ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[TSmith274]

That GFDL run just sucks. Sorry, but this one gives me a sinking feeling. Someone is going to get nailed if some of these intensity forecasts verify. I'll hold off making predictions until we have something concrete to work with, but this thing looks to be organizing in classic form to me.

[Tampa_God]

I think I predicted Gustav to be a FL storm and its certainly looking I might be right. Gulf states though, start preparing for anything.

[cycloneye]

[TSmith274]

Time for Fay to get the heck outa here to allow for some ridging... GET OUTA HERE FAY!!

[SouthFLTropics]

Well everyone...I think I will sleep while I can...Knowing my S2K addiction I have a feeling that I'm in for another busy, sleepless week ahead. Maybe I should go to S2K rehab...NAH, I'll wait till after the season and then go. Give me another shot... Goodnight everyone.

SFT

[GeneratorPower]

That GFDL run just sucks. Sorry, but this one gives me a sinking feeling. Someone is going to get nailed if some of these intensity forecasts verify. I'll hold off making predictions until we have something concrete to work with, but this thing looks to be organizing in classic form to me.

Unfortunately, that sinking feeling is probably quite literal as N.O. is continuing to actually sink further below sea level. There was a news story out on substandard levy construction yesterday, and it looked like a pretty no-nonsense article rather than a shock-piece.

It is too early to talk about final landfal locations. However, on a side note, New Orleans cannot sustain another major hurricane that causes flooding. That will truly be the end of just about everything for N.O.

[RL3AO]

From Isla Margarita, Venezula

Code: Select all

SVMG (METAR)
time    slp         t / td          dir / spd / gst/pcp   presWx & skyCover
(UTC)  (mb)          (F)                    (mph)  (in.)
0300 1010.0(S) 75.2(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/007(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010 BKN/080
0200 1010.0(S) 77.0(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/007(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010 BKN/080
0100 1010.0(S) 77.0(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/012(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010 BKN/080
0000 1010.0(S) 75.2(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/013(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010
2300 1010.0(S) 73.4(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/009(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010 OVC/080


Consistant WSW winds.

[ConvergenceZone]

The scary part about this is, if this storm gets going faster than anticipated(and it looks like it might), it's going to take much more shear to influence it...Of course If it's just a weak tropical storm, shear will be a big deal, but the shear doesn't support to appear for a couple of days from what I'm understanding, and that's plenty of time for this to really take off...

I'm totally lost though as to the direction of this thing...I don't want to even spectulate at this time... One minute I"m thinking North and then towards the east coast, then then I'm thinking the Gulf, and then I start leaning the direction Derek was saying which was Mexico. It's just really tough. I guess that's why the models are all over the place, because they don't even know...

[Praxus]

Just keeps ramping up the convection!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

From Isla Margarita, Venezula

Code: Select all

SVMG (METAR)
time    slp         t / td          dir / spd / gst/pcp   presWx & skyCover
(UTC)  (mb)          (F)                    (mph)  (in.)
0300 1010.0(S) 75.2(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/007(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010 BKN/080
0200 1010.0(S) 77.0(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/007(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010 BKN/080
0100 1010.0(S) 77.0(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/012(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010 BKN/080
0000 1010.0(S) 75.2(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/013(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010
2300 1010.0(S) 73.4(S)/73.40(S) 250°(S)/009(S)/---/0.00"  SCT/010 OVC/080


Consistant WSW winds.

Yeah that shows a LLC maybe forming.

[ConvergenceZone]

I try not to get too excited about convection, because how many times have seen seen a lot of intense convection, only to wake up the next morning and say, "what happened? where did it go?"..... soooo, I don't want to put myself through that again, lol...

[hurricanetrack]

Get used to the name Gustav- might be around the history books for some time to come. But then again, this is just my opinion based on one run of the GFDL. We obviously need a lot more time and data before something like that would verify. So far though, this wave is looking rather impressive in a part of the Basin where TCHP is high and getting higher along its path. Busy week ahead it seems.

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Starting to see some low level convergence....

[fasterdisaster]

Yeesh the NHC is tepid about declaring storms this year, it's going to have an eye by the time recon gets there!


...KIDDING.

[green eyed girl]

Time for Fay to get the heck outa here to allow for some ridging... GET OUTA HERE FAY!!

What do you think will be the result if Fay doesn't leave soon enough to allow for the ridging?

[Sanibel]

No doubting the black IR.

Shift WNW is happening now.

Humid and hurricane feel here. Not like the dry breezy conditions before Fay.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Time for Fay to get the heck outa here to allow for some ridging... GET OUTA HERE FAY!!

What do you think will be the result if Fay doesn't leave soon enough to allow for the ridging?

There could be a weakness in the ridge which would allow this system if it develops to move more north and could reach the GoM impacting somewhere along the Gulf coast. But its far to early to try and say where it will end up if it develops.

[blp]

You can clearly see what appears to be a developing LLC on San Juan Radar. Hard to discern the movement but it appears like 290 or 295.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


EDIT: Not so sure I was seeing this correctly. I think whatever is developing seems to be further south out of range.

[Sanibel]

The center is best seen on Shortwave IR. Pulling more WNW now. I can't believe some are downplaying this in the models thread. If it gets into the Gulf it will be trouble.

[RL3AO]

You can clearly see what appears to be a developing LLC on San Juan Radar. Hard to discern the movement but it appears like 290 or 295.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


EDIT: Not so sure I was seeing this correctly. I think whatever is developing seems to be further south out of range.

You can't see an LLC from radar unless its within 25 miles or so of the radar.