ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Well I hope no one is -removed- for this one...cause they will be sorry afterwards

[ROCK]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST but do you all remember when the NHC use to do percentage probability by city? For examble right now IfI had to assign a forecast percentage for final landfall area I would go with...

8% SE FL/East coast
23% FL West coast to Big Bend
35% Pensecola Westward to Nola
27% South Central LA
13% Upper TX/SWLA
18% Mid TX Coast
23% STX/ Northern MX coast

I use to love checking the latest NHC updates and precentages.

Can u provide the link to the site for future reference? Thanks in advance.

they did away with that some time ago Guru.....that is his own personal percentages...

[TrekkerCC]

I think it attains 145 kt south of Cuba.

I'm sorry but unless something extreme happens, this storm is not going to be a 145kts Hurricane south of Cuba. You must remember Category 5 storms are rare and storms generally (with exceptions) do not last in such a extreme state for long. NHC forecasts conservative intensity forecasts for a reason, as most storms do not rapidly deepen into monsters very often. I agree that TS Gustav might become a significant hurricane in the next few days, but I do not see such a monster as you are forecasting south of Cuba.

-TrekkerCC

[twister]

I live in SELA and am also getting anxious. The forecast AFM posted earlier really got my attention. On the side of caution, I will begin w/ prep. Topping off gas in vehicles before the price rises for starters. Just when gallon of gas was near $3.50.

[PTrackerLA]

Going to be a LONGGGG week of watching Gustav on here. I'm personally quite concerned about Gustav and possible impacts on the northern gulf coast early next week. Not good. [/quote

Looking at where the NHC has Gustav by Saturday at 2pm. A northern Gulf coast impact seems less likely and
NE Gulf coast impact more likely. IMHO
Now if she were coming through the Yucatan channel then it would be a different story. Anyway why be concerned? There
is nothing to worry about right now.

Well I consider the northern gulf coast as roughly SE TX - Florida Panhandle. The day 5 position basically stays on the same heading as it will on Wednesday according to the 11pm NHC track. When multiple models are forecasting a major hurricane in the southern gulf when we already have a storm near hurricane strength, is that not alarming? No need to panic, but GOM residents SHOULD be concerned IMO.

[cycloneye]

[mvtrucking]

I don't care for the name at all. Lets hope this thing disappears and quick..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have a sick sick feeling about Gustav. Even his name gives me the willies for some reason. It's bad enough he will slam into Hispaniola tomorrow, perhaps killing a lot of people. It'll be worse that he'll find his way into the Gulf, making someone's life miserable. This is the time of year when the storms get stronger and more dangerous. Gonna be a LOOONNNNGGGG week I'm afraid.

[cycloneye]

[Ptarmigan]

I think Gustav will be a Category 1 hurricane by tomorrow. Conditions are favorable for Gustav.

[twister]

I don't care for the name at all. Isn't it the name of the giant croc that has eaten more people than any other? Lets hope this thing disappears and quick..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have a sick sick feeling about Gustav. Even his name gives me the willies for some reason. It's bad enough he will slam into Hispaniola tomorrow, perhaps killing a lot of people. It'll be worse that he'll find his way into the Gulf, making someone's life miserable. This is the time of year when the storms get stronger and more dangerous. Gonna be a LOOONNNNGGGG week I'm afraid.

Yep. Time for Zantac. A long week indeed. Gus meandering in CS for a few days......ouch. I don't like the name either.

[Scorpion]

I think Gustav will be a Category 1 hurricane by tomorrow. Conditions are favorable for Gustav.

It's most likely one right now.

[Ptarmigan]

I'm sorry but unless something extreme happens, this storm is not going to be a 145kts Hurricane south of Cuba. You must remember Category 5 storms are rare and storms generally (with exceptions) do not last in such a extreme state for long. NHC forecasts conservative intensity forecasts for a reason, as most storms do not rapidly deepen into monsters very often. I agree that TS Gustav might become a significant hurricane in the next few days, but I do not see such a monster as you are forecasting south of Cuba.

-TrekkerCC

I think it could be a major hurricane, but not a Category 5 hurricane. Than again we never know.

[Texas Snowman]

Since Gustav is going to miss most of the DR/Haiti landmass, and the fact that it already has 70 mph winds, I think that a Cat 1 by morning is very possible, Cat 2 by tomorrow evening a distinct possibility.

[RL3AO]

5pm and 11pm track compare.

[Sanibel]

Will it trend more left again tomorrow?

[ConvergenceZone]

It if does follow the track that the NHC is saying, It makes me sick to my stomach to think about the amount of deaths this is going to cause in the carib...riding the coastline as a major hurricane is something that I don't even want to think about.....It's going to be a headline maker that's for sure, at least for the next week, and if it gets in the gulf as a major, oh boy..............

[USTropics]

I was interested in the origins of the name Gustav after debating with a friend whether it was Spanish or German. Found out the origin was Scandinavian and in its earliest forms can be translated to "staff of God". Just a little fyi, back on topic now.

[Ptarmigan]

It's most likely one right now.

Yeah, it could be.

[HouTXmetro]

Will it trend more left again tomorrow?

That's what I'm wondering. One more left shift and I think the threat to NOLA raises exponentially. Very concerning.

[bayoubebe]

If it follows the NHC's current track and does intensify into say a Hurricane 2, when will the Gulf States start to get ugly and feel the effects? Saturday?