ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

I'm still going out on a limb to say it will not make landfall on the limb of Haiti...

Nope. Watch it track across Haiti.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, the NHC even admitted in the last discussion that it's looking really ragged looking compared to earlier...
No strengthening in the short-term, that's for sure....

[KWT]

The problem is its starting to get a little lop sided with the strongest convection on the southern side. I'd expect it will still strengthen but don't expect any RI from this system with that presentation, still lets see how the deep convection develops over the next few hours.

[RL3AO]

My thinking is the NHC is too far east with this track. Huge difference between going down the spine of Cuba or going north or south of Cuba.

[Jimsot]

I am confused now. what is that out to the East of the islands? and which way is it going?

We have had dark skies and heavy thunder here all aftenoon but no rain.

Maybe a Gustav feeder band out on the edge. We have had about (.10 ) inches of rain here at Sandy Hill Bay to your North, but it has been an interesting day with very unstable air and lots of thunder!

[Cryomaniac]

Their M.O. is that the private sector can do better than what the public sector can do with almost anything.

The thing is, they can for most things. But not weather forecasting it seems.

[Stormcenter]

From the 5pm discussion:

THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED
OF 67 KT.

I would have a little more confidence if there had been more than just one pass thru the system.......I'm sure the NHC feels the same way. Next one due in just after midnight if they hold to schedule....will make the 5am discussion interesting I would think.

Didn't anyone tell you the cost of gasoline is still almost $4 a gallon?
It's obvious they were trying save fuel.

[Ivanhater]

I think it is interesting the 18z NAM also doesn't develop Gustav, but does 95L...I wonder if that will cause gustav problems..likely no, but if the 00Z GFS doesn't develop it either, could be a possibility

[Air Force Met]

that was hardly a track shift in my opinion though....now all of southern Florida and some of Central Florida is well within the cone....and equally all of Cuba and just about all of the Bahamas.

The day 3 point is 120 miles further west. Day 5 is 180 miles further west. That's a pretty big shift.

[gatorcane]

that was hardly a track shift in my opinion though....now all of southern Florida and some of Central Florida is well within the cone....and equally all of Cuba and just about all of the Bahamas.

The day 3 point is 120 miles further west. Day 5 is 180 miles further west. That's a pretty big shift.

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[SouthFLTropics]

Edit to add disclaimer

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Let the Wobble Wars begin...

I still believe, as I stated last night, that Gustav will shoot the gap between Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispanola. After that I would expect a turn more to the North at some point but at this time where that turn takes place...well I just don't know. Obviously where it takes place is going to be the key for where any CONUS strike takes place. I would say that everyone from the Carolinas to NOLA should be on guard at this time. Going to be some long days and nights ahead for all of us here at S2K...

SFT

[KWT]

Very easily gatorcane, they also have a faster motion as well as a more westerly track as well. I think that sort of shift in terms of NHC shifts is pretty decent.

[pojo]

From the 5pm discussion:

THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED
OF 67 KT.

I would have a little more confidence if there had been more than just one pass thru the system.......I'm sure the NHC feels the same way. Next one due in just after midnight if they hold to schedule....will make the 5am discussion interesting I would think.

Didn't anyone tell you the cost of gasoline is still almost $4 a gallon?
It's obvious they were trying save fuel.

that's for vehicles....
JP8 and Jet A are roughly $7/gal....

[T'Bonz]

If it survives, looks to be a GOMmer to me. Fay looked more like it had a shot at S. Florida, this one seems like it won't.

Of course, a prudent person always expects the unexpected.

[HURAKAN]

that's for vehicles....
JP8 and Jet A are roughly $7/gal....

Don't come here to brag to the poor people!!!



I see t-storms beginning to pop near the eye feature.

[Stormcenter]

If it survives, looks to be a GOMmer to me. Fay looked more like it had a shot at S. Florida, this one seems like it won't.

Of course, a prudent person always expects the unexpected.

A GOMER then Florida panhandle but of course this is highly
subject to change every few hours or so.

[Air Force Met]

that was hardly a track shift in my opinion though....now all of southern Florida and some of Central Florida is well within the cone....and equally all of Cuba and just about all of the Bahamas.

The day 3 point is 120 miles further west. Day 5 is 180 miles further west. That's a pretty big shift.

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Because I measured the distance between the day 3/5 points on the 1st advisory...and the day 3/5 points on the last advisory instead of looking at a loop of a cone...WHICH AGAIN...is just a 170 NM circle drawn around the day 3 POINT...and a 305 NM circle drawn around the day 5 point. All the circles of 2/3 error drawn around the forecasts points are connected at their widest points to make "the cone." Hence the reason it appears to have not moved that much.

But day 5 went from 22.5/78 to 23/81. That's 177 NM according to the coordinates measuring tool on HURREVAC.

Data based on the POINTS...not a guess based on the cone (which is also based on the points).

[dwg71]

that was hardly a track shift in my opinion though....now all of southern Florida and some of Central Florida is well within the cone....and equally all of Cuba and just about all of the Bahamas.

The day 3 point is 120 miles further west. Day 5 is 180 miles further west. That's a pretty big shift.

If you extrap the 11AM track outward, it is nowhere near 180 miles west. The ending points may be 180 miles different, but that is apples and oranges.

[pojo]

OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

when I left Oshkosh I was paying $5.44/gal for avfuel (100LL)

[x-y-no]

that was hardly a track shift in my opinion though....now all of southern Florida and some of Central Florida is well within the cone....and equally all of Cuba and just about all of the Bahamas.

The day 3 point is 120 miles further west. Day 5 is 180 miles further west. That's a pretty big shift.

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

3 day:

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W

vs

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W...INLAND



5 day:

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 78.0W

vs

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND