ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

How certain is it that a high will block the western GOM?

Well its medium range GFS, so it's subject to change...

[ROCK]

How certain is it that a high will block the western GOM?

like any model run who knows...I will be looking at the EURO for track once it gets a better handle on it.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is that a high building in from the west though?

Yes..by 156 builds in from the west..not going into Mexico with that high blocking it..that is if the GFS is right

Or Texas. And I have game tix and hotel reservations in Austin to watch Texas host Florida Atlantic. FAU is coming off a bowl season, so this isn't your typical season opener against a powder-puff.

So, that protective ridge is a good thing. I hope the FAU players won't be too distracted by what may be happening in the weather back home.

[Bluefrog]

ivan ... is that a real photo of you?!?!?! I smile everytime i see it.....

[Ivanhater]

ivan ... is that a real photo of you?!?!?! I smile everytime i see it.....

Lol yes, can't beat 99 cent margarita night!

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB cut a special Sunday video. He sees 95L, which he thinks is two waves merging, and 94L interacting, and both threatening the SE US, with the wave off Africa as a third threat down the road.

[Blown Away]

Is that a high building in from the west though?

Yes..by 156 builds in from the west..not going into Mexico with that high blocking it..that is if the GFS is right

Or Texas. And I have game tix and hotel reservations in Austin to watch Texas host Florida Atlantic. FAU is coming off a bowl season, so this isn't your typical season opener against a powder-puff.

So, that protective ridge is a good thing. I hope the FAU players won't be too distracted by what may be happening in the weather back home.

[img][/img]

Hey, I'm an Owl, hoot, hoot! FAU is not a powder puff, but if Texas loses to the Owls then you can say "Season Over For Texas". What's w/ the Nogaps this year it has been way out there?

[SouthFLTropics]

JB cut a special Sunday video. He sees 95L, which he thinks is two waves merging, and 94L interacting, and both threatening the SE US, with the wave off Africa as a third threat down the road.

Sounds kinda like the Wonder Twins..."Wonder Twin powers unite...Shape of a Hurricane" !!!

[Bluefrog]

well it cracks me up ... you look like you are about 18 ....

[SouthFLTropics]

well it cracks me up ... you look like you are about 18 ....

Maybe someone should check his ID!!!

On a serious note...sure seems like there is a big spread in the models. I wonder what JB is basing his forecasts off of with the "merge" with 95L and a threat to the SE Conus...

SFT

[Bluefrog]

JB cut a special Sunday video. He sees 95L, which he thinks is two waves merging, and 94L interacting, and both threatening the SE US, with the wave off Africa as a third threat down the road.

Sounds kinda like the Wonder Twins..."Wonder Twin powers unite...Shape of a Hurricane" !!!

wonder twins power activate .... rofl

[Blown Away]

JB cut a special Sunday video. He sees 95L, which he thinks is two waves merging, and 94L interacting, and both threatening the SE US, with the wave off Africa as a third threat down the road.

Sounds kinda like the Wonder Twins..."Wonder Twin powers unite...Shape of a Hurricane" !!!

wonder twins power activate .... rofl

You are showing your age knowing that detail!
I know, I know back to 94L.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Is that a high building in from the west though?

Yes..by 156 builds in from the west..not going into Mexico with that high blocking it..that is if the GFS is right

So in this case if the GFDL is correct with a hurricane in the channel or far southern gulf and a ridge is building in the west would this supposed storm turn quickly towards the northeast or steering currents collapse like Fay and just slowly drifts towards the north until the ridge is over it then turns it back towards the west?

[ROCK]

Is that a high building in from the west though?

Yes..by 156 builds in from the west..not going into Mexico with that high blocking it..that is if the GFS is right

So in this case if the GFDL is correct with a hurricane in the channel or far southern gulf and a ridge is building in the west would this supposed storm turn quickly towards the northeast or steering currents collapse like Fay and just slowly drifts towards the north until the ridge is over it then turns it back towards the west?

still to early to tell....

[Annie Oakley]

ivan ... is that a real photo of you?!?!?! I smile everytime i see it.....

Lol yes, can't beat 99 cent margarita night!

You don't look old enough to drink! But the way you handled non-stop (it seemed) postings on Fay and kept up with it all in a professional manner then I believe you are old enough to do anything... Great job-I guess the margaritas keep you in top physical form lol?

[Duddy]

160 MPH Hurricane, looks like another interesting few days ahead.

[stormie]

Okay...between Ivan's pic and wonder twin 'cane, I think we're all getting a little punchy...but, it's only August 24th & we have a lot more of the season to go...!! ...put the model run down and back away slowly...

LOL!!

[MGC]

That GFDL run takes 94L over Jamaica and hardly weakens it, so I doubt the 932mb in the SGOM will verify, it better not!. Also, not to bash JB but didn't he say Fay would be a Carolina storm?....MGC

[ROCK]

That GFDL run takes 94L over Jamaica and hardly weakens it, so I doubt the 932mb in the SGOM will verify, it better not!. Also, not to bash JB but didn't he say Fay would be a Carolina storm?....MGC

Ivan danced around it.....but I dont think Jam would do much to a system with a well established core...IMO...

[SouthFLTropics]

That GFDL run takes 94L over Jamaica and hardly weakens it, so I doubt the 932mb in the SGOM will verify, it better not!. Also, not to bash JB but didn't he say Fay would be a Carolina storm?....MGC

Ivan danced around it.....but I dont think Jam would do much to a system with a well established core...IMO...

I think it would have to depend on the forward speed of the system. If a storm was to spend a fair amount of time over Jamaica it could weaken quite a bit. There are some fairly high peaks in Jamaica if I remember right.

SFT