ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I am a bit concerned for South Florida about SE Bahamas and Eastern Cuba talk in the TWO:

and notice NHC expects a NW movement to comment at some point soon.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1149.shtml

[ROCK]

Ok, giving apperance I am guessing somewhere between 999-1001mb low and high end.......if that is the case here is the current steering:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html


Jamaica makes sense...


edit: for spelling...my typing sucks.

[chris_fit]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 250841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
441 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...ATLC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES BUT SOME DRIER AIR IS
INTRUDING FROM THE SW IN THE MID LEVELS. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND SPARKING SOME CONVECTION. ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO START RATHER EARLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THEN PUSH
INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE OVER NORTH
INTERIOR SECTIONS SHOULD PROVIDE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE DAY.
MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM (-6C) SO THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL IS VERY LOW. BUT THREAT IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY
FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS 40-45 MPH. STORM MOTION WILL BE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTH SECTIONS...SO SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK TO THE COAST IN VOLUSIA COUNTY
LATE...AND POSSIBLY BREVARD. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES IN LAKE...VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.
BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH...WITH LOCALIZED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TUE-WED...AS THE REMNANTS OF FAY HEAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
ALIGN ITSELF EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. PWAT VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DECLINE TO BETWEEN 1.75"-2.00" OVER ECFL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND EXPECT AN
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SO IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF ANY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAKE IT
BACK TO THE EAST COAST. DO EXPECT SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARIES COLLIDE LATE IN
THE DAY. WILL KEEP POP COVERAGES 30%-40%. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THU-SUN...RIDGING BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE
WASHING OUT ON FRI...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN A
GENERAL TROUGH-LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CELLS WILL BE FOUND EAST AND WEST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT INWARD MOVING
SEA BREEZES EACH DAY WITH LIGHT FLOW CONTINUING IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 2" DURING THIS PERIOD AND
PCPN CHANCES NEAR NORMAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOCUSED INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON.



So basically per this discussion out of Melbourne, it gives this thing a path right up FL, AGAIN. High pressure ot the east, High pressure to the west, FL in the weakness.

[x-y-no]

question, some of you guys are posting that this "may" be a Florida landfall, but 1/2 the models take it to Mexico and another 1/2 takes it near FL.

So why do you think this is a FL landfall, I can't tell all I see is a mess looking at these weather pattern?

We're getting up into the area where the BAM models can't handle things because mid-latitude dynamics interacts with the storm - so at this point one should disregard them.

There's still a fair spread in the dynamic models, but Florida or the eastern Gulf look like the candidate areas, with some small chance of a close miss of Florida to the east.

[HURAKAN]

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 94L: deja vu? Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:46 AM EDT on August 25, 2008

Heavy thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave (94L) near 15N, 70W, in the central Caribbean south of the Dominican Republic, have grown more concentrated over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) did now show a closed surface circulation, but did show sustained winds of 52 mph north of the center. Visible satellite loops show evidence of rotation in the clouds at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no surface circulation as yet. The area covered by the heaviest thunderstorms is relatively modest. The storm has moistened its environment considerably, and dry air should no longer be a problem for 94L. Wind shear has fallen to a very low 2 knots over 94L. NHC is giving this system a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, and has scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight to investigate the storm this afternoon.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:33 am EDT Monday August 25, 2008. The red "L" denotes the center of disturbance 94L, which has no closed circulation. The wind barbs show there are south winds to the east of the center and winds from the east to the north of the center, but there are no winds from the west to the south of the center, which one would have to have in order for there to be a closed surface circulation. Note the purple wind barb just north of the center, with four long tines and one short tine, indicating that we had winds of 45 knots (52 mph) there. Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

