ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Still don't think that is an eye...

[Cryomaniac]

Right to hurricane.

LOL, care to back that up?

Waiting for recon would be the sensible thing to do.

[micktooth]

Eye or drier air wrapping in? You decide.

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/1145 UTC 15.1N 69.6W T2.5/2.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[ROCK]

dry spot, dry spot, dry spot

yeah, where is MATT? give me an eye roll.. ...that is an eye....

If this were a hurrricane already then it would have to be some sort of record and a big drop pass by the NHC....neither is likely.

SC.....never said it was a hurricane...just said it looked like an eye....based on the MV pass.

[Sanibel]

LOL, care to back that up?

I have to remember that people in here stay with the professional definition of storm status. So it will probably go through the official TS status before hurricane. But remember all the lectures about "only hurricanes have eyes" in here. You can't win. However the eye is telling you hurricane soon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This should be an interesting recon mission this afternoon. Bad feeling for Florida about this one, especially after all the rain from Fay...

[HURAKAN]

Loop:

[Chacor]

Based on that 1345z water vapour image above I don't think you can quite call it an eye. Any good microwave passes?

[HURAKAN]

Two hours old:

[lrak]

WOW, didn't see this happening so soon.

[gatorcane]

This should be an interesting recon mission this afternoon. Bad feeling for Florida about this one, especially after all the rain from Fay...

I would think South Florida will be in the cone at 11AM EST.....given the current steering patterns.

Media will latch on quick if this verifies.

[Cryomaniac]

I have to remember that people in here stay with the professional definition of storm status. So it will probably go through the official TS status before hurricane. But remember all the lectures about "only hurricanes have eyes" in here. Your can't win. However the eye is telling you hurricane soon.

For some reason, this reminds me of the whole "it's not a TC unless the NHC say it is" discussion from 2006...

[Sanibel]

Any good microwave passes?

A few pages back with an obvious, well-defined eye.

[Kludge]

JB says he believes it's already sub 1000mb and 50 kt

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any good microwave passes?

A few pages back with an obvious, well-defined eye.

I believe the proper term, as used by NHC, when Fay was approaching Okeechobee, was "eye like feature".

It has a well defined 'eye like feature' surrounded by a ring of deep storms.

[micktooth]

I can't help but think of that old classic song:
"You dropped a bomb on me, baby, you dropped a bomb on me..."

[Sanibel]

At this juncture I think this is calling for figuring out if this right tendency will continue and go east of Florida?

[Ed Mahmoud]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE.

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.

The correct term is "eye feature".

[Comanche]

JB says he believes it's already sub 1000mb and 50 kt

And headed for New York Harbor??