ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Kennethb]

If you take JB's philosophy on what the Euro is doing, he would say if it shows something off of FL and in the W GOM, there is probably one system somewhere in between.

[karenfromheaven]

If you take JB's philosophy on what the Euro is doing, he would say if it shows something off of FL and in the W GOM, there is probably one system somewhere in between.

I'm not familiar with this JB idea. Could you elaborate? Are you suggesting there is/will be a system between Gustov and 95L?

[Viper54r]

If you take JB's philosophy on what the Euro is doing, he would say if it shows something off of FL and in the W GOM, there is probably one system somewhere in between.

huh

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 260823
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...


SUN-TUE...MID LEVEL HGHTS FALL ABOUT 20M AS THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE
N-NW SAGS SWD OVER THE STATE. MEANWHILE...RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG
AND OFFSHORE THE NERN SEABOARD...WHICH EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS THE
SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH. IF THIS PATTERN COMES TO FRUITION...WE COULD
SEE THE FIRST PERIOD OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES IN QUITE A
LONG TIME...PERHAPS THE ENTIRE SUMMER. THIS WOULD PUT ECFL INTO A
LATE-NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHRA REGIME...WITH LIMITED CHC FOR TS THRU
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 00Z ECM OFF ON IT`S OWN BRINGING A TC WWD INTO
THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE EAST COAST OF FL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS TRACK
SEEMS VERY DOUBTFUL...THINK ANY SYSTEM THAT SPINS UP WOULD BE MUCH
MORE LKLY TO BE FARTHER NE IN THE OPEN ATLC AS SHOWN BY THE GFS.


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

[xironman]

I think that is 95L

[Nimbus]

Gustav seems to have slowed and nearly stalled. Perhaps as wxman57 said it has come up against the ridge. The current ridge axis is near Key West. Short term a sharp direction change to almost due west is not out of question once motion resumes.

These highs build and move around too randomly to forecast accurately beyond a few days. Most of the models have a ridge steering Gustav west at least to the central gulf. The upper air forecast will be clearer once they get more high altitude data. We don't have time machines yet so there still will be some random evolution to the forecast regardless of the data resolution.

Is the current front running back through LA/TX forecast to be a player by any models as a weakness?

[dizzyfish]

It doesn't seem that the NWS in Tampa is sold on the long range whereabouts of Gustav. Here is a snippet from this mornings disco....

...ITS WAY TO EARLY
TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IF ANY GUSTAV WILL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ~90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

NOTE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
GUSTAV...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

[Portastorm]

Gustav seems to have slowed and nearly stalled. Perhaps as wxman57 said it has come up against the ridge. The current ridge axis is near Key West. Short term a sharp direction change to almost due west is not out of question once motion resumes.

These highs build and move around too randomly to forecast accurately beyond a few days. Most of the models have a ridge steering Gustav west at least to the central gulf. The upper air forecast will be clearer once they get more high altitude data. We don't have time machines yet so there still will be some random evolution to the forecast regardless of the data resolution.

Is the current front running back through LA/TX forecast to be a player by any models as a weakness?

It's actually an upper level trough and not a front. While we have high pressure slowly building in the state (Texas), NW-SE oriented, it really isn't all that strong. The ridge is expected to build stronger though by the weekend. How that affects Gustav . . . yeah, that'll be one important component.

[rockyman]

06z GFDL aiming toward MSGC:

CODE
HOUR: .0 LONG: -71.72 LAT: 16.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.81
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -72.63 LAT: 17.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -73.38 LAT: 17.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.01
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.99 LAT: 18.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.82
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -74.49 LAT: 18.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.42
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -75.22 LAT: 18.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.05
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -75.97 LAT: 18.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.42
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -76.67 LAT: 19.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.06
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.34 LAT: 19.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.80
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -77.94 LAT: 19.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.56
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -78.64 LAT: 19.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.05
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -79.44 LAT: 19.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.39
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -80.16 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.93 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.77
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -81.03 LAT: 20.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):127.36
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -81.97 LAT: 20.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 918.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):138.28
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -82.87 LAT: 21.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):130.34
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -83.91 LAT: 22.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):125.68
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -84.85 LAT: 23.53 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.76
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -85.77 LAT: 24.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):128.15
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -86.74 LAT: 25.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.31
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -87.63 LAT: 26.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):117.17
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -88.60 LAT: 28.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):117.64

