ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

OK - I have a question. Our local met just said that "if"
Gustav effected our area (Ft. Myers) it would be "next"
weekend (as in Spt. 6-7) Did I hear him correctly?

However, as it seems to stand right now it will be off
our coast and head toward the panhandle.

Thanks

labor day weekend unless at moves at 2 mph like fay did for a time

[AL Chili Pepper]

So is the general consensus of a shift west for the cone at 5pm advisory or will NHC leave as is waiting for model data for the new runs?

After reading some of the points made by AFM and '57, along with Derek's forecast...I think the NHC track will move west. I don't think it'll be south of Cuba, maybe right down the middle. The NHC doesn't seem to like to make large shifts in their tracks, only gradually. Anyway, who knows...maybe it won't change at all.

[Max_Power]

Hey everyone,

I haven't been following much over the last week and all of a sudden we have another storm looming over us. Any risk of a western Gulf (SW LA, SE TX) threat? I know its early but the models looks to be all over the place right now. Just curious if this is a storm that has any chance to come our way.

At this point anything from Miami to Brownsville is a possibility.

[vbhoutex]

Hey everyone,

I haven't been following much over the last week and all of a sudden we have another storm looming over us. Any risk of a western Gulf (SW LA, SE TX) threat? I know its early but the models looks to be all over the place right now. Just curious if this is a storm that has any chance to come our way.

Always a possiblity with a storm in the current position, but per Wxman57 and AFM, with steering as currently progged for the next week it isn't extremely probable for Gustav to landfall anywhere close to our area.

[dwg71]

I would not expect much shift at all, certainly not in the short term.

[KWT]

When you have pretty much every model south of the /nhc track, you can pretty sure they will shift the track further south, to what degree would be the main question...

Eye is getting covered by cloud as new convection develops, maybe the starts of a decent CDO, we shall see in the next 12hrs or so, this clouding over right now isn't a bad sign in terms of its strength as the inner core looks good.

[dwg71]

When you have pretty much every model south of the /nhc track, you can pretty sure they will shift the track further south, to what degree would be the main question...

Eye is getting covered by cloud as new convection develops, maybe the starts of a decent CDO, we shall see in the next 12hrs or so, this clouding over right now isn't a bad sign in terms of its strength as the inner core looks good.

Models.... yes, storm... no. Gustav has followed NHC track, if anything its a little right of points, but not enough to make a difference..

[93superstorm]

Looks like its connected to 95l or something

[KWT]

Well yeah short term the track looks good I think as well but its after 24hrs that the models and the NHC storm track actually seperates, with the NHC keeping this close to NW whilst the models nearly ALL bend this back to the W, some even go WSW.

The NHC would be pretty bold to ignore the model shifts southwards totally.

[tgenius]

The only way I see them not budging is they see something the models don't OR they don't feel the model data for initialization is right.. otherwise, a shift to the left and moving SFL possibly out of the cone.

[HouTXmetro]

Hey everyone,

I haven't been following much over the last week and all of a sudden we have another storm looming over us. Any risk of a western Gulf (SW LA, SE TX) threat? I know its early but the models looks to be all over the place right now. Just curious if this is a storm that has any chance to come our way.

Always a possiblity with a storm in the current position, but per Wxman57 and AFM, with steering as currently progged for the next week it isn't extremely probable for Gustav to landfall anywhere close to our area.

Things could change this far out but right now I think SETX is safe. Just stay tuned to the NHC and did I mention, "Are You Ready For Some Football?!"

[hiflyer]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Visible floater seems to show disruption caused by the southern point of the Dominican Republic....very short term as the band appears to reform just after passage. Good size cloud tops starting to cover up both DR and Puerto Rico from south to north per the loop....

[HURAKAN]

[gtalum]

ROFL! I always love slackuweather's cones.

Not only is it ridiculously large, but they also have the squiggly arrow pointed right at Miami, specifically designed to create maximum hysteria.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's not looking quite as good on satellite as it was earlier, looks a bit more blobish....I'm siding with the NHC that the strengthening will be slow...

[tgenius]

[quote="HURAKAN"][/quote

Sandy, How can Accuweather get away with that? It's ridiculous!

[Jimsot]

Lots of confidence with that graphic!

[gatorcane]

does it look like Gustav is spitting out a big piece of energy through and then ultimately north of Hispaniola?

[KWT]

CZ, it doesn't matter, if anything the deep convection would suggest faster development, watch for a much more defined eye to emerge near landfall in SW Haiti. The thing is the eye it had was more due to lack of any strong CDO being there, willing to bet thats the CDO forming right now.

[Stormavoider]

[/quote

Sandy, How can Accuweather get away with that? It's ridiculous!

BUT, It will verify!