ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Clipper96]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

I agree with the track closely. But only Gilbert, Allen, Camille had 160 knots. I think it is more possible that this gets to around 125-130 knots.

[bob rulz]

Yeah, that is definitely above tropical depression intensity. If not, that's the best tropical depression I've ever seen. Interesting to see what recon will find.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don't forget clipper high pressure is also forecast to build in behind the weakness that "fay" left as she is already lifting out to the northeast. Which therefore i think will even give more support to your track

[Stormcenter]

wow, so much for rapid intensification, they are keeping this a tropical storm over the next few days. I guess they are seeing something we aren't.....

yeah, land

[DESTRUCTION5]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

Jesus Clipper...Why dont we just take Katrina out of retirement and call this one Katrino

[gatorcane]

I think it becomes Hurricane Gustav as soon as recon gets there. I think there has to be some hurricane force winds near the "eye"

[boca]

So according to the models Depression 7 might miss S Florida to the SW and we might dodge a bullet.

[Brent]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

Ummmmm...

Anyway, this looks like Gustav.

[gtsmith]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think it may go through the windward passage and enter the SE Bahamas....probably will go East of Jamaica. I am leaning more toward the Euro model with this one. I think it will tap into the deeper layer steering which brings the depression through a weakness north of it.

If it enters the SE of the Bahamas...it already is East of Jamaica...no?

[gatorcane]

So according to the models Depression 7 might miss S Florida to the SW and we might dodge a bullet.

Not so fast Boca, some models take it east of Florida (like the Euro)...South Florida is well within the cone on this one, unfortunately.

[Category 5]

I think it becomes Hurricane Gustav as soon as recon gets there. I think there has to be some hurricane force winds near the "eye"

And what makes you think this?

[SkeetoBite]

I sure dont like Derek's track

Derek's track through 8am on 8/30/08 appears very similar (track only - not intensity) to Dennis 2005

[Stormcenter]

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

I agree with the track closely. But only Gilbert, Allen, Camille had 160 knots. I think it is more possible that this gets to around 125-130 knots.

Correct me if I'm wrong but are you basically thinking TD7 will miss land? I don't think that's
likely as much as I don't think this will be a 160kt hurricane at 24N/83W on Thursday.

[Category 5]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

You have nothing to support such hype.

[mutley]

I think it becomes Hurricane Gustav as soon as recon gets there. I think there has to be some hurricane force winds near the "eye"

What is it with storms this year, and the odd "eye features"?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I do think the BAMS and the models that take it more WNW are missing the fact this depression is rapidly intensifying and tapping into the deeper steering currents --- so I do think a more NW or even at times NNW movement will happen today......

again I think a path east of Jamaica and maybe through the Windward passage or a bit more right. I would not rule out a NW to NNW movement into the Bahamas and a bend West towards Southern FL at this point. Ridging is going to build in once Fay exits but its hard to say when it will start affecting the depression.

[Stormcenter]

It didn't take long for the gloom and doom forecasts to showing up from many on this board. I'm curious to see what the GFS has to say.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

I agree with the track closely. But only Gilbert, Allen, Camille had 160 knots. I think it is more possible that this gets to around 125-130 knots.

Correct me if I'm wrong but are you basically thinking TD7 will miss land? I don't think that's
likely as much as I don't think this will be a 160kt hurricane at 24N/83W on Thursday.

We will have to see how fast it can turn back to the west or west-northwest. If it does what the nhc is forecasting of coarse it will likely not be more then a cat1. But if it follows a more leftward track then it is possible. If it takes the more west track then the western Caribbean has the TCHP to do so.

[bob rulz]

What time is recon supposed to get there?