ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[BigB0882]

The good thing for N.O. is this far (6 days) out the models (especially GFDL) are rarely correct. Gustav is either going to the left or right of that. If I had to bet $$$ I say to the right.

This was my thought exactly. I rarely see the models get it right at the beginning. However, one thing to note is that the models seem to be really bunched together with just a couple way off. I think they have a good idea of where this is going. There will probably be only slight shifts right or left, IMO. It could shift back and forth and possibly end up right back where they originally had it going. Only time will tell. I live in Baton Rouge and am going to the store on my way home to stock up on supplies. May not end up needing them but I want to get them before the mad dash. If this thing shifts to the left then I am in more trouble.

[ROCK]

why are yall looking at the 12Z runs?


here are the 06z runs:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh

dramatic shift left....now that is a consensus...

[Stormtrack03]

[HouTXmetro]

Not looking good for the Northern Gulf Coast (LA/MS/AL)

[HurricaneRobert]

Why does 95L's run show Gustav making a sharp turn to the NE?

small link

[Agua]

I take comfort in knowing those things will flip all over the place over the next several days. It's likely going to be a terrible storm for someone though. Pray.

Not a met, just an uninformed opinion.

[canegrl04]

Holy Crap Looks like yesterday's GDFL and HWRF models projections are the correct ones. This thing is suppose to be a cat 2 before crossing the tip of Cuba . Somebody along the Gulf coast is getting a nasty hurricane in time for Labor Day

[otowntiger]

Im gonna rest just fine. the only time I havent rested before a hurricane was the day before Cat 4 hurricane Lili was bearing down on Lafayette. Thats because we evacuated north about 100 miles and were stuck at a campground hoping the tornadoes wouldnt make it up that far. they almost did.
Of course, I have to say that its also a bit exciting in a morbid, fascinating kind of way. I have a real passion for tracking these things and how they work and the sheer amount of power they produce. Its amazing how a few clouds in the ocean can spin up into a gigantic monster of a storm capable of leveling the better part of a county or two. Scary but intensely fascinating.

Speaking of Lily, that was one weird storm. It ramped up and was looking awful for the central LA coast, then she almost magically and miraculously faded from a cat 4 down to a cat one just before making landfall. The degradation of the storm was quicker than it's rapid intensification. Let's hope the same thing happens with Gustav. Also, remember Dennis? He did the same thing. Also, as bad as Ivan's storm surge was, his winds dramatically and unexplainably diminished prior to making landfall.

[ROCK]

OK where is everyone getting there 12Zs from.......the only GFDL I can find is 06z, GFS 06z.....

[duris]

I would be very concerned if I lived from Homa to PCB, imo. The models are beginning to have some consensous and that is when it gets scary.

While not wishing this on anyone else, now is when I would like the see that 300 mile shift in consensus Katrina did between Thursday and Friday. Now if only our administration would let us know what triggers the expensive disaster recovery plan we initiated after Katrina. Guess if this still verifies 3 days out, I'll be headed to Memphis. At least I can get some BBQ, and the levees are stronger on my side now.

[TSmith274]

Thank God they built those gates at the lake. But I, for one, see the latest consensus as just a trend. Let's hope that by this evening, they're all aiming west. I wouldn't be surprised.

[dwg71]

I would be very concerned if I lived from Homa to PCB, imo. The models are beginning to have some consensous and that is when it gets scary.

While not wishing this on anyone else, now is when I would like the see that 300 mile shift in consensus Katrina did between Thursday and Friday. Now if only our administration would let us know what triggers the expensive disaster recovery plan we initiated after Katrina. Guess if this still verifies 3 days out, I'll be headed to Memphis. At least I can get some BBQ, and the levees are stronger on my side now.

NOLA residents have carte blanche on wishing hurricanes on others if it spares them

[Stormcenter]

I would be very concerned if I lived from Homa to PCB, imo. The models are beginning to have some consensous and that is when it gets scary.

While not wishing this on anyone else, now is when I would like the see that 300 mile shift in consensus Katrina did between Thursday and Friday. Now if only our administration would let us know what triggers the expensive disaster recovery plan we initiated after Katrina. Guess if this still verifies 3 days out, I'll be headed to Memphis. At least I can get some BBQ, and the levees are stronger on my side now.

In time you may get your wish.

[Stormcenter]

Thank God they built those gates at the lake. But I, for one, see the latest consensus as just a trend. Let's hope that by this evening, they're all aiming west. I wouldn't be surprised.

Or east.

[duris]

I would be very concerned if I lived from Homa to PCB, imo. The models are beginning to have some consensous and that is when it gets scary.

While not wishing this on anyone else, now is when I would like the see that 300 mile shift in consensus Katrina did between Thursday and Friday. Now if only our administration would let us know what triggers the expensive disaster recovery plan we initiated after Katrina. Guess if this still verifies 3 days out, I'll be headed to Memphis. At least I can get some BBQ, and the levees are stronger on my side now.

NOLA residents have carte blanche on wishing hurricanes on others if it spares them

Actually, it's very weird, because now we know what to do and what to (possibly) expect, so it doesn't seem as bad, while others might be less prepared. Nothing you can do but have yourself prepared. We shouldn't have expected the government to be prepared the first time and have no confidence they will be any more prepared this time. Guess that seems pretty negative, but c'est la vie.

[ericinmia]

FSU mm5 has this thing blowing up south of cuba, into what looks to be a very formidable storm. The higher res version of this model is running, but only out to 15hrs... I'll post it when its done also.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.d1-merge.html

[Ivanhater]

Ugh..Hoping to have better news this morning..maybe tonigh models will get away from my area..sorry for any of my fellow gommers, but this one aint no joke

[x-y-no]

OK where is everyone getting there 12Zs from.......the only GFDL I can find is 06z, GFS 06z.....

12Z GFDL won't be out until a couple of hours after the 12Z GFS - in other words approx 2pm eastern time.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"][quote="Stormtrack03"][img]http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/07LSPAG.gif[/img][/quote]

Ugh..Hoping to have better news this morning..maybe tonigh models will get away from my area..sorry for any of my fellow gommers, but this one aint no joke [/quote]


Hey Ivan...even though it is far too early to say with any amount of certainty but IMO this is going to be a W GOM problem...if that ridge stays as strong as some of the models suggest then we should be "good to go" here in the Panhandle...now if it trends over towards NO or MS then Pensacola will most definitely be affected but as of right now, it's looking pretty good for points east Pensacola

[Weatherfreak14]

From what i learned from Fay models can only give you somewhat accurate short term preditions. I think we willl see this go into the GOM but the biggest threat still is from MX all ther way to FL. But i think we will have a better idea what region on the gulf coast about 3 to 5 days from now.