ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[lamsalfl]

I forgot I had a username and password from last year or the year before. I've been lurking for the longest time thinking that I was just a lurker in the past! Thought I'd join, but I saw my e-mail was already used so I figured out my old name. haha.

[lamsalfl]

Oh yeah, where can I find that spaghetti map that shows about 10 or 15 models? I see it frequently posted.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on data out of hugo Chavez's country we now have a west wind. That normally shows that a LLC is developing or has developed. Now I expect that it is broad currently, and maybe not defined enough yet. But with this convection and shape it is just a matter of time.

[RL3AO]

Oh yeah, where can I find that spaghetti map that shows about 10 or 15 models? I see it frequently posted.

This one?

[Sanibel]

We'll see a lot more people interested in this tomorrow morning when I sign back on. - Good night.

Seeing more high end potential now from behavior. More WNW right now.

[lamsalfl]

Yes that's the map! Thanks.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED...AND REPORTS
FROM A NOAA BUOY INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Safe to say its at red now.

[lamsalfl]

This is 2008. What's a tropical depression?

[rockyman]

Code Red:

[bahamaswx]

Oh yeah, where can I find that spaghetti map that shows about 10 or 15 models? I see it frequently posted.

This one?

It's worth noting when you look at this that the left outliers are the less significant (read: garbage) models.

[lamsalfl]

Are we ever going to get a new frame? How much longer of the eclipse??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Stratosphere747]

Are we ever going to get a new frame? How much longer of the eclipse??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

GOES has already updated. Convection building to the N. Southern area is out of frame.

[RL3AO]

The eclipse is over. Convection has weakened a touch near center with a new burst on the NW side.

[Clipper96]

The center is best seen on Shortwave IR. Pulling more WNW now. I can't believe some are downplaying this in the models thread. If it gets into the Gulf it will be trouble.

"Trouble" is a euphemism for cat-5. This is the time of year for those, and this is their favorite playground.

Since 2004, there have been two cat-4s and five cat-5s tracking through the Caribbean. The 2008 season's storms so far have shared the western Atlantic-oriented proclivity displayed in 2004, 2005 and 2007 (the years in which those eight storms occurred); given the other estimates for an active season, it is not unreasonable to assume there will be at least two Caribbean storms, at least one of them will be a cat-5, and at least one of them will strike the US up through the Gulf.

[KWT]

Well motion now looks to be a good deal more northerly then before, seems like every system wants to limit itself by going over either Hispaniola or Cuba this season

It does look good but with its elongated convection I'm not totally convinced theres a strong defined low level circulation yet.

[Clipper96]

It does look good but with its elongated convection I'm not totally convinced theres a strong defined low level circulation yet.

Aruba radar depicts it pretty well:

http://www.weather.an/product_images/hi ... color.html

[Chacor]

WONT41 KNHC 250835
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM THE
NETHERLAND ANTILLES INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[SouthFLTropics]

Well I got up from my slumber just in time to see this...Here we go!!!

SFT

[Cyclenall]

The NHC usually doesn't issue STDS in the middle of the night at 4:35 am. May just as well start calling this a TD at 5 am.

[Thunder44]

The NHC usually doesn't issue STDS in the middle of the night at 4:35 am. May just as well start calling this a TD at 5 am.

I don't know if a STDS was necessary at this time, after the bullish wording they had already in the last TWO. Although they did say that TWO, that it "may be" becoming better organzied, while the STDS was says that it actually is. Perhaps it's also a signal that they may not wait for the flight this afternoon, to upgrade it.