The deja vu forecast for 94L
The models have had a tough time properly handling 94L, due to the fact they have been getting this system entangled with the other disturbance (95L) a few hundred miles to the northeast of Puerto Rico. The latest (2 am EDT Monday) GFDL forecast appears believable--and presents a strong case of deja vu. It's an almost exact repeat of Fay's track. The GFDL predicts 94L will continue to move northwest and hit the Haiti/Dominican Republic region on Tuesday, then get turned to the west by a strengthening ridge of high pressure. The storm will cross over to eastern Cuba on Wednesday, then travel along the length of Cuba through Friday night. On Saturday, the GFDL has 94L popping off the coast of Cuba at the same spot Fay did, then intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane that moves over Key West towards a landfall in Southwest Florida. While it is unlikely that the exact details of this deja vu forecast will come true, it does give one a general idea of the land areas 94L is likely to affect. The Dominican Republic and Haiti can expect 4-8 inches of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday from 94L, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches. These rains will cause flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. Wednesday through Friday, 94L is likely to bring heavy rains to Cuba, Jamaica, the northern Cayman Islands, and the southeast Bahamas. There are some models calling for 94L to track through the Bahamas and then northeast out to sea, so it may end up that the Bahamas will end up taking the brunt of this storm. However, I don't think this is likely, and a more westerly track into the Gulf of Mexico will occur.

Sea surface temperatures and total oceanic heat content in the Central Caribbean are very high, and 94L is in a environment very favorable for intensification. Wind shear is predicted to remain very low to moderate, 0-15 knots, for the next five days. An upper level high pressure system is currently sitting over central Cuba, and if 94L can position itself under this high, it will provide very favorable upper-level outflow conditions for the storm later this week. The main restriction on 94L's development will, like for Fay, be interaction with land. The islands of Hispaniola and Cuba will provide formidable obstacles to intensification.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Seems like a Fay repeat almost but I think future Gustav will be stronger mainly because it will probably miss the big mountains over Hispaniola.

[Blown Away]

Any system that moves through the Windward passage always gets my attention in SFL.

[x-y-no]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Seems like a Fay repeat almost but I think future Gustav will be stronger mainly because it will probably miss the big mountains over Hispaniola.

Absent heavy land interaction, that seems likely.

[Sanibel]

Catch up guys. Throw out all low intensity and "another Fay" suggestions with that eye. More likely now to verify intensity. Whole other deal in this Caribbean ballpark headstart.

Gustav is a good old family name - it was my great-great-grandfather's name, my grandfather's name and it's my father's middle name.

I suspected that but kept it to myself. lol

[HURAKAN]

dry spot, dry spot, dry spot

[poof121]

I'm betting TS warnings for Jamaica at 11...

[Sanibel]

Right to hurricane.

[Meso]

Already looking like a beautiful storm... My guess would be that, that is an eye. It also appears to be wrapping around it, compared to the shots about an hour ago...Convection also looks fairly decent on all sides of the 'hole'.

[Blown Away]

Hurakan, exactly what I was "thinking", lol. Where is the cone going? First run, I say the track goes over Cuba and just S of the Keys into the E GOM as a cane. SFL in 5 day cone.

[poof121]

New Orleans NWS mentions this...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
454 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-251800-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
454 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. LOCAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

WIND...
WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AND EXPOSED AREAS. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE LONG DURATIONS TODAY BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR AS REMNANT ENERGY FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY
DISPERSES NEAR BANDS OF SHOWERS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TIDAL LAKES FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 KNOTS GUSTS
35 KNOTS TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
SHOULD ONSET TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH MAY SETTLE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE...MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

METEOROLOGISTS ARE CLOSELY MONITORING A LARGE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CIRCULATION INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
THE LOWER CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM MAY BE
DEVELOPING AND A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT ITS
FORWARD SPEED AND PROGRESSION COULD POSSIBLY BRING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO
NOTIFY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SLIDELL IF FLOODING IS
NOTED IN YOUR AREA OR JURISDICTION.

$$

24

[Cryomaniac]

Right to hurricane.

In my completely unprofessional opinion, I highly doubt it.

[Stormcenter]

Well I just hope this gets out of the way before the Labor Day weekend.

[gtsmith]

eye...dry spot...eye...dry spot...but, isn't an eye a dry spot too? just thinking...

[Stormcenter]

Right to hurricane.

In my completely unprofessional opinion, I highly doubt it.

I second and third that unprofessional opinion.

[ROCK]

dry spot, dry spot, dry spot

yeah, where is MATT? give me an eye roll.. ...that is an eye....