ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[gatorcane]

GFS develops it also:

[KWT]

Now things get much more interesting with this system...

GFS is developing this system as well now, still looks like there is a decent weakness for this to lift out of but the shift south does make things that little bit more interesting.

[KWT]

Its interesting this thread is not being payed any attention to, given the ECM has this has a decently strong system hitting east Florida...

[Meso]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080826 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080826 0600 080826 1800 080827 0600 080827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 53.9W 19.7N 55.0W 20.6N 56.1W 21.7N 57.1W
BAMD 19.1N 53.9W 19.1N 54.6W 19.3N 55.4W 19.9N 56.1W
BAMM 19.1N 53.9W 19.4N 54.8W 19.8N 55.7W 20.6N 56.6W
LBAR 19.1N 53.9W 19.2N 54.5W 19.3N 55.7W 19.4N 57.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080828 0600 080829 0600 080830 0600 080831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 58.2W 25.7N 61.2W 28.5N 64.1W 30.5N 65.8W
BAMD 20.8N 57.1W 23.3N 59.7W 26.1N 62.5W 28.7N 64.2W
BAMM 21.5N 57.6W 24.1N 60.5W 26.9N 63.4W 29.4N 65.0W
LBAR 19.9N 58.6W 22.0N 62.7W 25.3N 67.6W 29.4N 70.3W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 73KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 53.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 52.8W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 52.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[karenfromheaven]

The 2600 UTC EURO develops 95L and sends it across Florida into the GOM!!!



At this projected time, Gustov will have just made landfall further west somewhere.

[ericinmia]

I am really interested and have been following (with my limited knowledge) the possible effects that this developing system will have on the basin. Aside from a possible hit on the ec of florida per the euro... The fact that NHC wrote this off, and is tracking the system (95L) to its south east instead... The fact that if Gus is weakened (after Haiti) and this has strengthened and is in the vacinity, what type of interaction would lie ahead?

Should be interesting to watch unfold. I don't have the accuity to forecast anything though, especially because this is becoming so complex... (3 possible storms forming relatively close in the same basin)
-Eric

[tailgater]

The 2600 UTC EURO develops 95L and sends it across Florida into the GOM!!!



At this projected time, Gustov will have just made landfall further west somewhere.

Is this ECMWF or CMC, Man is it active out there or what. 3 storms projected on Sept 5 and Gus has just moved inland.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 261239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080826 1200 080827 0000 080827 1200 080828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 56.0W 20.8N 57.2W 21.4N 58.2W 22.0N 59.3W
BAMD 20.3N 56.0W 20.4N 56.4W 20.9N 57.0W 21.7N 57.7W
BAMM 20.3N 56.0W 20.4N 56.8W 20.8N 57.7W 21.4N 58.6W
LBAR 20.3N 56.0W 21.0N 57.1W 21.5N 58.4W 21.9N 59.7W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080828 1200 080829 1200 080830 1200 080831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 60.5W 24.7N 62.9W 26.6N 65.1W 27.7N 66.3W
BAMD 22.6N 58.7W 25.2N 61.7W 28.0N 64.7W 30.4N 66.5W
BAMM 22.1N 59.7W 24.1N 62.4W 26.2N 64.8W 27.5N 66.1W
LBAR 22.7N 61.3W 24.6N 64.5W 27.5N 67.4W 30.3N 69.5W
SHIP 47KTS 59KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 47KTS 59KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 56.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 18.7N LONM12 = 53.5W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 52.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

GFDL and HWRF both make major hurricanes out of this (the latter bringing this down to 926mb), going either side of Bermuda. May still be a fish though.

[jaxfladude]

Its interesting this thread is not being payed any attention to, given the ECM has this has a decently strong system hitting east Florida...

Ignore it and it'll go away...

