ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Frank2]

That's interesting, Derek - hopefully that doesn't speak of mine!!!

Thanks, ericinmiami - true enough...

P.S. Let's hope the NHC is having a bad forecasting skill day and CLIPER is correct - personally, I'd prefer to be wrong, if for a good outcome...

P.P.S. And, it's hopefully not even for us here in South Florida, but, you can't be folks in TX and LA are uneasy about this, for sure...

[Frank2]

Interesting that none of the models have picked up on the ULL dropping SW towards Gustav (it's already impinging on it's northern outflow):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Steve]

>>Interesting that none of the models have picked up on the ULL dropping SW towards Gustav (it's already impinging on it's northern outflow):

That's a ventilation quadrant (NE).

Steve

[Frank2]

Aside from the ULL, the NE flow seems like a TUTT-type feature - sort of...

[GTStorm]

Too bad the NHC didn't mention the CLIPER solution that brings Gustav NNW across the Bahamas...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Just a thought...

P.S. If there are meteorologists here at the moment, I'd like to know your thoughts on my comment...

Not a met, but....the clipper "solution" for Fay was consistently 90 degrees or so to the model consensus, especially after the models began predicting the WNW movement. Seems to be doing the same thing with Gustav.

I tried to Google a discussion on this model but came up empty. Maybe someone else can post a good link?

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS finally on board (loses, sees it, loses it, sees it)

138

[KWT]

Yeah clearly the GFS is just not going to ever see this system correctly however it does suggest the synoptics will allow this system to bend towards the NW before the Yucatan.

[dwg71]

Seems to be coming together for a major central (maybe east central) gulf event. IMO. Time will tell.... back to wobble watching.

[Stormcenter]

Why is it when I look at this satellite loop something tells me
Gustav is not going follow the NHC's projected track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS loses it again....156

[Stormcenter]

GFS loses it again....156

Maybe it just goes POOF.

[Nederlander]

Why is it when I look at this satellite loop something tells me
Gustav is not going follow the NHC's projected track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

what do you see that suggests that?

[ColdFusion]

Why is it when I look at this satellite loop something tells me
Gustav is not going follow the NHC's projected track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Maybe watch the VIS loop instead?

[canegrl04]

Why is it when I look at this satellite loop something tells me
Gustav is not going follow the NHC's projected track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

NHC has a good record for projected tracks especially 48-72 hours out. Interesting side note,should Gustav enter the Gulf,threatening the coastal states as a major cane,the timing couldn't be worse for the Repub. National Convention.I'm betting Gustav will be the one taking center stage

[Bolebuns]

Why is it when I look at this satellite loop something tells me
Gustav is not going follow the NHC's projected track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

NHC has a good record for projected tracks especially 48-72 hours out. Interesting side note,should Gustav enter the Gulf,threatening the coastal states as a major cane,the timing couldn't be worse for the Repub. National Convention.I'm betting Gustav will be the one taking center stage

So, Gustav is a Democrat!? Does this mean that he will have a hard time getting organized and will self destruct before he hits the coast?

[KWT]

The GFDL should be out very soon, this will be a very interesting given what the last few runs have suggested.

[Frank2]

True, but, the GFDL had a hard time with Fay, so, you never know...

Frank

[haml8]

So, Gustav is a Democrat!? Does this mean that he will have a hard time getting organized and will self destruct before he hits the coast? [/quote]

Spit, cough.. coke through nose.... that was FUNNY!!!

[Wx_Warrior]

What's funny is that some have said GFDL nailed Fay....I'm waiting for Gustavo Mendoza to come to the GOM before I starting getting concerned. I've seen too many systems make too many models bomb out.

[Wx_Warrior]