ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[WmE]

If this is actually the track, the NHC has been very conservative on strengthening.

Wow, that would be a scary track! 100kts is very conservative if this track verifies.

[storms in NC]

From Wilm NWC
They talking about it being in the Northeast of gulf.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3AM TUE...NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE PATTERN TO SPEAK OF ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH/MS VALLEYS WHILST GUSTAV
EMERGES FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND CROSSES CUBA. EXPECT A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE WARMTH...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AS HIGHS BOTH
DAYS APPROACH 90 AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS PRETTY CLOSE TO 30 BOTH
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS GENERALLY CONFINED TO SEA BREEZE AND ANY
OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT MAY STILL BE KICKIN` AROUND. GFS DEPICTS A
PIEDMONT TROUGH BUT IT STILL SEEMS TO BE TIED IN PART TO FAY
REMNANTS SO NOT SURE IF IT WILL REALLY BE THERE. THIS FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO IF NOT THRU THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOT SURE IF THERES MUCH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT SO IT MAY NOT
BRING A SIG INC IN POPS. TOUGH CALL WHAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CURRENT PROGS HAVE IT TO OUR SOUTH...BEING
PUSHED BY A DEEP CUTOFF LOW E OF NEW ENGLAND AND A TROPICAL
CYCLONE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST GOMEX...LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE
MAPS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS.

[Hurricane Cheese]

If someone posted this eralier, sorry:

From LIX:

LONG TERM...
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY BUT
WITH A DEGREE OF UNEASINESS AS HURRICANE GUSTAV APPEARS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY WAY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF GUSTAV. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE
NEARING THE PEAK OF THE SEASON...WHICH IS SEPTEMBER 10TH. THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SHOWS 10 NAMED STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING
OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE 1851. CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE HIGHEST HEAT CONTENT IS FOUND. AN EDDY
OF VERY WARM WATERS RESIDES AROUND 25N 90W BUT WATER HEAT CONTENT
AND DEPTH REALLY FALL OFF NORTH OF 27N...WHICH MAY WORK IN
SOMEONE`S FAVOR WHEREVER GUSTAV ULTIMATELY TREKS. DEEP LAYERED
WIND PROFILES OVER THE SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN THE CATEGORY 3 RANGE...AND A FEW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY MODELS DO RAMP INTENSITY OF GUSTAV INTO LOW END CATEGORY
5 THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS LEVEL OFF IN THE LOW END
CATEGORY 3...WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SUPPORTS. HOPE THE ADDED
INFORMATION WAS WORTH THE TARDINESS. TIME WILL TELL IF WE MAY BE
FACED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTINY ALONG OUR SHORES. CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRUDENT OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

And the three year anniversary of "the big one" looms...gotta keep watching those models, but with each run I fear a little more for NOLA.

[Javlin]

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE
MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS
MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY
OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE
GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Scarry to even even see intensity forcast like the GFDL and HWRF project for anybody.But,like they said got to see more model runs to get a good handle on the situation.

[sunnyday]

I was relieved to see this morning that SE FL is out of the cone. I hope this misses everyone because it looks like a bad one.

[HURAKAN]

[Portastorm]

JB just updated his blog and believes Florida is "off the hook." He's pretty much in agreement with the consensus of this being a monster Gulf storm and hitting someone west of Florida.

[HURRICANELONNY]

On its present NHC track. Oil will jump today. Gives them a great excuse to raise the price for Labor Day weekend.

[Cryomaniac]

On its present NHC track. Oil will jump today.

Possibly, the oil price fell overnight though.

[tolakram]

Using someone elses tracking module. Not sure if I can remote in from work to update this, might be a flaw in my plan.

[cycloneye]

On its present NHC track. Oil will jump today. Gives them a great excuse to raise the price for Labor Day weekend.

That is offtopic.Go to the off topic forum to this thread and discuss all about that theme there.


viewtopic.php?f=6&t=98808&start=800

[Evil Jeremy]

8 AM:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN HAITI LATER TODAY.

[cycloneye]

To any pro met.Is the ridge building already or not? I ask because Gustav is not making the turn to the left yet.

[dwg71]

Gustav is heading a bit more north than forecast, but nothing to be concerned about yet. I have a feeling the western shift of models will end and they will begin to narrow the target down on central/eastern gulf.

[cheezyWXguy]

Gustav is heading a bit more north than forecast, but nothing to be concerned about yet. I have a feeling the western shift of models will end and they will begin to narrow the target down on central/eastern gulf.

Yeah I dont think the models can shift anymore west than this...NHC looks to be the best path in my opinion.

[mutley]

Gustav is heading a bit more north than forecast, but nothing to be concerned about yet. I have a feeling the western shift of models will end and they will begin to narrow the target down on central/eastern gulf.

That would be my guess at this point, too. Models shifting east a bit would not be out of the question. Isn't there still some doubt about the strength of this ridge over Florida?

[gtsmith]

If you watch the water vapor loop, the dark dry area to the north of Gustav has slowly edged southward over the loop (is that part of the ridge?)...I don't see how Gustav can move much more North against that...the turn may start within the next few hours...

[wxman57]

I wouldn't take Florida "off the hook" just yet, at least not the Panhandle. Models remain split on the ridging over the Gulf this weekend. The ridge is already located north of Gustav. That's why it's slowed down this morning - getting ready for its westerly turn. BIG question is whether or not the weakness in the ridge across the eastern Gulf (as GFS predicts) will materialize and allow Gustav to hook N-NNE toward the FL Panhandle or if the door will swing shut and force Gustav west to the Yucatan and possibly a final landfall in Mexico (my initial track yesterday). I just don't know now. All models do show high pressure remaining over TX/LA early next week, which would seem to rule out a TX/LA landfall. But models have been known to be wrong on their 7 day forecasts in the past.

Confidently, I'd say final landfall somewhere between about Veracruz and Tampa for now, with a spike of higher probabilities toward central/northern MX and another spike toward FL Panhandle.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Confidently, I'd say final landfall somewhere between about Veracruz and Tampa for now

57,that is a supergiant cone there.