ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Stormcenter]

Can't discount the GFS, let's see how persistent it is with this scenario.

Exactly you cannot discount the GFS and believe me the NHC won't either.

[RL3AO]

Yes you can throw it out. It won't be a depression in 4 days.

[Ivanhater]

Well basing just off the upper air dynamics..the time the gfdl and hwrf have this getting in the gulf..thats when the gfs builds any type of ridge in the gulf and a pretty thin one at that...sure if this weakens to a depression and sits in the NW caribbean for 3 days waiting on the ridge to build then the gfs might happen..but Im hedging on a stonger storm already entering the gulf while the gfs still has a depression sitting around Jamaica...

[MWatkins]

moving west now after zig zagging over Jam......Yucatan maybe??

Yeah, if it was a depression like the GFS is showing..the 500mb shows no ridge in the gulf at 72 hours..the GFS seriously needs to latch on..there is a near hurricane now!

Could not have said it better Ivanhater...there is no way that synoptic pattern could drive a hurricane westward at that longitude. Thanks for looking at the data and not the track from the model...

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea, I don't agree with the track. I do agree with a ridge over Texas...Something has to given sooner or later with the GFS...Will let it slide...Better perk up or I'm cheating on her with the EURO.

[Jam151]

If GFS varifyies It's Yucatan then Mexico!

Maybe, but it has a 500MB weakness right over the central Gulf by day 6. Add a major hurricane compared to a broad low to the mix and it may be a whole different story.....not to mention if you follow the 850MB vorticity on this run it still practically takes all of it toward Louisiana.

[cycloneye]

Distint from past runs,00z UKMET is Mexico all the way.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.08.2008



TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 71.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.08.2008 16.3N 71.7W WEAK

12UTC 26.08.2008 17.4N 72.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 27.08.2008 18.1N 72.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2008 18.3N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2008 18.6N 76.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.08.2008 18.5N 78.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.08.2008 18.3N 79.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 29.08.2008 18.6N 81.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 19.3N 84.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 19.7N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 31.08.2008 21.6N 89.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 21.7N 92.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 22.0N 94.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[vaffie]

For what it's worth, the latest 00Z Canadian model, which seems to have a lot of trouble initializing it, nevertheless does strengthen it into a storm, and tracks it towards SE Texas. Extrapolating it to landfall would result in Monday night/Tuesday morning. From looking at how the steering pattern develops, it appears that this pattern is the result of a very strong 95L in the west central atlantic keeping the high over the central plains-eastern United States strong and intact.

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL:Thru Western tip of Cuba ending in the middle of GOM.

WHXX04 KWBC 260531
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 71.1 310./ 9.9
6 17.3 71.8 318./10.3
12 18.0 72.8 306./11.6
18 18.5 73.6 298./ 9.3
24 18.7 74.1 299./ 5.2
30 18.7 74.9 267./ 8.0
36 18.8 75.3 293./ 4.4
42 19.0 76.1 281./ 7.1
48 19.0 76.8 274./ 6.8
54 18.9 77.6 260./ 8.0
60 18.9 78.2 265./ 5.2
66 18.9 78.9 275./ 6.9
72 19.1 79.7 284./ 7.1
78 19.4 80.6 286./ 9.1
84 19.7 81.5 293./ 9.2
90 20.2 82.4 299./10.5
96 21.1 83.5 309./12.8
102 21.9 84.6 304./13.5
108 22.9 85.8 311./14.7
114 23.9 86.9 313./14.4
120 24.9 88.0 311./14.0
126 25.8 89.2 306./14.0

[Scorpion]

[artist]

wow! is that 900??

[cycloneye]

wow! is that 900??

908 mbs.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yikes, I hope that doesn't verify..looks about 908 or so?

[jenmrk]

Just out of curiosity, what is the lowest pressure ever recorded for a land falling hurricane on the Gulf Coast?

[cycloneye]

artist,its 902 mbs,wow!

[Jagno]

I believe it was Hurricane Gilbert. 888
I know it affected Texas but I'm not sure if it actually made a US landfall there.

[vaffie]

0Z WRF takes it to 902.2 mb... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Maybe the models are just trying to tell us that conditions won't be so bad ... for development.

[Scorpion]

[PTrackerLA]

Could someone post the link for the GFDL and HWRF model animations? The link I have is running on Julio.

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL has lowest pressure of 916 mbs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

HWRF animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation