ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ericinmia]

What's anyone's take on the Gustav and that mess/95L out there in the atlantic interacting???

Couldn't they pull eachother in? As in Gustav pulling the 95L down and preventing it from a more northerly heading, and in response 95L would pull Gustav farther north?

It appears that they are interacting to some degree or other...

Once again, i'm just an idiot though. I'll wait for a met to chime in on this possible Fujiwara dance.
-Eric

[Rainband]

Keep on Topic Guys. there is a Sports forum. thanks

[greels]

Wow! What a surprise>

Question for you......in as much as Hispaniola is basically my next door neighbor, should I have concerns about Gustav having any effect on us here in The Turks & Caicos?

If so, we won't have much forewarning......

[msbee]

Looks like its connected to 95l or something

I am confused now. what is that out to the East of the islands? and which way is it going?

We have had dark skies and heavy thunder here all aftenoon but no rain.

[Ivanhater]

New track

[KWT]

There probab ly won't be any interaction with 95L and Gustav, even if there is Gustav will suck in 95L not the other way round if anything even close to the sort of thing happened as Gustav is far far far strong and more deifned than 95L...however I think the chancde sof any major interaction are fairly close to 0 IMO.

[gatorcane]

The NHC has ever so slightly shifted the cone left -- but as some members noted did not bite all the way just yet.

[dwg71]

CZ, it doesn't matter, if anything the deep convection would suggest faster development, watch for a much more defined eye to emerge near landfall in SW Haiti. The thing is the eye it had was more due to lack of any strong CDO being there, willing to bet thats the CDO forming right now.

I'll take that bet...

It still has a ways to go, RI is not imminent.

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

that was hardly a track shift in my opinion though....now all of southern Florida and some of Central Florida is well within the cone....and equally all of Cuba and just about all of the Bahamas.

[KWT]

I don't think RI is going to happen either but its going to get stornger faster with deep convection over its inner core then without deep convection, at this stage in the game anyway.

Also note the track has shifted a little westward, the NHC will shift west again next advisory IF the 18z models are close to the 12z models as well, remember for continutiy they won't make huge changes at this sort of range.

[Sanibel]

NHC track towards that arm of Haiti looks like a given.


Now this one appears to be having organizational/intensity issues. Certainly no RI from that messy structure and eye.

[mattpetre]

I really hope the folks of Jamaica don't believe they are 100% in the clear yet, I think this could still quite possibly effect them. I'm still going out on a limb to say it will not make landfall on the limb of Haiti...

[gatorcane]

I think this is the key phrase from the NHC. The path is up in the air at this point. It could track as far right as the Central Bahamas or as far left as Jamaica.

NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS...AND ONE SHOULD
NOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2036.shtml

[hiflyer]

From the 5pm discussion:

THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED
OF 67 KT.

I would have a little more confidence if there had been more than just one pass thru the system.......I'm sure the NHC feels the same way. Next one due in just after midnight if they hold to schedule....will make the 5am discussion interesting I would think.

[RL3AO]

A little left or right of track would make it miss or almost miss Cuba entirely.

[Steve]

>>ROFL! I always love slackuweather's cones.

Yeah, that's pretty bad even for them.

>>Sandy, How can Accuweather get away with that? It's ridiculous!

Because it's a "free country." Their M.O. is that the private sector can do better than what the public sector can do with almost anything. They were behind the effort to rip off Americans by getting the information for free that taxpayers pay for and getting permission to turn around and charge us for the re-distribution of that very same information. I specifically remember the point in the bill prohibiting the NOAA/NWS from putting out any products that the private sector was putting out. Basically, along with checkpoint and other data brokers, they wanted to screw American people for information we paid for. It's like the extreme edge of capitalism. Fortunately their bill - as well as chief sponsor former Senator Rick Santorum - went down in defeat.

Until the day I die, that will always be a tough pill to swallow and will unfortunatley bias me against Accuweather.

/back to the cone

Yeah, the 7 day cone is outrageous. Might as well say it's going to be somewhere "near the islands" without specifying which ones. And their catch name [tm]'s are kind of stupid too - "Forecast Eye Path". Yeah whatever.

Steve

[micktooth]

I don't think RI is going to happen either but its going to get stornger faster with deep convection over its inner core then without deep convection, at this stage in the game anyway.

Also note the track has shifted a little westward, the NHC will shift west again next advisory IF the 18z models are close to the 12z models as well, remember for continutiy they won't make huge changes at this sort of range.

[KWT]

Yeah I think the key really is that we don't have a huge amount of confidence later on though given the big models all agree on the track shifting west and going close to if not soiuth of Cuba suggests there is a greater chance of that then the previous northerly track of the NHC.

[Stormcenter]

NHC track towards that arm of Haiti looks like a given.


Now this one appears to be having organizational/intensity issues. Certainly no RI from that messy structure and eye.

It does not look as impressive as it did this morning.
The NHC even mentions it in their latest discussion.