ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2161 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:56 pm

Sanibel wrote:Will it trend more left again tomorrow?




well based on the 0z GFS at 54hrs it hangs out at Jamiaca for a few days..... :D
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2162 Postby latemodel25 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:57 pm

I wonder if i should reconsider a trip to new orleans this holiday wkend? guess i should wait until wednesday so the mets can get a better idea of where its going..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2163 Postby Innotech » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:58 pm

Im gonna make an early prediction now of the central gulf coast from N.O. to Pensacola for this storm. Its heading west but intensifying rapidly so it should curve more northward towards that area. that is assuming there arent major factors to swing it more easterly or westerly. this is just my early prediction though.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2164 Postby twister » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:58 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Not wasting much time, is he? I would tend to agree he is very close to being a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2165 Postby lbvbl » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:59 pm

Whats with the NOGAPS track??? To follow that, Gus would have to start going NE... like now
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2166 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:59 pm

A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.


You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2167 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:00 pm

ROCK wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Will it trend more left again tomorrow?




well based on the 0z GFS at 54hrs it hangs out at Jamiaca for a few days..... :D


Maybe the GFS thinks the steering currents will collapse around Jamaicia. Who knows? lol
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2168 Postby twister » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:01 pm

lbvbl wrote:Whats with the NOGAPS track??? To follow that, Gus would have to start going NE... like now



UKMET has gus going fishing.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2169 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:01 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.


You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?



Well the 0Z GFS is left....on this run....more west than I would have thought.,..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2170 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:03 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.


You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?


Looking at this historical map from Weather Underground where Gustav is located Texas gets the most hit if we were to use history. Not to scare anyone of course, but something to consider.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_climo.gif
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#2171 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:03 pm

Jamaica is going to get their worst hit in 20 years.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2172 Postby Over my head » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:04 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.


You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?



RITA? 2005 Sept 24th
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2173 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:06 pm

ROCK wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Will it trend more left again tomorrow?




well based on the 0z GFS at 54hrs it hangs out at Jamiaca for a few days..... :D


If that's the case it may never make it into the GOM.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2174 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:06 pm

twister wrote:
lbvbl wrote:Whats with the NOGAPS track??? To follow that, Gus would have to start going NE... like now



UKMET has gus going fishing.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html


Yea, the UKMET Track is totally Absurd.....Good entertainment though....or perhaps it's engaged in it's own wishful thinking......
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2175 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:06 pm

This is going to be lucky to hit Haiti at this point. I'll owe Mattpetre a cigar.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2176 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:07 pm

Rita did not officially make landfall in Texas, it hit the Louisiana coast near Holly Beach.

That's why I said the last direct hit, meaning eye making landfall. Last major hurricane hitting Texas in September was Celia hitting Corpus Christi in the early 1970s, I believe.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2177 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:09 pm

Now that I think about it, I guess that Rita was a direct hit in that SE Texas suffered a lot of impact from the storm even though it was in the offshore flow coming around the left side of the eye-wall.

Again, what I was meaning there is that the storm officially made landfall in Louisiana.

Just as an FYI, right now, I'm reading "A Weekend in September", a historical account of the 1900 Galveston hurricane by John Edward Weems. Great read.

Although I'm hoping that the "storm 200 miles south of Haiti", then "crossing Cuba", and finally dealing its deadly blow to Texas is not a foreshadowing of what's to come.
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2178 Postby TexWx » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:10 pm

I too think Jamaica is in the path.
I've been listening to Power 106 over there and no mention at all.

Ok maybe I'm reading too much into this... :ggreen:

Gustav = GAlVesTon & US
hmmm
Last edited by TexWx on Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2179 Postby Over my head » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:11 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Now that I think about it, I guess that Rita was a direct hit in that SE Texas suffered a lot of impact from the storm even though it was in the offshore flow side of the eye-wall for the most part.

Again, what I was meaning there is that the storm officially made landfall in Louisiana.



http://www.weather.gov/rita/rita_trak_lg.jpg Right on the line.


Officially. :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2180 Postby lbvbl » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:16 pm

If this thing does decide to stall, a forecast track shift is inevitable, considering the steering currents will continue to move while Gus is not. With that said, the questions remain..Will he stall? For how long? What will the steering currents do during this period?
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