ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[TSmith274]

So the GFS loses it? I thought I saw that it had it in the N. central gulf long range. What am I missing?

[canegrl04]

So the GFS loses it? I thought I saw that it had it in the N. central gulf long range. What am I missing?

Keep in mind that GFS lost Dean last year,too .At the time ,it was just turning into a TS

[KWT]

It also never really showed Feklix as anything more than maybe a very weak closed system when it was bombing into a category-5 hurricane...

GFS is good for synoptic but the global models in general just don't have the resolution to predict strength all that well.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Will have to watch for a trough or Fay's influence once near the gulf,
inducing a north motion....in 4 days....

[KWT]

Yeah I think the models are sensing that weakness in the central gulf and thats why quite a few of them lift this system around 96-120hrs after that west bend back.

[Wx_Warrior]

My gut is telling me that ridge over florida is going to break down...Hope not for floridians sake.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL tracks south of Cuba into the GOM.

WHXX04 KWBC 252328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.8 70.5 310./13.0
6 16.4 71.1 315./ 8.5
12 16.9 71.8 305./ 8.3
18 17.8 72.6 316./11.6
24 18.5 73.3 313./ 9.6
30 18.7 74.1 289./ 7.5
36 18.8 74.9 274./ 7.9
42 18.7 75.6 265./ 6.5
48 18.6 76.0 256./ 4.4
54 18.8 76.6 285./ 5.2
60 18.7 77.2 261./ 5.6
66 18.6 77.8 264./ 5.9
72 18.8 78.4 288./ 6.2
78 19.0 79.2 284./ 8.3
84 19.2 80.0 280./ 7.7
90 19.6 80.9 301./ 9.2
96 20.3 81.8 303./11.2
102 21.1 82.9 306./12.5
108 21.9 84.2 302./14.7
114 22.7 85.4 304./13.5
120 23.5 86.4 307./12.3
126 24.3 87.4 312./12.0

[KWT]

The strength forecast from the GFDL will be very interesting given this path, though given the GFS lost it wonder if the GFDL will show a powerful system or not...the track would suggest a major hurricane but we shall see!

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep, that's what concerns me....GFDL is going to fell that tug...NE GOM....but need to wait a few more days.

EDIT: SE to NE....long day

[DESTRUCTION5]

This run of the GFDL evades all Land..Im gonna say strength is gonna be Huge!

[Stormcenter]

Like I said before the GFS was one of the first models to catch on to Fay's crazy track. I wouldn't just write off what it's showing.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL..105 knots..946mb

HOUR: .0 LONG: -70.49 LAT: 15.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.52
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.10 LAT: 16.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.38
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.80 LAT: 16.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.41
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.62 LAT: 17.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.10
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -73.34 LAT: 18.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.03
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -74.08 LAT: 18.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.38
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -74.91 LAT: 18.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.15
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -75.59 LAT: 18.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.79
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -76.04 LAT: 18.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.80
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.57 LAT: 18.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.05
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.15 LAT: 18.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.09
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.77 LAT: 18.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.41
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.39 LAT: 18.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -79.24 LAT: 19.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.99
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -80.04 LAT: 19.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.24
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -80.87 LAT: 19.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.37
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -81.85 LAT: 20.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.30 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.15
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -82.90 LAT: 21.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.82
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -84.22 LAT: 21.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.09
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -85.41 LAT: 22.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.54
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -86.45 LAT: 23.45 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):109.40
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -87.39 LAT: 24.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.32

[perk]

GFDL..105 knots..946mb

HOUR: .0 LONG: -70.49 LAT: 15.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.52
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.10 LAT: 16.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.38
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.80 LAT: 16.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.41
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.62 LAT: 17.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.10
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -73.34 LAT: 18.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.03
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -74.08 LAT: 18.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.38
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -74.91 LAT: 18.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.15
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -75.59 LAT: 18.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.79
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -76.04 LAT: 18.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.80
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.57 LAT: 18.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.05
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.15 LAT: 18.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.09
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.77 LAT: 18.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.41
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.39 LAT: 18.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -79.24 LAT: 19.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.99
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -80.04 LAT: 19.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.24
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -80.87 LAT: 19.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.37
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -81.85 LAT: 20.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.30 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.15
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -82.90 LAT: 21.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.82
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -84.22 LAT: 21.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.09
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -85.41 LAT: 22.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.54
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -86.45 LAT: 23.45 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):109.40
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -87.39 LAT: 24.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.32

Ivanhater would this GFDL run signify a west shift.

[Ivanhater]

a bit..nothing big though

[Rainband]

Keep this thing away from florida this is the last thing we need.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF...911mb

18Z HWRF Gustav


HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -70.40 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.00 LAT: 16.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.00 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -72.70 LAT: 18.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -73.30 LAT: 18.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 19.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.40 LAT: 19.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.50 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.30 LAT: 19.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.00 LAT: 19.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 19.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.00 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -78.80 LAT: 19.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.60 LAT: 19.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -80.40 LAT: 19.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -81.20 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -81.90 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -82.60 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -83.50 LAT: 21.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 913.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 118.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -84.40 LAT: 22.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 918.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 114.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -85.20 LAT: 23.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 911.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 117.00

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Well both the higher resolution models are suggesting major, if it takes the path they expect I see no reason why this can't become as strong as they expect, though the HWRF may be a little overe the top the heat content probably would support that strength IF the upper conditions are present.

[cycloneye]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Nikki: Ay caramba!

Chrissy: Holy Poop!