[Patrick99]

If this can hang around and "wait" for the ULL to get out of its way, I think it could get interesting. I don't put much stock in the current model runs, as they seem to be notoriously questionable with unnamed systems. I don't see all this supposed NNW movement at all, nor have I seen it for the past several days.

Might be one of those things where if it remains just weak enough, without getting wiped out entirely, conditions could change in a couple days, and there'd be something to see with this system.

[KWT]

i'm pretty sure thats what the ECM does with this system only drifts it NW and then eventually hits favorable conditions and develops into a decent system, may well happen just that way we shall see, looks likely to be a recurver however.

[Windtalker1]

Maybe someone can help me understand here:
We have Gustav around Cuba which is forcasted to move more West in time due to High pressure building in through the Bahamas and Florida..........If that ridge is in Place, how can 95L move north through that ridge?

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

What is that way off the EC, 95L?

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it just me or are some of these models starting to swing back around and point to the west...Maybe 95L is not destined to go fishing after all. Since Gustav has been around 95L has not been getting any love lately. I have to think though that if that ULL gets out of the way, conditions become more favorable, and the models continue to trend west then 95L will get all the love and attention it needs...

I think we are in for a very interesting next 4 to 6 weeks...

SFT

[Scorpion]

The Euro takes it as a significant hurricane into FL.

[KWT]

Wow that makes 95L into a beastly system, the models are indeed shifting westwards it seems, I think this one needs watching...its going to miss its escape route it seems thanks to stay weak, slip under the radar so to speak.

[Steve H.]

The Euro has been intermittently suggesting this for a few days now. Seems like steering currents may collapse in that region, then ridging takes over as wagons go west. Frightful, since it is not totally unrealistic as some models have been hanging 95L up as well.....even the tropicals (BAMs) are beginning to bend west.

[HURAKAN]

022
WHXX04 KWBC 271132
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.9 58.1 295./ 7.0
6 20.7 58.5 239./ 3.9
12 20.9 58.6 326./ 3.2
18 21.1 58.7 339./ 2.2
24 21.0 58.7 172./ 1.4
30 22.0 58.6 5./ 9.6
36 23.1 58.6 1./11.9
42 24.1 59.6 315./13.6
48 25.1 60.9 306./15.3
54 25.7 61.8 303./10.0
60 26.6 62.3 330./10.5
66 27.8 63.1 325./13.3
72 28.6 64.2 309./12.8
78 29.3 64.6 331./ 7.4
84 30.6 65.1 338./14.3
90 31.5 65.2 352./ 8.3
96 32.4 65.3 355./ 9.6
102 33.5 65.1 14./10.4
108 34.5 64.4 32./11.1
114 35.5 63.5 41./12.7
120 36.5 62.5 45./13.2
126 37.9 61.4 40./16.3

[cycloneye]

Moving South!

WHXX01 KWBC 271225
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1225 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080827 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080827 1200 080828 0000 080828 1200 080829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 57.5W 20.4N 58.4W 21.3N 59.5W 22.5N 60.7W
BAMD 19.7N 57.5W 19.8N 57.8W 20.2N 58.4W 21.1N 59.3W
BAMM 19.7N 57.5W 19.9N 58.3W 20.5N 59.2W 21.2N 60.2W
LBAR 19.7N 57.5W 19.7N 57.9W 20.0N 58.7W 20.7N 59.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080829 1200 080830 1200 080831 1200 080901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.6N 62.0W 25.5N 64.8W 26.8N 68.0W 27.2N 70.1W
BAMD 22.1N 60.6W 24.0N 63.6W 25.2N 66.6W 25.7N 67.9W
BAMM 22.1N 61.7W 23.6N 64.4W 24.3N 67.4W 24.3N 69.6W
LBAR 21.9N 61.7W 24.2N 65.9W 26.3N 70.4W 26.6N 73.1W
SHIP 49KTS 62KTS 67KTS 70KTS
DSHP 49KTS 62KTS 67KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 215DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 20.7N LONM12 = 57.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 55.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM