ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[BigB0882]

I feel pretty confident it will be northwest of the western tip of Cuba at some point. Aftere that is when things will get interesting.

[Sjones]

Ugh..Hoping to have better news this morning..maybe tonigh models will get away from my area..sorry for any of my fellow gommers, but this one aint no joke

What model is in your area Ivan? Please explain.

[Ivanhater]

Ugh..Hoping to have better news this morning..maybe tonigh models will get away from my area..sorry for any of my fellow gommers, but this one aint no joke

What model is in your area Ivan? Please explain.

The cluster..north gulf coast

[cajungal]

Don't know that is a pretty tight cluster of the models. Doesn't make me feel very comforted here in SE Louisiana. We have become pretty complacent here. I wasn't directly affected by Katrina. I live 60 miles Southwest of New Orleans, so she missed us to our east. We had no power for 5 days and trees down, but nothing major compared to New Orleans and the MS gulf coast. We missed Rita 200 miles to our west even though she still caused severe flooding in the southern part of my parish of Terrebonne. I know the models will probably change. but this one has made me really nervous for the first time since Katrina.

[sunny]

Don't know that is a pretty tight cluster of the models. Doesn't make me feel very comforted here in SE Louisiana. We have become pretty complacent here. I wasn't directly affected by Katrina. I live 60 miles Southwest of New Orleans, so she missed us to our east. We had no power for 5 days and trees down, but nothing major compared to New Orleans and the MS gulf coast. We missed Rita 200 miles to our west even though she still caused severe flooding in the southern part of my parish of Terrebonne. I know the models will probably change. but this one has made me really nervous for the first time since Katrina.

They are going to have to dump Valium in the water system down here if the trend keeps up. No one in NOLA is complacent, at least not the people I know!

[njweather]

Looks like Gustav will get a chance to feast on the Gulf Loop Current:




Frightening...


This post is my opinion. I'm neither a met nor a student of meteorology.

[cajungal]

Don't know that is a pretty tight cluster of the models. Doesn't make me feel very comforted here in SE Louisiana. We have become pretty complacent here. I wasn't directly affected by Katrina. I live 60 miles Southwest of New Orleans, so she missed us to our east. We had no power for 5 days and trees down, but nothing major compared to New Orleans and the MS gulf coast. We missed Rita 200 miles to our west even though she still caused severe flooding in the southern part of my parish of Terrebonne. I know the models will probably change. but this one has made me really nervous for the first time since Katrina.

They are going to have to dump Valium in the water system down here if the trend keeps up. No one in NOLA is complacent, at least not the people I know!

I was mainly referring to the people of Houma-Thibodaux area not New Orleans. They think we will never get hit. And Houma has a magic shield over it. Most of the people I talked to say they will never leave. Most are down the bayou people who refuse to leave their homes no matter what.

[Stormcenter]

I would be worried if this was 2 days out but not 5-6 days out.
It will more then likely change so don't take any drugs just yet.

[BigB0882]

I would be worried if this was 2 days out but not 5-6 days out.
It will more then likely change so don't take any drugs just yet.

Way to ruin our fun!

[duris]

I was mainly referring to the people of Houma-Thibodaux area not New Orleans. They think we will never get hit. And Houma has a magic shield over it. Most of the people I talked to say they will never leave. Most are down the bayou people who refuse to leave their homes no matter what.

Yep, my brother-in-law is in Montegut. Only reason he would leave is to watch over his business on the river. He's building a big house that isn't that elevated and thinks water won't ever be a problem when it seems to me the Gulf is now practically at his back door.

[Steve]

>>What part of LA are you thinking landfall might be? W/LA, C/LA, or SE/LA? Where can I go see this GFDL model I'm reading so much about? The models on Weather Underground seem to be going all over the place.

Not thinking it's going to be anywhere in Louisiana yet - was just commenting on the HWRF and GFDL runs from 00z and made a "in case they verify" post about them.

