ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mattpetre]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

You have nothing to support such hype.

I guess the GFDL yesterday had nothing to support such hype either. He put his disclaimer on the forecast and said it was rather bullish, I wish the models had as good manners as he had in his post

[Just Joshing You]

Even if recon supports a Hurricane, what is the betting that they give some excuse as to why they kept it at a 60 KT storm instead? Not saying NHC is bad, but they can't look like they dropped the ball that bad... if it becomes a major and hits land and causes major damage, well, what is headlines going to say? That NHC is incompetent and they need a new governing body for TC's.

[Stormcenter]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've done very well calling this so far; let's see if I can keep it up.

Unofficial very bullish forecast: After a brief period of slow NW movement, faster WNW movement will resume as the east-coast trough continues lifting away.

11am Monday Initial: 50kts
11pm Monday 65kt: 17N/72W
11am Tuesday 110kt: 18N/76W ...poised to hit Jamaica
11pm Tuesday 100kt: 19N/78W ...coming off Jamaica
11am Wednesday 125kt: 21N/81W ...Cayman Islands
11pm Wednesday 145kt: 22N/82W ...crossing western Cuba into Gulf
11am Thursday 160kt: 24N/83W ...NNW heading until landfall.

You have nothing to support such hype.

Like I said in another post " A gloom and doom" forecast.
I think I read a few of those in the Fay thread.

[tolakram]

Why do people insist on making forecasts when they have no sound data or reasoning? I for one would prefer we stick to observations and keep the unsubstantiated hype out of here.

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I do think the BAMS and the models that take it more WNW are missing the fact this depression is rapidly intensifying and tapping into the deeper steering currents --- so I do think a more NW or even at times NNW movement will happen today......

again I think a path east of Jamaica and maybe through the Windward passage or a bit more right. I would not rule out a NW to NNW movement into the Bahamas and a bend West towards Southern FL at this point.

The movement is NW today and the trough is supposed to lift out causing a WNW or west motion which would put Gustav south or SW of S Florida.

[CourierPR]

Parochial prognostications aside, I think the eventual track will be influenced by intensity and land interaction.

[Cryomaniac]

Even if recon supports a Hurricane, what is the betting that they give some excuse as to why they kept it at a 60 KT storm instead?.

What possible excuse could they give? If the obs support a hurricane it will be called a hurricane. I personally doubt the obs will support a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets not quote personal forecasts that dont have sound reasoning of data to back their forecast.Personal forecasts will have a separated thread.

[Chacor]

Ok folks,lets not quote personal forecasts that dont have sound reasoning of data to back their forecast.Personal forecadts will have a separated thread.

<Plug mode> Alternatively, there's always the forecasting contest on TD7! </plug mode>

[Cryomaniac]

Ok folks,lets not quote personal forecasts that dont have sound reasoning of data to back their forecast.Personal forecasts will have a separated thread.

So is this site policy now? That we don't make personal forecasts in the main thread?

[micktooth]

Although we might not agree with a poster's forecast or others feel like they need to rip into some posters, remember this is a board open for discussions of all types. From S2K Tropical Forum:

"Talkin' Tropics
This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path. All amateur forecasts will require a STORM2K disclaimer ( Disclaimer can be found at the top of the forum ) at the top for their forecast."

[Meso]

In regards to the reason for official products initially being conservative.

It is better to be conservative in the beginning than spark panic and start a media frenzy over something that may not even exist. 'Gustav' has a while before it's first landfall, enough for recon to go check it out and give back accurate data where-after the NHC can change their forecast accordingly. Can you image all the buzz if they shouted 'CAT 5!!!'... And honestly their 60kt is not far off the SHIPS 74 odd knots which it has forecast. Nothing is showing rapid development yet, and until it has support. It shouldn't be assumed. Granted that the forecast intensity is likely to go up, within the next odd advisory or two. But one never starts the opening advisory with unfounded super intensity, especially when there is a bit of time

[perk]

So according to the models Depression 7 might miss S Florida to the SW and we might dodge a bullet.

Boca i would'nt put much stock in that initial track. I'm gonna wait till after recon.That track may change.

[Brent]

What time is recon supposed to get there?

Around 2pm ET.

[Blown Away]

So according to the models Depression 7 might miss S Florida to the SW and we might dodge a bullet.

With the persistent SW flow we have had this year in SFL, I'm thinking a Fay like track or just E of SFL.

[mattpetre]

People get so uptight on this board, what we say, predict or reason will not have any effect on the overall outcome of this storm. I do believe there is sound data and reasoning to support claims for a more westward version of this storm than the current NHC cone predicts. The steering currents at all levels are a bit more westward than this predicted path, the observed intensification today would make one believe this will follow the deeper steering currents (which are more westward than the shallow and also don't show a weakness in the ridge quite as much.) There is data to support this track (that's why the BAM models are leaning that way, although they don't see some of the mid latitude stuff involved.) Like I said before, nobody gets mad at the gloom and doom forecast from the GFDL yesterday... we must take all things with a grain of salt, but can't we enjoy learning and debating along the way? I have no idea where TD7 is headed right now, but I am pretty certain that the path across Haiti is by no means an "in the bag" forecast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I do think the BAMS and the models that take it more WNW are missing the fact this depression is rapidly intensifying and tapping into the deeper steering currents --- so I do think a more NW or even at times NNW movement will happen today......

again I think a path east of Jamaica and maybe through the Windward passage or a bit more right. I would not rule out a NW to NNW movement into the Bahamas and a bend West towards Southern FL at this point.

The movement is NW today and the trough is supposed to lift out causing a WNW or west motion which would put Gustav south or SW of S Florida.

Also the remnants of fay are already pulling off to the northeast and high pressure is forecast to start building back in tomorrow through wednesday

[Stephanie]

You may disagree with the forecast, but you may not bash the forecaster. This site has always been here for LEARNING PURPOSES, that will include forecasting.

If you do not like a forecast, if it isn't up to snuff with your "sound reasoning", then just say so, why and move on.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't know if it is just a wobble or not, but the clear area at the center of circulation does seem to have wobbled more North than West.


I think this could shoot the gap between Hispaniola and Cuba, and be a big deal in the Bahamas.


Not at all sure of that, and even less sure JB gets his Florida or SE US storm, but it seems very possible.

Since tropical depressions have eye features or eye like features, and not eyes, I will say, deeper convection is now wrapping around the Western side of the eye like feature.

[bob rulz]

What time is recon supposed to get there?

Around 2pm ET.

Even without recon this should be upgraded to a tropical storm at 2. It's hard to ignore what is seen.