ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

Indeed a major hurricane Gustav in the GOM is FAR from certain at this point, despite many posts I am seeing on the possibility. Gustav may take a path through more land interaction that would seriously weaken him or keep him in check.

But it IS the official NHC forcast.

Yes it is! And while it may not be certian, to say "FAR from certain" is a bit of a stretch for sure.

[HURAKAN]

Fay appears to be moving NW still and looks like it is going to make landfall in Haiti. I don't see any evidence of a west turn just yet.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I think Fay has been too much for you!!! GUSTAV is here now!!!

[gatorcane]

Gustav, typo

[Stratosphere747]

Fay appears to be moving NW still and looks like it is going to make landfall in Haiti. Lets hope Haiti fairs out okay and let our thoughts be with them. I don't see any evidence of a west turn just yet.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Why do you use a loop that has such a long interval time to try and show a directional heading?

[rockyman]

Geez, what a tiny little hurricane. Reminds me of Cyclone Tracy...though Tracy was about half the size of Gustav.

Let's hope it stays small. Unfortunately, GFDL shows it getting quite large in the Gulf:

[x-y-no]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not at all convince this thing moves west as fast as forecast. There's clearly ridging building in north of it, so it can't keep progressing NW much longer (although it appears to be right of the forecast track still).

But this morning's 12z sounding in Kingston, Jamaica had a 500mb height of 5810m so it sure looks to me like that ridge is wrapped down to the west of the storm too. That's a recipe for slow progress in my experience.

I'd appreciate any input as to why I'm crazy here.

[gatorcane]

Agreed and notice the heights along the SE Coast of Florida and Bahamas. They are not too impressive.

I'm not convinced that it is going to move so far west as well so quickly and some painfully slow movement of GUSTAV may ensue over the next couple of days.

now let the board rip me again

[dwg71]

Gustav seems to be feeling the effects of DR. It appears very close to landfall,pretty far east of NHC point.

[cpdaman]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not at all convince this thing moves west as fast as forecast. There's clearly ridging building in north of it, so it can't keep progressing NW much longer (although it appears to be right of the forecast track still).

But this morning's 12z sounding in Kingston, Jamaica had a 500mb height of 5810m so it sure looks to me like that ridge is wrapped down to the west of the storm too. That's a recipe for slow progress in my experience.


I'd appreciate any input as to why I'm crazy here.

well if it doesn't move west as fast i would look for increasing Northerly and NW shear from the ULL to it's NE dropping SSW

but nobody seems to talk about the "now" of the forecast, and yes i understand the future concern but geez

[DESTRUCTION5]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not at all convince this thing moves west as fast as forecast. There's clearly ridging building in north of it, so it can't keep progressing NW much longer (although it appears to be right of the forecast track still).

But this morning's 12z sounding in Kingston, Jamaica had a 500mb height of 5810m so it sure looks to me like that ridge is wrapped down to the west of the storm too. That's a recipe for slow progress in my experience.

I'd appreciate any input as to why I'm crazy here.

Im with ya...Timing is everything and its never right 5 days out..

[x-y-no]

12Z sounding, Kingston:



500mb height 5810, wind direction NE which implies the ridge axis somewhere NW of Jamaica.

[lrak]

Just looking at the satellite loop its starting its western movement IMO. Almost looks like it "bounced" off Haiti.

[dwg71]

Just looking at the satellite loop its starting its western movement IMO. Almost looks like it "bounced" off Haiti.

Not sure what you are seeing, its been moving NNW for a few hours now.

[BigB0882]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not at all convince this thing moves west as fast as forecast. There's clearly ridging building in north of it, so it can't keep progressing NW much longer (although it appears to be right of the forecast track still).

But this morning's 12z sounding in Kingston, Jamaica had a 500mb height of 5810m so it sure looks to me like that ridge is wrapped down to the west of the storm too. That's a recipe for slow progress in my experience.

I'd appreciate any input as to why I'm crazy here.

What do you think this would mean in the long term? A track into Florida? Or at least a heading towards Louisiana or east of Louisiana?

[TSmith274]

I'm just remembering that models nailing a forecast this far out is RARE. Katrina people... try to relax if you can. There's time for things to change.

[x-y-no]

Im with ya...Timing is everything and its never right 5 days out..

I'm really talking right now and the next day or so - which of course affects the longer range. I do think it'll move west, I just don't see it being as fast as forecast. What that does to the long range track I don't know.

[Stormcenter]

Folks as someone else posted this is a VERY VERY small storm and it will not affect a large area unless is grows in size. I don't think that will happen. If it were to somehow drift and stall over Haiti I don't think it would survive.

[Over my head]

Gustav, typo

That's OK...even the PRO MET's make that mistake...



"Fay will likely become a hurricane tomorrow morning before making its first landfall in Haiti. "

From Derek's blog...
http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... fe.pnj.com

[cpdaman]

Folks as someone else posted this is a VERY VERY small storm and it will not affect a large area unless is grows in size. I don't think that will happen. If it were to somehow drift and stall over Haiti I don't think it would survive.

or cuba

a south path with little land interaction would create a BOMB IMO

but a north track could mean death of lil gustav by land IMO

[HURAKAN]

The eye is becoming more visible.