>>I was mainly referring to the people of Houma-Thibodaux area not New Orleans. They think we will never get hit. And Houma has a magic shield over it. Most of the people I talked to say they will never leave. Most are down the bayou people who refuse to leave their homes no matter what.

Yeah, I know it well. I live between Raceland and Cut Off and you wouldn't believe the complacency with the Cajuns (obviously you would so that was maybe not the best choice of words). My brother in law doesn't even have flood insurance because, "Mais, if it floods here naig, everything else is going be gone too yeah." Well okay, they haven't paid since Juan (85) where we live and Andrew (92) further west so theres going to be some natural complacency. But that's a stubborn breed of people. And the Down the Bayou types (say from Galliano/Golden Meadow/Leeville south in Lafourche and all of South Terrebonne - Dulac, Montegut, Cocodrie {much of that area did take some water from Rita and also from Lili}) are super stubborn anyway. They'll give you the shirt off their backs, but trying to talk some common sense into them - eh, not so much.

To keep it on topic, model consensus is pretty scary. Glad it's only Tuesday. Not sure why the models suddenly are building a monster ridge. ECMWF - as noted above - actually does a blowback with 95L similar to what happened with Fay. If that happens, high pressure in the western Atlantic will see to it that the 2008 hurricane season stays around for a while.

Steve

[HouTXmetro]

[Portastorm]

I do not like that UKMET run. I do not!

[Frank2]

Too bad the NHC didn't mention the CLIPER solution that brings Gustav NNW across the Bahamas...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Just a thought...

P.S. If there are meteorologists here at the moment, I'd like to know your thoughts on my comment...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

What affect will 95L have on the ridge if it goes into east coast Florida like some of the models are saying? How can it do that if supposedly a monster ridge is over the state?

Will 95L bumping up against the SE side of the ridge cause the Gustav side to strengthen or weaken?

And what about that front that is progged to be across the northern gulf coast/northern florida within 6-7 days? Won't it coming down affect the direction of Gustav too?

Very interesting forecast possible...many variables.... yet the models all seem very clustered and sure of themselves. Do they have all the proper input? I find it hard to believe with all these "x-factors" that they are in such relative agreement.

We'll see where they stand by tomorrow night. I think when some upper air data gets in them, i.e. ridge strengths, 95L impact, dipping trough, etc. we'll see them start reconsidering other possibilities as well.

maybe we'll be lucky though and they will remain tightly clustered and correct....at least that will enable those who will be impacted the most time and focus to get ready.

[Praxus]

Too bad the NHC didn't mention the CLIPER solution that brings Gustav NNW across the Bahamas...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

CLIPER isn't worth mentioning

[DESTRUCTION5]

Too bad the NHC didn't mention the CLIPER solution that brings Gustav NNW across the Bahamas...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Just a thought...

P.S. If there are meteorologists here at the moment, I'd like to know your thoughts on my comment...

Frank..Tell me you did not just go to the Clipper to make you feel better..LOL

[Frank2]

No, I mentioned it because it was considered (when I was the person plotting the computes for the NHC) to be one of the more reliable models (it's been around since the '70s) - true, it's based on climatology, but, perhaps it picked up some pressure falls that the others didn't, and, considering Gustav's a bit to the right of the NHC track, perhaps there is something to that...

We shall see - si?

Frank

[Derek Ortt]

The dynamical models are far improved in the last 20 years

the CLIPER was not mentioned because it now is the baseline for measuring skill. If you cannot beat the CLIPER, it means your forecasts have zero (or negative) skill

[ericinmia]

No, I mentioned it because it was considered (when I was the person plotting the computes for the NHC) to be one of the more reliable models (it's been around since the '70s) - true, it's based on climatology, but, perhaps it picked up some pressure falls that the others didn't, and, considering Gustav's a bit to the right of the NHC track, perhaps there is something to that...

We shall see - si?

Frank

I believe...

That the Clipper is soley: "climatology and persistence" and takes no environmental conditions into account. Only initial cords.
-Eric