ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

And I have a pretty good feeling that this wont be the last of the model shift 7 days out!

[HouTXmetro]

UKMO indeed has shifted way north of its previous track, now it to also decides totake this through the Yucatan channel.

models coming into increasingly good agreement on the eventuaal track of Gustav and this time looks like it could become a real player for the states.

I'm going to be very interested to see what the GFDL shows in terms of strength this run.

Somebody said the latest GFDL shoe Central LA....

The latest batch of models appears to show an increasing threat to the West (Louisiana to Mexico.

[dwg71]

Some the models have shifted westward. A good sign for SE LA, and bad sign for Texas.

i would still think that SE to Central LA would be the target at this point. The UKMET just jumped 500 miles north, lets see what the trend is. GFS has steering currents that would lead more to the Central gulf. Wait and see.

[HouTXmetro]

Some the models have shifted westward. A good sign for SE LA, and bad sign for Texas.

i would still think that SE to Central LA would be the target at this point. The UKMET just jumped 500 miles north, lets see what the trend is. GFS has steering currents that would lead more to the Central gulf. Wait and see.

I'm still leaning towards New Orleans to Pensecola area.\

NOT OFFICIAL

[Stormcenter]

Some the models have shifted westward. A good sign for SE LA, and bad sign for Texas.

i would still think that SE to Central LA would be the target at this point. The UKMET just jumped 500 miles north, lets see what the trend is. GFS has steering currents that would lead more to the Central gulf. Wait and see.

Are you looking at the same models as I am? Look at the trend of the models. They point toward SW LA. & TX. Anyway as someone point out already these will switch back and forth some more. I think EVERYONE in the GOM should keep an eye out for this one. It will be small but intense.

[Stormcenter]

Some the models have shifted westward. A good sign for SE LA, and bad sign for Texas.

i would still think that SE to Central LA would be the target at this point. The UKMET just jumped 500 miles north, lets see what the trend is. GFS has steering currents that would lead more to the Central gulf. Wait and see.

I'm still leaning towards New Orleans to Pensecola area.\

NOT OFFICIAL

Do you want bet a penny on that?

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF animation shows track thru Yucatan Channel ending in Central GOM as a cat 2.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL intensity.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[shah8]

hwrf has Gustav nailed by Cuba for a bit, which is why the no Cat 5 repeat.

[CrazyC83]

For all we know, the mountains could eat Gustav apart.

[HouTXmetro]

Do you want bet a penny on that?

Only if you are willing to take my Cone of uncertainty. Morgan City, Louisiana to Mobile, Alabama. That's a slight shift west.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I cant help but notice the Huge timing difference between the HWRF and GFDL.the HWRF being WAY slower..

[MGC]

I've been out and about all day. Earlier I got a call from my sister-in-law whom works for the Navy out at Stennis Space Center. The Navy has a Cray super computer where some of the model runs are done. She knows plenty of the Navy mets. Anyway, she told me that her Navy friends told her that 4 reliable models (didn't say which ones) had Gus as a Cat-5 off the mouth of the Mississippi. Now I know the models will change many times over the next few days. But Gus is causing some concern here......MGC

[Stormcenter]

I cant help but notice the Huge timing difference between the HWRF and GFDL.the HWRF being WAY slower..

It makes you wonder if the GDFL is being influenced by a trough of some sort
and is accelerating. Who knows?

[Stormcenter]

I've been out and about all day. Earlier I got a call from my sister-in-law whom works for the Navy out at Stennis Space Center. The Navy has a Cray super computer where some of the model runs are done. She knows plenty of the Navy mets. Anyway, she told me that her Navy friends told her that 4 reliable models (didn't say which ones) had Gus as a Cat-5 off the mouth of the Mississippi. Now I know the models will change many times over the next few days. But Gus is causing some concern here......MGC

That was probably before these lastest model runs.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I cant help but notice the Huge timing difference between the HWRF and GFDL.the HWRF being WAY slower..

It makes you wonder if the GDFL is being influenced by a trough of some sort
and is accelerating. Who knows?

Im thinking it is picking up what X-Y-No was discussing and it may have a little GFS in it..

[KWT]

Yep the HWRF tears Gustav's inner core apart thanks to the land interaction, however its a bit further north then pretty much all the models, however its still close enough to the consensus that any such track is quite possible.

GFDL once agains makes this a beastly strong hurricane, landfall on western Cuba at 931mbs, ouch!

[Steve]

>>So, Gustav is a Democrat!? Does this mean that he will have a hard time getting organized and will self destruct before he hits the coast?

Most likely. But with guys like Chertoff around to make sure everything runs smoothly, I don't think anyone is worried.

>>The Navy has a Cray super computer where some of the model runs are done. She knows plenty of the Navy mets. Anyway, she told me that her Navy friends told her that 4 reliable models (didn't say which ones) had Gus as a Cat-5 off the mouth of the Mississippi. Now I know the models will change many times over the next few days.

Would have sought some verification. You know how rumors run rampant especially now that "4 models" have a "Cat 5" off the Mouth of the Mississippi.

>>Somebody said the latest GFDL shoe Central LA....

Oddly enough, it doesn't have Gustav fading at landfall. Possible hint at a WNW landfall up that way. Storms don't hit SW LA from the ESE bending further west - none that I know of anyway. They either come in from the SE/S/SSE.

Who knows?

Steve

[PTrackerLA]

I just choked on my subway sandwich, GFDL needs to stop!

[Dean4Storms]

Some the models have shifted westward. A good sign for SE LA, and bad sign for Texas.

i would still think that SE to Central LA would be the target at this point. The UKMET just jumped 500 miles north, lets see what the trend is. GFS has steering currents that would lead more to the Central gulf. Wait and see.

I'm still leaning towards New Orleans to Pensecola area.\

NOT OFFICIAL

Well stop leaning, it is bad for your posture.

We need this storm to head toward Mexico.