ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think it may go through the Mona passage and enter the SE Bahamas....probably will go East of Jamaica. I am leaning more toward the Euro model with this one.

I think you meant windward passage.

Thanks Luis, yes I meant windward passage.

[ColdFusion]

WHAT???

Care to elaborate? HA!

[SkeetoBite]

wow, so much for rapid intensification, they are keeping this a tropical storm over the next few days. I guess they are seeing something we aren't.....

Until they get recon AND good initialization of the models, they will remain conservative. Plenty of time to ramp forecasts up.

A sensible post-

[Sanibel]

Track is at least 300 maybe 310.

[gatorcane]

Track is at least 300 maybe 310.

Yeah I truly see the turn to the NW happening as I type this....we shall see though

[storm4u]

i cant believe how good this is starting to look and it looks like you may be right!

well if you look at the latest frame, it appears to have "wobbled" more NW so that NW movement may be finally commencing.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[xironman]

Odd they did not mention intensity uncertainty in the forecast as much as track. Maybe it is just a given.

[perk]

well if you look at the latest frame, it appears to have "wobbled" more NW so that NW movement may be finally commencing.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I still don't think that was a NW wobble, just took a look at the floater on the NHC website and it appears that the speculative eye grew larger.

[Fego]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think it may go through the Mona passage and enter the SE Bahamas....probably will go East of Jamaica. I am leaning more toward the Euro model with this one.

I think you meant windward passage.

I thought the same... but is already corrected

[Derek Ortt]

wow, so much for rapid intensification, they are keeping this a tropical storm over the next few days. I guess they are seeing something we aren't.....

yeah, land

[Chacor]

TD 7 forecasting contest: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102744

[Kludge]

they say its moving NW?

Interesting.

Interesting indeed, because if that dark spot some speculate to be an eye is the center it appear to be moving slightly north of due west.

Yeah, if this is going to cross Haiti it'd better hit the brakes quick and do a hard right turn.

[gatorcane]

wow, so much for rapid intensification, they are keeping this a tropical storm over the next few days. I guess they are seeing something we aren't.....

yeah, land

But if it manages to go through the Windward passage it will pass relatively unscathed.

[Praxus]

Yep, intensity will depend a lot on land interaction. Quite the wild card right now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

A SECOND SCENARIO IS
FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA...AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
BAM TRACKS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL.

That is what I am going with as the trough is not digging any further south and the remnants of Fay are already lifting out to the northeast and high pressure is forecast to build back westward as this happens. Also what concerns me in the long term is the strong front that was forecast to sweep through the gulf states looks to be a lot weaker and have it stalling north of the states. Long way off but could have major implications.

[Sanibel]

Slightly better defined but still a little hazy:

[gatorcane]

movement is NW now and it is gaining lattitude, definitely feeling a weakness north of it.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Southern Florida is in the cone yet again....

Yeah, the question is will SFL need shutters this time?

And row boats? There's standing water everywhere.

~Beth~

[gatorcane]

I'm pretty surprised this is not Gustav.....I would have upgraded it to Gustav with that satellite presentation.

[Ivanhater]

I sure dont like Derek's track