Az Grill is Open:Huevos Rancheros Prognostico del Monsoon

[M2]

I had to take a break & run outside because according to the dopplar
radar link AZ posted...which I have running...a 'tongue' of something just
crossed our county line near me & the Pinal Co. line - I wanted to see what
is was IRL. Think it's all sideswiping me here....wonder if I took off right now
in the car, if I could intercept it on I-10???? See some boomers???

Azskyman - no wind chimes currently, but as you know that can change
with one blast of wind...I have different sizes/densities for different wind
speeds (a la Twister with the Aunt's huge wind gong clanging just before
it hit...). I know when it's getting bad by which set I hear outside.

[azskyman]

Clever idea M2. Different sizes for stronger gusts. Did you get thunder last night too. Two lightning strikes seemed to be down your way.

Mighty difficult air early this morning...clouds have held humidity to the ground.

[Stephanie]

Okay, this morning in The Philadelphia Inquirer, there was a blurb about how some rain had helped to douse some of the fire around Tucson yesterday. They mentioned the Santa Catalina area and said that it is helping the firefighters contain some of the fire. Is this true?

Here's the article;

Rain soaks Ariz. wildfire; N.M. fire 40 pct. contained

• Rain soaked parts of an Arizona mountain wildfire for the first time since the blaze broke out nearly a month ago and destroyed more than 300 homes and cabins, helping firefighters who are trying to keep it from growing. The fire in the Santa Catalina Mountains overlooking Tucson should be fully contained by Tuesday evening, fire officials said yesterday. In neighboring New Mexico, firefighters had a 5,370-acre fire near Taos Pueblo about 40 percent contained a week after it was started by lightning. So far this year, wildfires have blackened just a little more than 1 million acres, compared with nearly 3.2 million acres at the same time last year.

[Colin]

Well, that's definitley good news!

[Arizwx]

Okay, this morning in The Philadelphia Inquirer, there was a blurb about how some rain had helped to douse some of the fire around Tucson yesterday. They mentioned the Santa Catalina area and said that it is helping the firefighters contain some of the fire. Is this true?

Here's the article;

Rain soaks Ariz. wildfire; N.M. fire 40 pct. contained

• Rain soaked parts of an Arizona mountain wildfire for the first time since the blaze broke out nearly a month ago and destroyed more than 300 homes and cabins, helping firefighters who are trying to keep it from growing. The fire in the Santa Catalina Mountains overlooking Tucson should be fully contained by Tuesday evening, fire officials said yesterday. In neighboring New Mexico, firefighters had a 5,370-acre fire near Taos Pueblo about 40 percent contained a week after it was started by lightning. So far this year, wildfires have blackened just a little more than 1 million acres, compared with nearly 3.2 million acres at the same time last year.

Stephie,
Yes and no..the Santa Catalina Range is where I live..at the base nudged up against the W Face below Pusch Ridge wilderness area.home of the Big Horn Sheep(Rams).also the boundry of Catalina State Park and the Coronado National Forest.
The MCS/incoming 'Rimmers' actually did pose more of a Flood Threat to the burned areas with noticble 'Black Soot/Ash/Sand' running down in to the mid CDO(Canada del Oro)Wash last eve..and to some areas N face near Sabino Canyon.This is hampering crew from re seeding 10s of Thousands of acres as the Straw was just laid mid last week.Also..for full containment on Tues to become a reality..the massive LTG strikes and winds to 60+kt are dangerous for a refiring in unburned areas within and without the perimeter.IOW...little rain and LTG+Wind can spell more fire.
Hopefully..the RA was heavy enuf albeit I have to check the Mt Bigelow RAWS/WOS(I assume it's operational) data..to have been beneficial.I est possibly .34-.65 in may have fallen given the very modest runnoff down here in the 'Dooley Wash' which intesects the CDO wash and Old Coyote Trail tibutary nearer the 'Tortolita' range just to my NNW.The LTG also was bad in the 'Saguaro Natl' Monument..East TUS' where Palm trees in a lower subdivision exploded into flames in backyards where pool parties were going on!Yowsa!
Now then..the AZ Sunset Grillo was closed momentarily last eve due to very high winds which blew out the Grillo Flame which delayed my abilty to fill your order of 'Fajita de Bisteca con chiles Chipotles con Arroz y Frijoles Calientes de Oro Valley'.(This is served with Sour Cream and extra crisp Flour Tortillas)!LOL!
I'll fed-ex them out this PM if TIA is open for Biz...as more Rimshots are due in per 88-D de Tucson.
This could be the worst day of all.The massive Debris blew out last eve after midnight...the skies milky clr with lots of midlevel moisture..this is SUPERB!Temp at Hi-Noon=100F with 57F Dewpoint.Thats got a lifted index of -5 and a 1700j/kg+...Est of PW=1.30+Can the SPC say..'SWODY-1'!!!???Tormentas con Salsa!
Adios~

