ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah thats really interesting to look at texas snowman I note that the 1915 galveston hurricane is on there as well...
I think if this reaches south of Cuba do the track comprasion then and you'll see some utter beasts pop up...

NW eyewall is now open as well according to recon, suspect land interaction maybe starting to ramp up?

[HURAKAN]

It seems Gustav is now Fay, wasted no time on becoming a hurricane.

[KWT]

Yep Gustav has already gone further than Fay ever good, even tohugh you could argue Fay had a better atmosphere to work with.

Still Gustav already is a pretty impressive system, but I'm pretty confident down the road its going to look even more impressive.

[cycloneye]

[Shockwave]

Yep Gustav has already gone further than Fay ever good, even tohugh you could argue Fay had a better atmosphere to work with.

Still Gustav already is a pretty impressive system, but I'm pretty confident down the road its going to look even more impressive.

I, sadly, have to agree with you. Gustav is not playing around like Fay did and it seems like if he gets out in the open waters, he won't have trouble strengtening like Fay did.

[HURAKAN]

Since Humberto we don't see a storm not wasting time on strengthening.

[xironman]

This one came up pretty fast, anyone have an idea how well Haiti is prepared for it?

[HURAKAN]

If this is actually the track, the NHC has been very conservative on strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

This one came up pretty fast, anyone have an idea how well Haiti is prepared for it?

Haiti is never prepared for a tropical cyclone.

[deltadog03]

Short term movement is going to be very crucial to see where this goes over cuba...Or south of there. Fact is, I still see somewhat of a weakness over Haiti...I guess that would explain the 335-345 movement??

[Sihara]

Short term movement is going to be very crucial to see where this goes over cuba...Or south of there. Fact is, I still see somewhat of a weakness over Haiti...I guess that would explain the 335-345 movement??

Isn't 335 more like a NNW track? Would that put Gustav between Cuba and Haiti, possibly going over the narrow peninsula of Haiti - and how long would it take the storm to reach that area?

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260926
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...AT 0900Z...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE
GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 100 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AWAY FROM THE
FA. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Sihara, that too is a possibility. It would be a good scenario too, since then the storm is more likely to track over a greater portion of Cuba, right over the spine, for probably a long time. That would keep Gustav in check.

But most models are now trending to a more southerly route. As the storm is drifting very slowly now, we'll see lots of wobbly movement. But if that ridge is there, it will be generally westward movement from here on out until it gets to near western Cuba.

Then its anyone's game.

95L is supposedly able to hit east Florida, which is strange if there is supposedly a big ridge over the state. by then maybe not. -which would influence Gustav's direction.

Also, there is a front coming down that is supposed to be lying across the northern part of the eastern gulf and north florida. Will that be able to pull Gustav north and NNE? -or will he simply keep heading west? The stronger a storm, the more poleward movement it naturally seeks. It needs a blocking mechanism to keep from doing that. Will there be one by the time it gets to the gulf?

still too many questions to be certain on final path. Everyone needs to be wary.

[deltadog03]

It won't last long no...The VDM's look like its maybe a hair north of NW....

[cycloneye]

First visible pic for today:

[HURAKAN]

Lighted up!

[Pearl River]

If someone posted this eralier, sorry:

From LIX:

LONG TERM...
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY BUT
WITH A DEGREE OF UNEASINESS AS HURRICANE GUSTAV APPEARS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY WAY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF GUSTAV. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE
NEARING THE PEAK OF THE SEASON...WHICH IS SEPTEMBER 10TH. THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SHOWS 10 NAMED STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING
OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE 1851. CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE HIGHEST HEAT CONTENT IS FOUND. AN EDDY
OF VERY WARM WATERS RESIDES AROUND 25N 90W BUT WATER HEAT CONTENT
AND DEPTH REALLY FALL OFF NORTH OF 27N...WHICH MAY WORK IN
SOMEONE`S FAVOR WHEREVER GUSTAV ULTIMATELY TREKS. DEEP LAYERED
WIND PROFILES OVER THE SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN THE CATEGORY 3 RANGE...AND A FEW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY MODELS DO RAMP INTENSITY OF GUSTAV INTO LOW END CATEGORY
5 THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS LEVEL OFF IN THE LOW END
CATEGORY 3...WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SUPPORTS. HOPE THE ADDED
INFORMATION WAS WORTH THE TARDINESS. TIME WILL TELL IF WE MAY BE
FACED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTINY ALONG OUR SHORES. CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRUDENT OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

[fasterdisaster]

Looking good.

[O Town]

Looks like shes further N than expeced by looking at those visibles just posted and IR?
She needs to start a more of a westerly track quick to stay on forecast points.

[Chacor]

Looks like we may have a centre fix soon based on the latest HDOB. Pressures and winds falling off towards the end of the latest HDOB around 17°29’ N 72°00’ W.