[Meso]

06 HWRF



06 GFDL

[Ixolib]

NOT LIKING THAT 126-HOUR POSITION and INTENSITY AT ALL. (Sorry for yelling)

06z GFDL aiming toward MSGC:
CODE
HOUR: .0 LONG: -71.72 LAT: 16.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.81
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -72.63 LAT: 17.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -73.38 LAT: 17.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.01
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.99 LAT: 18.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.82
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -74.49 LAT: 18.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.42
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -75.22 LAT: 18.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.05
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -75.97 LAT: 18.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.42
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -76.67 LAT: 19.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.06
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.34 LAT: 19.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.80
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -77.94 LAT: 19.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.56
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -78.64 LAT: 19.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.05
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -79.44 LAT: 19.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.39
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -80.16 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.93 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.77
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -81.03 LAT: 20.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):127.36
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -81.97 LAT: 20.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 918.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):138.28
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -82.87 LAT: 21.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):130.34
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -83.91 LAT: 22.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):125.68
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -84.85 LAT: 23.53 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.76
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -85.77 LAT: 24.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):128.15
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -86.74 LAT: 25.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.31
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -87.63 LAT: 26.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):117.17
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -88.60 LAT: 28.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):117.64

[jimvb]

Category 5 hurricane. I'm surprised that the price of oil hasn't gone up.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06Z GFDL would put a end to rebuilding N.O. in a heartbeat...Good think its still 6 days out!

[Stormtrack03]

Category 5 hurricane. I'm surprised that the price of oil hasn't gone up.

Assuming Gustav maintains a similar track it has now... I suggest you fill up all your vehicles by this weekend before the gas spike next week.

[Stormtrack03]

1200z model run.. models are more tightly clustered, and very bad news for the gulf coast:

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 261224
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1224 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080826 1200 080827 0000 080827 1200 080828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 72.1W 18.8N 73.2W 19.3N 74.2W 19.5N 75.1W
BAMD 17.6N 72.1W 18.2N 73.3W 18.5N 74.5W 18.6N 75.7W
BAMM 17.6N 72.1W 18.5N 73.2W 18.9N 74.2W 19.0N 75.2W
LBAR 17.6N 72.1W 18.6N 73.1W 19.2N 74.1W 19.3N 75.1W
SHIP 80KTS 86KTS 89KTS 93KTS
DSHP 80KTS 83KTS 86KTS 90KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080828 1200 080829 1200 080830 1200 080831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 76.5W 20.8N 79.4W 22.5N 83.2W 24.3N 86.6W
BAMD 18.6N 77.0W 19.1N 79.7W 20.7N 82.7W 23.0N 85.3W
BAMM 18.9N 76.5W 19.5N 79.3W 21.0N 82.7W 23.1N 85.6W
LBAR 19.0N 76.2W 18.7N 79.3W 19.4N 83.2W 20.9N 86.8W
SHIP 95KTS 96KTS 90KTS 82KTS
DSHP 92KTS 93KTS 87KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 72.1W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 71.2W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 69.6W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 981MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

[deltadog03]

Gfdl still looks a bit too quick. Either way looks like they are moving a bit towards the NW to N at the end.

[Stormcenter]

The good thing for N.O. is this far (6 days) out the models (especially GFDL) are rarely correct. Gustav is either going to the left or right of that. If I had to bet $$$ I say to the right.

[PTrackerLA]

Clock radio alarm went off this morning and they were discussing Gustav, not good! Not liking the models coming into agreement on a northern gulf coast landfall .

[dwg71]

I would be very concerned if I lived from Homa to PCB, imo. The models are beginning to have some consensous and that is when it gets scary.