[Aslkahuna]

had "See Text" as they didn't think there would be widespread severe. A Pool Party during a thunderstorm? Reminds me of a remark Bill Reid made on video regarding Golfers he saw as he closed the Spencer SD tornado-"Potential Statistics". Had a great display here in SV though not much rain at the house and only 43 mph winds. Based upon dewpoints, TUS will probably declare the monsoon as having started on the 11th but based upon the pattern and the characteristic rainfall and temperature regime aspect, the models are saying the 16th. It will be a marginal call here though Douglas moistened up enough for the 11th also. FHU doesn't report on Sundays. At any rate, everything suggests that we will be in a good monsoon pattern down here this coming week. Since I took time to check SPC, which I normally don't do for down here indicates my thoughts are the same about activity tonight. But if we get Rimmers, all I'll see will be lightning to the north since Rim Storms rarely come in here-last night was a bit east of the Rim which is why I got sideswiped.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

The peak temperature at the house today so far is 100.6F with all three shade thermometers indicating 100F or higher. This makes the 8th day in a row for 100F or higher here at the house-a new record since I started temperature records in 1988 eclipsing 7 days in a row set in late June 1994 (the record high for SV was set during that one at 108F) another hot period with nighttime thunderstorms and fire starting dry lightning.

Steve

[Stephanie]

DJ - well, I figured I'd get the real scoop from someone who's actually living there! I guess that the rain was better than nothing.

Tonight on TWC's map it showed rain speckled throughout the mid and southern portion of AZ (as of about 20 minutes ago). I hope this is a god sign of things to come!

[Aslkahuna]

leaving Cochise County now with the biggee in the Mescal Pass headed west. It has been warned as severe and looks it from here. The other is near Sonoita moving slightly north of east. Looks like a possible setup for a cell merger or outflow boundary intersection somewhere near or along Sahuarita Road or I-10 near Vail which could prove be nasty indeed.

Steve

[Arizwx]

leaving Cochise County now with the biggee in the Mescal Pass headed west. It has been warned as severe and looks it from here. The other is near Sonoita moving slightly north of east. Looks like a possible setup for a cell merger or outflow boundary intersection somewhere near or along Sahuarita Road or I-10 near Vail which could prove be nasty indeed.

Steve

Indeed..I've beem traking them...merger has verified..on I-19 between Sahurita and Green Valley..looks dam impressive..no rotation noted ATTM
however straightline winds to 65mph+ HVY RA+Hail,FF
I am verififying massive CG LTG outbursts from my upper deck view to the South 30+nm ...dam nice.Have fun!
WOW! UPDATE!I have est sfc winds 85+!!!!!!!!!!!Be dam careful!
More **Updates**..Geeus K-Rist//I have a similar situation in my backyard now......Marana/Oro Valley...I-10 Tangerine Rd winds past 70+mph!!Holy Incoming!
CHASER ONE..on the HUNT!
later...

[Aslkahuna]

reported 57mph gusts and DMA 62mph gusts-we had 40-50 here so the Tucson Valley has gotten blitzed again.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

Sounds like things are starting up in a big hurry! Now move this up to where Dennis lives (the rain, NOT the dry lightning)! Then things will be OK.

[Arizwx]

reported 57mph gusts and DMA 62mph gusts-we had 40-50 here so the Tucson Valley has gotten blitzed again.

Steve

We got Blindsided and good.Lost a Glass Window(sliding) to a crack from
a bow gust unoff at 78+mph...flying debris finished it off..Plastic covering may keep out most of the dust...went on a Short Chase..I mean short..
Went out Oracle Rd to First W to Lambert..N to Tangerine here in OV..Rancho Vistoso to Casas Abobes to Hardy rd..Thornydale to Cortaro Farms Rd W to the I-10...vis <.25 mi..winds gusting over 55-60 est.
Massive outflow from converging cells resulted in N Turn of MCS and massive outflow as seen on KEMX Doppler 88-D.
We had little or no warning.Some power outages..I'm on batt backup as we speak.NWS TUS again did NOT handle this anomoly well..forecaster 'Pytlak' finally handled the update well..but too late.
To their credit..TUS does a fantastic job..however..the current set up is so unusual..it is quite difficult..
More later.

[Stephanie]

DJ - I'm glad that you are alright and there wasn't any very serious damage.

I'm praying really hard for our buddies in Pinetop!

[Aslkahuna]

not handling the pattern well, it's SPC which was the gist of my son's Senior Research Paper at the UofA in which he discussed Severe events during the monsoon.

The Monsoon has officially begun according to TUS with the start date being the 11th. I will reluctantly go along since I have no nighttime or Sunday data from FHU to determine dewpoint trends. This means that my original outlook I posted last May for a start during the 7th through 11th of July was good and hit but since I issued a Dr. Gray Type Revision, I'll have to take a bust on it (that'll teach me never to second guess myself). I would have preferred to see the start with a more monsoony pattern but we take what we can get. We are now in a quiet period for the next couple of days or so which is typical following an intense start with a deeper monsoon patter expected to establish some time after Wednesday with the remnants of Claudette certainly needing to be looked out for this weekend.

Steve

[azskyman]

Indeed you boys are catching some good ones down your way the last couple of days. DJ...my short 6 years experience here tells me that early season storms like those tonight often settle or stay south of Picachio Peak. If so...then you must typically be on the northern third of these early season storms. Seems to wash out too by the time they head toward Sells.

[Aslkahuna]

of Nature's Fury though more luminous than windy here. Our lightning displays have been spectacular even by AZ standards with extremely frequent lightning. In their timing and appearance, they are a lot like those big storms we had in late June 1994 as that firghtful heat wave slowly wound down-our pattern is indeed very similar and if the trend follows 1994 then this could be a really good year for AZ storm chasers..

Steve

[Arizwx]

Good Afternoon From the 'Grillo de AZ' aka 'Sunset Grill'
Nothing makes me happier than to see a 'Go For the Fences' prog verify about to the letter...except for one thing.To see that dam Grinnin' Jackelope eat Crow Fajitas..cold!Perfect to enjoy the 'All Star Game' tonight with 'Gonzo' Swingin' For the Fences!
Darn thing put my prog on the Dart Board in the Billiard Room..smartazz 'Lope!Well..I hit Bullseyes and the prog maps and charts are now a piece of 'Folklore' here at the 'Grillo'.Even 'Enrique' made a short appearance from the Mexican EPAC!GOC Surgio to Yuma..nice!
All we need now..is for 'Claudia' to keep coming in on the Stage from Del Rio and Chihuahua...and we have ourselves the best darn 'Huevos Rancheros' this side of Nuevo Laredo!Con TRES Huevos!Tri Power on that fired up '427 Rat' Engine...she's a heavy breather firin' on all 8 cylinders!
The Monsoonal Flow has now estabished itself in all seriousness folks.Nice SE component..nice midlevel moisture..very good air dynamics..just Primo
for the onslaught of Senorita Tropicale Claudia.Expect 2-5 in RA in Nuevo Mexico and 2-4 here..near the 'Grillo de Monsoon'.
I have the cooks making Tortillas Especialmentes for her homecoming..cookie cutters shaped in the image of the classic pinwheel Hurricane..cut into the Soft Flour(Harinas)Tortillas..perfecto for the Mariscos(Seafood) de Guaymas 'Feast for the Beast'!!!
Blender is on 'Hi'...so let's welcome 'Claudia'..
'Cause all she wants to do is Dance..
And make Romance
We can feel the Heat
Comin' off the Street
She wants to Party!
Get Down!
And all she wants to do is
All she wants to do...
Is Dance!''
104F/Dp 55F/wind calm/haze/sun

[Stephanie]

Got my dancin' shoes on DJ!

[Aslkahuna]

See a down period tomorrow as the divergence and subsidence ahead of Claudette's remnants move in. Thursday evening could be interesting and Friday and Saturday even more. Tucson alerting for possible Spotter activation starting Thursday. Severes, heavy rain and even possible tornadoes could be the fare if Claudette follows the forecast. However, a word to the wise-the rule of thumb is that the safest place to be when a hurrican approaches is the 72 hour forecast position. Nasty storm on Tucson's NW side this afternoon. It formed on the outflow boundary from a line that formed on the dryline east of SV and which moved west. Two 200' radio towers near Ina and I-10 were blown down. To knock down those kinds of towers require winds gusting WELL over 75mph (more like 100+mph). We saw the storm from my son's apartment complex as we were heading out to dinner for his 21st Birthday. Great backsheared anvil showing updraft pulses and complex wind blown structure in the rain shafts.

Steve