ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[attallaman]

>>Holy **** on the GFDL

Yeah, that's pretty horrific. If if verifies, just all of you guys remember that we brought a unique culture, great food, oil and gas, shipping, trade and fun from South Louisiana. We knew how to do things right.

Steve

What part of LA are you thinking landfall might be? W/LA, C/LA, or SE/LA? Where can I go see this GFDL model I'm reading so much about? The models on Weather Underground seem to be going all over the place.

[RL3AO]

>>Holy **** on the GFDL

Yeah, that's pretty horrific. If if verifies, just all of you guys remember that we brought a unique culture, great food, oil and gas, shipping, trade and fun from South Louisiana. We knew how to do things right.

Steve

What part of LA are you thinking landfall might be? W/LA, C/LA, or SE/LA? Where can I go see this GFDL model I'm reading so much about? The models on Weather Underground seem to be going all over the place.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008082600-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Aric Dunn]

well the way things are progressing we will most likely have a cat 3 sometime tomorrow .. probably by 11

[Aric Dunn]

yeah something wrong with the timing of the nasa site.... there is an image for 649 utc .. i have never seen an image for that time before

[Stratosphere747]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

well the way things are progressing we will most likely have a cat 3 sometime tomorrow .. probably by 11

If it tracks like the GFDL it will be making landfall on that mountain area of land around 6 hours from now. So no cat3 if so.

[Aric Dunn]

well the way things are progressing we will most likely have a cat 3 sometime tomorrow .. probably by 11

If it tracks like the GFDL it will be making landfall on that mountain area of land around 6 hours from now. So no cat3 if so.

will see .. i have plotted the motion for the past 6 hours its been a little more westerly 300 ish

[Cyclenall]

Yes, the 00Z GFDL model run shows a Katrina strength storm heading toward the general direction of New Orleans [*] near the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

* Model track subject to change

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO...Mexico and if you finish the run....look what happens to that storm just to the east of Florida.

[artist]

what is that on the east coast??

[attallaman]

>>Holy **** on the GFDL

Yeah, that's pretty horrific. If if verifies, just all of you guys remember that we brought a unique culture, great food, oil and gas, shipping, trade and fun from South Louisiana. We knew how to do things right.

Steve

What part of LA are you thinking landfall might be? W/LA, C/LA, or SE/LA? Where can I go see this GFDL model I'm reading so much about? The models on Weather Underground seem to be going all over the place.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008082600-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Thanks. Would I be correct in saying from looking at that animation the storm would hit central LA rather than SE LA? A MET on WGNO 26 last night said it's possible that Gustav could reach the GOM by Saturday as a CAT 3 and a ridge of high pressure would deflect the storm towards TX or a trough of L pressure coming from the N would pull the storm to the N. I don't know if he was just saying that as an example or he thought that was a distinct possibility.

[Innotech]

Im gonna rest just fine. the only time I havent rested before a hurricane was the day before Cat 4 hurricane Lili was bearing down on Lafayette. Thats because we evacuated north about 100 miles and were stuck at a campground hoping the tornadoes wouldnt make it up that far. they almost did.
Of course, I have to say that its also a bit exciting in a morbid, fascinating kind of way. I have a real passion for tracking these things and how they work and the sheer amount of power they produce. Its amazing how a few clouds in the ocean can spin up into a gigantic monster of a storm capable of leveling the better part of a county or two. Scary but intensely fascinating.

[Stratosphere747]

what is that on the east coast??

95L with the African wave that has exited the coast trailing behind.

[southerngale]

I've tought my wife how to read these models. When I showed her that she nearly fainted. It doesn't help that Texas is back in the danger zone. A storm that strong could care less about any high pressures. It'll plow right through it.

This is going to be one of THOSE storms. You guys know what I mean? Another Andrew possibly. It sucks that we KNOW that it will hit the US.

Actually, we don't KNOW that. I believe a few of the models show a Mexico landfall.

Also, I don't think it would just plow right through high pressure. There would have to be a weakness.

[Stratosphere747]

Texas was never out of the danger zone. Nor is Tampico, New Orleans, Tampa and so on across the Gulf. Heck for all we know this could continue to the N and never get into the Gulf.

It's a fluid situation with a rather complex setup right now. There are many scenarios in play and folks shouldn't get so fixated on the doom and gloom stuff..

[KWT]

Well we do have to note that some models are taking this into the Yucatan, both the UKMO and the ECM strengthen the high further north enough to send it west...however they don't relaly do anything with Gustav...

Meanwhile The GFS based models relaly power up Gustav into a monster cat-5...and given the expected track there is a really good chance of a cat-4/5 coming from this.

[deltadog03]

WTH is the EURO doing???

[KWT]

Well it builds the ridge in, to be fair the UKMO does exactly the same thing as well.

The big issue though is that both are probably going to be way way too weak therefore it may gain a little more poleward motion then those models expect. However even the GFDL has this lifting only once it reaches the far western tip of Cuba.

[vaffie]

0Z Nogaps has shifted significantly now and is in line with all of the other models with strong intensification--wouldn't you know it. Also heading fast on a Texas/Lousiana trajectory at the end.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Yep good model agreement on a track close or over the Yucatan it seems, then moving on to be a probable US threat.

Looking very likely this will become the big one this season...