ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[zaqxsw75050]

Which of these models is the "EURO"??

none

[TSmith274]

Id guess we can expect a NHC track shift southward. Thoughts?

[Ivanhater]

Id guess we can expect a NHC track shift southward. Thoughts?

Im about 95 percent sure they will...south of Cuba..and with that look for a big increase in intensity

[Stormcenter]

That HWRF run looks horrible, and especially alarming for New Orleans. It's still a long way out, but sheesh.

Actually it's probably good for New Orleans. Models never get it right this far (5 days or more) out.

[freeroam]

Question, at what point in time does the NHC place the land cone?

[RL3AO]

Question, at what point in time does the NHC place the land cone?

Huh? Do you mean how far out does it go? 5 days. Or did you mean when does the next one come out? 50 minutes or so.

[Stormcenter]

You heard it here first (i'll eat my crow)...I think the ridge crumbles and the cone will be CEN/NE GOM.

NE GOM sounds believable but I wouldn't bet a penny on it.

[TSmith274]

freeroam, they already have the cone

[freeroam]

Question, at what point in time does the NHC place the land cone?

Huh? Do you mean how far out does it go? 5 days. Or did you mean when does the next one come out? 50 minutes or so.

Thanks! 50 min to go. I am tired, and wanted to see the shift, if any before bed.

[Stormcenter]

If it makes in the GOM this storm is going hook to the N then NE at sometime. IMO

[ROCK]

You heard it here first (i'll eat my crow)...I think the ridge crumbles and the cone will be CEN/NE GOM.

NE GOM sounds believable but I wouldn't bet a penny on it.

SC, I wouldnt either....0z GFS tonight will be interesting....also those upper air flights tomorrow will likely nail this one down....hopefully...all I can say is some one on the Gulf Coast is in for a really bad weekend next week....

[ROCK]

If it makes in the GOM this storm is going hook to the N then NE at sometime. IMO

yeah they always do....but what we need to take into account is where Gustav enters the GOM. The 12z CMC depicted a more westerly track.........

[terrapintransit]

Which of these models is the "EURO"??

none

By the looks of these model runs this thing wants badly to enter the GOM..

[jaxfladude]

You heard it here first (i'll eat my crow)...I think the ridge crumbles and the cone will be CEN/NE GOM.

"Nuff Said.

[Recurve]

I think GFDL and shallow Bam have the solution for the time being. The deep Bam would make more sense but that's quite a southward turn. Still, CIMSS analysis shows that as possible for a medium depth system.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL....

Sorry, but scenario No. 2, to which for some reason am leaning heavily towards, is a South Texas/Mexico landfall.

[Sanibel]

Why is my TC Generation Models website still showing the 06Z GFDL run?

Anyone have the latest run?

[ROCK]

LOL....

Sorry, but scenario No. 2, to which for some reason am leaning heavily towards, is a South Texas/Mexico landfall.

Not leaning so much Mexico unless you mean the Yucatan......STX is a possiblity as is CTX, UTX, LA, MS,AL,FL......I think that about covers my landfall prediction...

Seriously, not going to make a call until the flights come in tomorrow and where the west turn happens and what area of the GOM, Gus actually enters at...

[boca]

At least S Florida can rest a little easier tonight knowing Gustav most likely will miss this part of Florida judging by the models and the NHC.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[tailgater]

LOL....

Sorry, but scenario No. 2, to which for some reason am leaning heavily towards, is a South Texas/Mexico landfall.

In south La. we call that crawfishing.