 13.5N 67.7W 14.9N 70.1W 16.2N 72.1W 17.1N 73.8W
LBAR 13.5N 67.7W 15.1N 70.3W 16.6N 72.6W 17.9N 74.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080827 0000 080828 0000 080829 0000 080830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 74.4W 19.4N 76.6W 19.8N 79.3W 20.5N 82.3W
BAMD 16.5N 75.7W 16.3N 79.2W 15.6N 82.5W 15.4N 86.4W
BAMM 17.7N 75.0W 17.8N 77.6W 17.3N 80.4W 17.3N 83.9W
LBAR 18.8N 76.1W 19.6N 79.0W 19.2N 82.1W 18.6N 85.7W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 72KTS 79KTS
DSHP 55KTS 52KTS 64KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 67.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 64.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 62.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[blp]

18Z NOGAPS still on the northern side of the guidance. Right now looks like the northern outlier. Takes it right over DR/Haiti.

144hr


Loop

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008082418

[jaxfladude]

From EURO Florida, GFDL channel and GFS (nothing)...It will be a fun week full of "Texas be ready" to "Florida, not again"...
Doesn't football start this week?

Yes the Florida Gators play The Warriors of Hawaii
This Saturday Aug. 30th...12:30 pm E/ 7:30am H

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC SHIP forecast continues to show mainly light shear.

Code: Select all

  *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  08/25/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    37    41    49    55    60    65    69    72    76    79
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    37    41    49    55    60    52    61    64    68    71
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    28    30    32    38    45    51    60    73    79    85    90

SHEAR (KTS)        5     1     5     7     5    15     9    16     7    14     6     7     4
SHEAR DIR        110   115     9    24    32    19    43    14    44    22    95    40   135
SST (C)         28.6  28.7  28.6  28.6  28.6  28.8  29.0  29.0  29.1  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.9
POT. INT. (KT)   147   148   146   146   146   147   150   150   152   149   149   148   149
ADJ. POT. INT.   150   149   145   142   140   138   139   138   140   138   140   139   141
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C)      10     9     9    10    10    10    11    11    12    11    12    10    12
700-500 MB RH     73    74    74    71    69    64    59    61    54    59    56    59    54
GFS VTEX (KT)      8     8     8     8     8     6     5     4     4     4     3     3  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    51    48    47    39    37    20    15    20    14    28    18    22    14
200 MB DIV        53    47    57    55    15    16   -20    -2    -7   -17   -22   -10   -12
LAND (KM)        252   261   311   230   172   100    85     0    -2   107   243   270   169
LAT (DEG N)     13.5  14.2  14.9  15.6  16.2  17.1  17.7  17.8  17.8  17.5  17.3  17.2  17.3
LONG(DEG W)     67.7  68.9  70.1  71.1  72.1  73.8  75.0  76.3  77.6  79.0  80.4  82.1  83.9
STM SPEED (KT)    15    14    13    12    11     8     7     6     6     7     8     8     9
HEAT CONTENT      38    42    76    81    83    43     8    18    43    24    27    66    79

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15      CX,CY: -13/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  470  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  20.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  81.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  11.  18.  23.  28.  31.  34.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   3.   5.   6.   8.   9.   8.   8.   7.   7.   8.   9.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   2.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   6.  10.  14.  22.  29.  35.  42.  47.  50.  53.  56.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   7.  12.  16.  24.  30.  35.  40.  44.  47.  51.  54.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 08/25/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.5 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  45.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 120.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.0 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  64.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    45% is   3.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    33% is   3.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    26% is   6.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 08/25/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY 

[fci]

From EURO Florida, GFDL channel and GFS (nothing)...It will be a fun week full of "Texas be ready" to "Florida, not again"...
Doesn't football start this week?

Yes the Florida Gators play The Warriors of Hawaii
This Saturday Aug. 30th...12:30 pm E/ 7:30am H

Kudos on your the colors for the teams.

GO GATORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ronjon]

Wow, that 18Z GFDL run is scary. Just checked the 500 mb charts from GFS - weakness over central and eastern GOM at the end of that run. The path would likely take it anywhere from coastal MS to the west coast of FL next weekend.

[jaxfladude]

From EURO Florida, GFDL channel and GFS (nothing)...It will be a fun week full of "Texas be ready" to "Florida, not again"...
Doesn't football start this week?

Yes the Florida Gators play The Warriors of Hawaii
This Saturday Aug. 30th...12:30 pm E/ 7:30am H

Kudos on your the colors for the teams.

GO GATORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Before someone says stick to the discussion of the model runs for Invest 94L , this game may impacted directly by this invest/Gustav(sp?) come Saturday....
Roughly 90,000plus fans people!

[deltadog03]

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

Those still continue to be fairly high odds.....

[LaBreeze]

Pretty certain on that weakness? Just wondering - although I never turn my back on the GOM.

[Ivanhater]

Not a blocking high protecting the Gulfcoast according the the GFS when the GFDL has this coming through the channel ...weakness in the central and eastern gulf..

[Blown Away]

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

Those still continue to be fairly high odds.....

Is this one of those situations if RI occurs soon 94L would move more N and if 94L stays weak ito goes W?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Is that a high building in from the west though?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not a blocking high protecting the Gulfcoast according the the GFS when the GFDL has this coming through the channel ...weakness in the central and eastern gulf..

Is that a high building in from the west though?

[Ivanhater]

Is that a high building in from the west though?

Yes..by 156 builds in from the west..not going into Mexico with that high blocking it..that is if the GFS is right

[Brent]

[Bluefrog]

crap Brent ... you are scaring me

[LaBreeze]

How certain is it that a high will block the western GOM?