ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Meso]

06z run wouldn't be very nice for Florida with their already saturated soil from Fay (The 06z run is actually really similar to Fay's path; uncanny) though undoubtably if that run were to materialize it wouldn't stick around for nearly as long as Fay

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080825 1200 080826 0000 080826 1200 080827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 69.6W 16.5N 71.6W 17.6N 73.3W 18.4N 74.4W
BAMD 15.1N 69.6W 16.4N 71.4W 17.0N 73.0W 17.4N 74.6W
BAMM 15.1N 69.6W 16.5N 71.5W 17.5N 73.2W 18.1N 74.5W
LBAR 15.1N 69.6W 16.7N 71.5W 18.0N 73.3W 18.8N 74.7W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080827 1200 080828 1200 080829 1200 080830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 75.8W 18.5N 78.5W 18.4N 81.4W 18.8N 84.8W
BAMD 17.3N 76.2W 16.6N 79.6W 16.0N 83.1W 16.2N 87.1W
BAMM 18.3N 75.8W 17.9N 78.8W 17.6N 82.2W 17.9N 86.1W
LBAR 19.2N 75.9W 18.9N 78.7W 18.6N 82.3W 18.5N 86.6W
SHIP 58KTS 67KTS 72KTS 76KTS
DSHP 57KTS 65KTS 69KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 67.4W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 64.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[gtalum]

Not a lot of model agreement, I see.

[sponger]

GFDL looks like a replay of Fay. We won't need rain here for awhile.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 251353
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1353 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072008) 20080825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080825 1200 080826 0000 080826 1200 080827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 69.6W 16.5N 71.6W 17.6N 73.3W 18.4N 74.4W
BAMD 15.1N 69.6W 16.4N 71.4W 17.0N 73.0W 17.4N 74.6W
BAMM 15.1N 69.6W 16.5N 71.5W 17.5N 73.2W 18.1N 74.5W
LBAR 15.1N 69.6W 16.7N 71.5W 18.0N 73.3W 18.8N 74.7W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080827 1200 080828 1200 080829 1200 080830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 75.8W 18.5N 78.5W 18.4N 81.4W 18.8N 84.8W
BAMD 17.3N 76.2W 16.6N 79.6W 16.0N 83.1W 16.2N 87.1W
BAMM 18.3N 75.8W 17.9N 78.8W 17.6N 82.2W 17.9N 86.1W
LBAR 19.2N 75.9W 18.9N 78.7W 18.6N 82.3W 18.5N 86.6W
SHIP 57KTS 65KTS 70KTS 74KTS
DSHP 56KTS 63KTS 67KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 67.4W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 64.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Meso]

Still initializing at 30kt... Quickscat has proved it's already stronger than that... So the ships forecast is probably a bit lower than what it will likely be when it's initialized with stronger winds

[frederic79]

I have a question. With Fay forecast to move off to the NE out of MS/AL later today (looks like it's already happening), would this leave a weakness in the ridging over the central gulf?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Could someone run nthie 12z GFS...I would but at work...Want to see if it picks up on our storm this run...

[chrisnnavarre]

I have a question. With Fay forecast to move off to the NE out of MS/AL later today (looks like it's already happening), would this leave a weakness in the ridging over the central gulf?

That's the million dollar question there... that and how far future Gustav moves west..and misses Haiti.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm afraid Gustav is going to bring you more than just rain this time

[gatorcane]

GFS long-range (5 day) 500MB steering shows the ridge has broken down over Florida, similar to the steering Fay faced:

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS coming in..out to 30 hours..I have class in 15 minutes so wont be able to post all of it

[ROCK]

GFS long-range (5 day) 500MB steering shows the ridge has broken down over Florida, similar to the steering Fay faced:

also shows an out into the ALT also.

[Sanibel]

That eye makes it easier to track. Extrapolation of movement suggests a possible clip of the south arm of Haiti if this is moving towards a weakness as told.

[Wx_Warrior]

According to the ridge, and that's according...it's either South Texas or Florida.

[Sanibel]

Edit: Wrong thread

[ROCK]

According to the ridge, and that's according...it's either South Texas or Florida.

Yeah, 60 hrs he's heading west also.. screwed up run? who knows.....it sure jumps around jamiaca and that area....

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep, GFS has been very bullish on this system and still looks to be confused.

[ROCK]

Yep, GFS has been very bullish on this system and still looks to be confused.

WXMN57 confirms the run as westward into the Yucatan or channel....we shall see.