ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So are these models not getting a handle on how strong the ridge will be? Wxman concerned for TX/MeX border or eastern panhandle, and the some of the latest models are showing the north central gulf as target zone.

[dwg71]

So are these models not getting a handle on how strong the ridge will be? Wxman concerned for TX/MeX border or eastern panhandle, and the some of the latest models are showing the north central gulf as target zone.

Though I wont rule out a Mexico hit, but the weakness in the ridge is pretty uniform with most models now. Once it works around the edge of hp it will move nw to n and wxman and I agree that it may hook nne towards the end. I think fl panhandle.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is looking more and more like a Yukatan storm. Even the latest TWO stresses that this may be turning westward and that the track is probably too far right...Perhaps WXMAN was right afterall calling for a Yukatan hit. I wouldn't be suprised if the Gulf of Mexico is out of the track by tonight or tomorrow......Even so, this can be a dangerous hurricane....

I don't see anything in the TWO or TWD that says that. The storm is right of the track at the moment and the models are close to the NHC track.

oops, I didn't mean the latest TWO, I meant the latest discussion

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

It says
"Global models have come into much better agreement that
the hurricane will turn to the west-northwest or even west in a day
or so due to this building ridge. The official forecast has been
adjusted southwestward beyond 24 hr but is still on the northern
edge of the guidance envelope. The forecast could have been
shifted even more to the left but we'd prefer to wait until the
guidance becomes more stable."

[Ed Mahmoud]

This storm has got me very uneasy. Do I think that lightning will strike twice with Gustav and Katrina? No---that is VERY rare for storms to hit at the exact same spot. It could hit anywhere in the GOM. However, you better believe they will evacuate New Orleans real quick. That could be a pretty significant inconvenience. Initial guestimations on my part would be a Texas hit---most models are trending fairly far South. We've got plenty of time to watch.

WxMan57 said high pressure is large and in charge. I'd unofficially guess at worst, a near border Dolly type landfall, although stronger. But I'll keep an eye open, and since I'll be in Austin Saturday and Sunday, if there appears even a remote chance this effects my general part of Texas, I'll do some minor stocking up Friday, just in case I return to a panic Sunday night. I stocked up ahead of Edouard, so I don't need massive provisions, but I have been drinking the bottled water.

Now come on Ed, you dont stock up for a non- threatening hurricane do you? I would have thought different.........

Ed have a wager for you. If it does hit STX or any part of TX LOCK the "Texas season over thread" and never bring it up again......sound good

How would y'all razz me if I was wrong. Anyway, BRO to BPT is a small fraction of the Gulf, and I still expect this will avoid it. Just saying it'd be silly not to take reasonable precautions, as early as possible, to avoid the rush, even when the chances of impact locally are remote. Nothing but the flashlight batteries, which eventually run down, goes to waste.

[canes04]

Someone needs to tell Gus he should be heading West!!
Looks like NNW movement. Nobody in FLA should let there guard down.

[ROCK]

So are these models not getting a handle on how strong the ridge will be? Wxman concerned for TX/MeX border or eastern panhandle, and the some of the latest models are showing the north central gulf as target zone.

Though I wont rule out a Mexico hit, but the weakness in the ridge is pretty uniform with most models now. Once it works around the edge of hp it will move nw to n and wxman and I agree that it may hook nne towards the end. I think fl panhandle.

look at the 06Z runs.....

[Chris_in_Tampa]

This is looking more and more like a Yukatan storm. Even the latest TWO stresses that this may be turning westward and that the track is probably too far right...Perhaps WXMAN was right afterall calling for a Yukatan hit. I wouldn't be suprised if the Gulf of Mexico is out of the track by tonight or tomorrow......Even so, this can be a dangerous hurricane....

I don't see anything in the TWO or TWD that says that. The storm is right of the track at the moment and the models are close to the NHC track.

oops, I didn't mean the latest TWO, I meant the latest discussion

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

It says
"Global models have come into much better agreement that
the hurricane will turn to the west-northwest or even west in a day
or so due to this building ridge. The official forecast has been
adjusted southwestward beyond 24 hr but is still on the northern
edge of the guidance envelope. The forecast could have been
shifted even more to the left but we'd prefer to wait until the
guidance becomes more stable."

Oh, but as usual though, a storm is making things a little more uncertain, as this part in bold of the discussion remained true during recon:

"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE
MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT."

