ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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cpdaman
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Re: Re:

#1981 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:42 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
KWT wrote:55kts now, hardly surprising given the inner core is continuing to rev up quite nicely at the current time, as lnog as the inner core continues to look pretty decent then Gustav will strengthen.

I expect 60 kt at 11pm...this thing is definitely strengthening now and once that ne quad closes off then this thing should begin to take off.


i definitely agree that should the NE quad close off this will take off

the thing w/ gustav is that he is tiny, and he would wind up very fast IMO, i'm just not that confident the NE quad will close off any time soon.......ok now i just watch and wait :)
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Re:

#1982 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:43 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Interesting verification from Dr. Masters.... This was for FAY

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/i ... verify.gif


Looks like the GFS took home the cake on that one.
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Re: Re:

#1983 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:44 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
KWT wrote:55kts now, hardly surprising given the inner core is continuing to rev up quite nicely at the current time, as lnog as the inner core continues to look pretty decent then Gustav will strengthen.

I expect 60 kt at 11pm...this thing is definitely strengthening now and once that ne quad closes off then this thing should begin to take off.



I agree strongly. I can't wait intil recon gets into it tonight.
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1984 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:44 pm

Latest image.

Image
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Re: Re:

#1985 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:46 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Interesting verification from Dr. Masters.... This was for FAY

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/i ... verify.gif


Looks like the GFS took home the cake on that one.



Yeah, for a global model to beat all the hurricane models is something. The Gfs can be very good some times.
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1986 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:46 pm

Looks like a big hunk of energy got cleaved off by Hispaniola. Gus is connected to a wave-like line of convection that stretches up above Hispaniola and is probably enhanced by the TUTT edge up there. I think it had the effect of cutting off a piece of Gus and robbing it of NE inflow.

Track is dead on NHC across the south arm of Haiti for those speculating track behavior. NHC track takes category 1 hurricane directly over Guantanamo.
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#1987 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:46 pm

About 2hrs old now but that microwave imagery shows a very neat inner core, certainly suggestive of a strengthening top end tropical storm. Recon will be interesting for sure.
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1988 Postby carversteve » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:48 pm

cpdaman wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Image


awesome ivan hater

feel free to keep these coming

Looks like this could miss haiti imuo.. But Jamica..hmmm!!(in my unofficial opinion)! The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Last edited by carversteve on Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1989 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:48 pm

Sanibel wrote:Looks like a big hunk of energy got cleaved off by Hispaniola. Gus is connected to a wave-like line of convection that stretches up above Hispaniola and is probably enhanced by the TUTT edge up there. I think it had the effect of cutting off a piece of Gus and robbing it of NE inflow.

Track is dead on NHC across the south arm of Haiti for those speculating track behavior. NHC track takes category 1 hurricane directly over Guantanamo.


yes that is what i was getting at.........also look at the microwave imagery .....this is tiny

could strengthen or weaken very fast, me thinks the land could kill this one easier than a fay , just because of the size.

Small storms do not handle land interaction very well

i think if this misses haiti to the Sw that it will likely find better conditions and BOMB, other wise , could be lucky to survive i think it's boom or bust with this one
Last edited by cpdaman on Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1990 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:49 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Image


What satellite is that from and where are its images?
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1991 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:49 pm

Ok...just got back in from our trip to Puerto Rico and find out Gustav has joined the tropical party for the year....I see the forecast track as of 5pm, but instead of reading 100 pages on this, was wondering if someone would be kind enough to give me a Cliff's notes version of the general thinking, steering issues/currents, etc. Thanks a bunch! :wink:
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#1992 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:55 pm

Looking at the satellites and thinking Recon missed the strongest part of the storm, I'd say 65 kt right now (pressure about 988mb).
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1993 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:56 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Image


What satellite is that from and where are its images?


Took it off another site, I think somebody just saved images and photobucketed it
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Re: Re:

#1994 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:56 pm

cpdaman wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
KWT wrote:55kts now, hardly surprising given the inner core is continuing to rev up quite nicely at the current time, as lnog as the inner core continues to look pretty decent then Gustav will strengthen.

I expect 60 kt at 11pm...this thing is definitely strengthening now and once that ne quad closes off then this thing should begin to take off.


i definitely agree that should the NE quad close off this will take off

the thing w/ gustav is that he is tiny, and he would wind up very fast IMO, i'm just not that confident the NE quad will close off any time soon.......ok now i just watch and wait :)


I agree that Gustav is going to be a tiny storm...Once all that convection to the north of it gets out of the way, you'll see how tiny it is....but tiny can still be deadly of course...
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#1995 Postby 93superstorm » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:Latest image.

Image


Very impressive. Now its starting a new round of impressive convection( grey tops). Models continue to show this to really ramp up when passing near Jamaica or it could already be strong before jamaica

Image
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Re: Re:

#1996 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:03 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
I agree that Gustav is going to be a tiny storm...Once all that convection to the north of it gets out of the way, you'll see how tiny it is....but tiny can still be deadly of course...


Once we start getting EWRC's the wind field should start to expand and we won't be dealing with such a tiny system any more or Gustav could just stay tiny but I don't think so!
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1997 Postby Smurfwicked » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:04 pm

Everybody is talking about how tiny it is, somebody correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it have the chance to get larger as it strengthens and doesn't the wind field normally increase with strength?
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Re: Re:

#1998 Postby jaxfladude » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:07 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Looks to be close to hurricane status.

Yep, already an eye forming...can you believe this just formed today? If this is bumped up at 11pm or 5 am, wouldnt this beat out Humberto? That looks possible once deep convection wraps totally around the center.


That is not eye forming so fast is it?
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Re: Gustav Update=Best Track intensity up to 55kts,993 mbs

#1999 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:07 pm

Smurfwicked wrote:Everybody is talking about how tiny it is, somebody correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it have the chance to get larger as it strengthens and doesn't the wind field normally increase with strength?


Usually yes when it goes through ERC's, but sometimes they stay small (i.e. Charley, Felix).
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Re: Re:

#2000 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:08 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Looks to be close to hurricane status.

Yep, already an eye forming...can you believe this just formed today? If this is bumped up at 11pm or 5 am, wouldnt this beat out Humberto? That looks possible once deep convection wraps totally around the center.


That is not eye forming so fast is it?


I think it is!
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