ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL:Thru Yucatan Channel and ends just South of New Orleans.

WHXX04 KWBC 261729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.6 72.2 325./ 8.0
6 18.3 72.7 326./ 8.6
12 19.0 73.6 310./10.8
18 19.0 74.3 268./ 7.1
24 19.0 75.1 268./ 7.0
30 19.0 75.7 266./ 6.5
36 19.1 76.2 286./ 4.7
42 19.3 77.2 284./ 9.2
48 19.1 77.8 252./ 6.6
54 19.3 78.6 284./ 7.8
60 19.3 79.5 268./ 8.6
66 19.4 80.2 277./ 6.5
72 19.8 81.1 298./ 9.0
78 20.2 82.0 294./10.3
84 21.0 82.8 315./10.5
90 21.9 84.0 305./14.4
96 22.8 85.1 310./13.6
102 23.8 86.2 312./14.1
108 24.8 87.3 314./14.2
114 25.9 88.5 313./15.2
120 27.0 89.7 312./15.6
126 28.0 90.9 310./14.3

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez...that's a NOLA direct hit.

If it wasn't accuweather i'd REALLY be worried! (just kidding...lol)

[dwg71]

GFDL - Central LA...

[haml8]

Is it just me or does that cone get bigger and bigger???

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET ends east of Corpus Christi.


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2008



HURRICANE GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 72.2W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.08.2008 17.4N 72.2W MODERATE

00UTC 27.08.2008 17.8N 72.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.08.2008 18.4N 74.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.08.2008 18.9N 73.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.08.2008 19.2N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2008 18.9N 77.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2008 19.6N 78.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 20.4N 81.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 21.6N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2008 22.7N 86.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 23.8N 89.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.8N 91.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 25.9N 93.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL - Central LA...

And its still lit up like a x-mas tree...

[HouTXmetro]

WTH is wrong with Accuweather. Their cone encompasses the entire Guld and BOC.

[dwg71]

12z UKMET ends east of Corpus Christi.


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2008



HURRICANE GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 72.2W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.08.2008 17.4N 72.2W MODERATE

00UTC 27.08.2008 17.8N 72.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.08.2008 18.4N 74.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.08.2008 18.9N 73.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.08.2008 19.2N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2008 18.9N 77.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2008 19.6N 78.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 20.4N 81.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 21.6N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2008 22.7N 86.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 23.8N 89.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.8N 91.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 25.9N 93.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

I believe that is a big shift North from prior run...

[canegrl04]

12z GFDL:Thru Yucatan Channel and ends just South of New Orleans.

WHXX04 KWBC 261729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.6 72.2 325./ 8.0
6 18.3 72.7 326./ 8.6
12 19.0 73.6 310./10.8
18 19.0 74.3 268./ 7.1
24 19.0 75.1 268./ 7.0
30 19.0 75.7 266./ 6.5
36 19.1 76.2 286./ 4.7
42 19.3 77.2 284./ 9.2
48 19.1 77.8 252./ 6.6
54 19.3 78.6 284./ 7.8
60 19.3 79.5 268./ 8.6
66 19.4 80.2 277./ 6.5
72 19.8 81.1 298./ 9.0
78 20.2 82.0 294./10.3
84 21.0 82.8 315./10.5
90 21.9 84.0 305./14.4
96 22.8 85.1 310./13.6
102 23.8 86.2 312./14.1
108 24.8 87.3 314./14.2
114 25.9 88.5 313./15.2
120 27.0 89.7 312./15.6
126 28.0 90.9 310./14.3

I would worry.GDFL yesterday was the first model to take Gustav south of Cuba.Its the one the NHC relies on the most

[Wx_Warrior]

[Brent]

Quite a shift from yesterday's Miami hit.

[Meso]

Holy S***

[cycloneye]

I believe that is a big shift North from prior run...

Yes,UKMET was all Mexico at 00z but now at 12z shifts north.

[HouTXmetro]

Are my eyes fooling me or are the models showing a slight Westward bend as the approach the Central Gulf. I thought the High should be weakening and the storm should be moving NW/N near the end.

[Brent]

Holy S***

and Gustav looks the weakest of the 5.

[ColdFusion]

Quite a shift from yesterday's Miami hit.

...and a Tuesday PM landfall, a WEEK away. Be shocked to see if anyone nails the approx landfall this far out.

[Stormcenter]

Some the models have shifted westward. A good sign for SE LA, and bad sign for Texas.

[KWT]

UKMO indeed has shifted way north of its previous track, now it to also decides totake this through the Yucatan channel.

models coming into increasingly good agreement on the eventuaal track of Gustav and this time looks like it could become a real player for the states.

I'm going to be very interested to see what the GFDL shows in terms of strength this run.

[Sabanic]

Someone from Texas to FL/Panhandle is going to have a bad Post-Labor day unfortunately

[Stormcenter]

Holy S***

and Gustav looks the weakest of the 5.

Gustav is a SMALL storm so nothing would shock me.