[DESTRUCTION5]

So are these models not getting a handle on how strong the ridge will be? Wxman concerned for TX/MeX border or eastern panhandle, and the some of the latest models are showing the north central gulf as target zone.

Though I wont rule out a Mexico hit, but the weakness in the ridge is pretty uniform with most models now. Once it works around the edge of hp it will move nw to n and wxman and I agree that it may hook nne towards the end. I think fl panhandle.

look at the 06Z runs.....

Why wwhen 1/2 the 12z's are out? and in a pretty good cluster..

[cpdaman]

what is that mass moving SSW around 25/65 or so , may this help Gustav take more of a land route , perhaps 95 L is blocking this mass from moving east

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[ROCK]

Someone needs to tell Gus he should be heading West!!
Looks like NNW movement. Nobody in FLA should let there guard down.

nothing to get alarmed about... it was mentioned in the TWO......

[cheezyWXguy]

How do you all know that the high will be as strong in 6 days as it is now? Is it because the GFS said so? Well, the GFS is only one model, and really hasnt been handling Gustav well at all. I dont know if another NOLA hit is likely, and frankly, I dont care. Its WAYYY too far out and there are too many variables for any of us amateurs to predict. Maybe it will go into Mexico. Im not saying it wont, but Im stressing the point that this is not set in stone.

[Stormcenter]

So are these models not getting a handle on how strong the ridge will be? Wxman concerned for TX/MeX border or eastern panhandle, and the some of the latest models are showing the north central gulf as target zone.

Though I wont rule out a Mexico hit, but the weakness in the ridge is pretty uniform with most models now. Once it works around the edge of hp it will move nw to n and wxman and I agree that it may hook nne towards the end. I think fl panhandle.

look at the 06Z runs.....

They will change again and again....

[Stormcenter]

How do you all know that the high will be as strong in 6 days as it is now? Is it because the GFS said so? Well, the GFS is only one model, and really hasnt been handling Gustav well at all. I dont know if another NOLA hit is likely, and frankly, I dont care. Its WAYYY too far out and there are too many variables for any of us amateurs to predict. Maybe it will go into Mexico. Im not saying it wont, but Im stressing the point that this is not set in stone.

It's way too early to call especially since it's not moving very fast to begin with.

[ROCK]

Though I wont rule out a Mexico hit, but the weakness in the ridge is pretty uniform with most models now. Once it works around the edge of hp it will move nw to n and wxman and I agree that it may hook nne towards the end. I think fl panhandle.[/quote]


look at the 06Z runs..... [/quote]

Why wwhen 1/2 the 12z's are out? and in a pretty good cluster..[/quote]

Maybe you should not just look at the popular models and look outside the box.....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh

[twister]

Good Lord!! Thank goodness I'm prepared. Most is done already. Now the long wait to see what pans out.

[ROCK]

Though I wont rule out a Mexico hit, but the weakness in the ridge is pretty uniform with most models now. Once it works around the edge of hp it will move nw to n and wxman and I agree that it may hook nne towards the end. I think fl panhandle.[/quote]


They will change again and again....[/quote]


yes they will.....got to admit though those 06Z runs look pretty unified for a Yucatan hit in a few days....

[cpdaman]

How do you all know that the high will be as strong in 6 days as it is now? Is it because the GFS said so? Well, the GFS is only one model, and really hasnt been handling Gustav well at all. I dont know if another NOLA hit is likely, and frankly, I dont care. Its WAYYY too far out and there are too many variables for any of us amateurs to predict. Maybe it will go into Mexico. Im not saying it wont, but Im stressing the point that this is not set in stone.

i would be focusing most of my time in the short term track, such as will the ULL dropping SSW to it's north account for any more movement to the right of Nw. haiti will get flooding rains anyhow, and a continued motion NW or just to the right, would put gustav in a weaker position over land, isn't that something to keep our eyes on now.

[Stratosphere747]

Maybe you should not just look at the popular models and look outside the box.....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh

Rock,

The majority of the board will have no idea how to navigate to the correct area you want them to look at...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Stormcenter]

Good Lord!! Thank goodness I'm prepared. Most is done already. Now the long wait to see what pans out.

5-6 days I think but who knows when these things stop
and go all the time.

[xironman]

6 days out I think the GFDL destroys every major city in the CONUS......

But do they do it on August 31st? That's pretty cruel.