ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Agua]

I've been out and about all day. Earlier I got a call from my sister-in-law whom works for the Navy out at Stennis Space Center. The Navy has a Cray super computer where some of the model runs are done. She knows plenty of the Navy mets. Anyway, she told me that her Navy friends told her that 4 reliable models (didn't say which ones) had Gus as a Cat-5 off the mouth of the Mississippi. Now I know the models will change many times over the next few days. But Gus is causing some concern here......MGC

Only IBMs and Linux right now (or maybe the use of another agency's system), and Gustav has delayed the delivery of the Cray

Hmmm... maybe it was only 2 not so reliable models with a thunderstorm parked off Sabine Pass? j/k

[N2Storms]

[quote="vaffie"]It looks like some of the disparity between model runs is converging on the NHC's path. WRF and GFDL model tracks have moved significantly westward, UKMET and European have moved significantly eastward. The NOGAPS is still bizarrely northerly, the GFS still doesn't have the resolution to see it. This is definitely the most consensus we've seen for Gustav so far. A track towards Texas/Louisiana looks very likely at this point, but that may well change.[/quote]



I prefer to watch the NHC...they have a history of being much more accurate than this board...just watch their Proj. Path...they seem know what they are doing...

[vaffie]

I prefer to watch the NHC...they have a history of being much more accurate than this board...just watch their Proj. Path...they seem know what they are doing...

I completely agree. They have an awesome track record. They partly use the models to make their predictions, and so I watch the model runs to get an idea of how they will shift their projections, and when the models become more consistent like they are, it gives the NHC's forecast path higher confidence, and when it is aimed at a point within a couple hundred miles of you, you tend to pay attention...

[Steve]

>>I prefer to watch the NHC...they have a history of being much more accurate than this board...just watch their Proj. Path...they seem know what they are doing...

Yet you are, yes, here. So you put some stock into it. Thing with the NHC/TPC is that they only change their tracks up a little. So that when you run the snake, you don't really see that extreme of a change from track to track. They smooth around it. And since they update every few hours, over time it might appear that they were closer on than otherwise. HOWEVER, I think they are the best in the business and have only gotten better since late August 2005 when we got 60ish hours notification that the track into the Panhandle simply wasn't going to verify. I think their 2006, 2007 and 2008 has been as good as can be expected. There will be hiccups, but mostly they are damn good.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z EURO:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082612!!/

Where is Ed? Bring me Ed Mahmoud right now! He told me for us in Texas it was "season over."

Ed, the 12z Euro says: "I spit on Ed Mahmoud."

Derek Ortt lines bird cages and litter boxes with the Yurpian model, and he doesn't even have pets!

[N2Storms]

[quote="Steve"]>>I prefer to watch the NHC...they have a history of being much more accurate than this board...just watch their Proj. Path...they seem know what they are doing...

Yet you are, yes, here. So you put some stock into it. Thing with the NHC/TPC is that they only change their tracks up a little. So that when you run the snake, you don't really see that extreme of a change from track to track. They smooth around it. And since they update every few hours, over time it might appear that they were closer on than otherwise. HOWEVER, I think they are the best in the business and have only gotten better since late August 2005 when we got 60ish hours notification that the track into the Panhandle simply wasn't going to verify. I think their 2006, 2007 and 2008 has been as good as can be expected. There will be hiccups, but mostly they are damn good.

Steve[/quote]


Yes, I am here...and I wasn't trying to completely dismiss the use of the models, but so many people here tend to live or die with every new model run...it is emotionally taxing and it isn't worth it...I'm fully aware of how the NHC treats these models and incorporates them into their forecasts...I was merely trying to point out that it is advisable not to agonize over every single run of the models

[Portastorm]

12z EURO:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082612!!/

Where is Ed? Bring me Ed Mahmoud right now! He told me for us in Texas it was "season over."

Ed, the 12z Euro says: "I spit on Ed Mahmoud."

Derek Ortt lines bird cages and litter boxes with the Yurpian model, and he doesn't even have pets!

Alright Ed ... I'll ease up on ya. That's a pretty funny line!

[haml8]

Time to break out Dr. Neil Frank and enable the Houston Hurricane Shield!!! ENSIGN ENGAGE!!!

[Steve]

>>I was merely trying to point out that it is advisable not to agonize over every single run of the models

Agree with that. However, the ones that want to put a Cat 4 on you so soon since the last 2/3/4 (depending), at least in my case, are somewhat cause for alarm. But ultimately I don't live and die on every run of every model or every wobble of every eye, center of circulation or eye-like feature. Definitely been taught to follow the trends. Thing that gets me is when posters who just discounted a run on model x the day before are all over it when it switches to them. I guess it's just the nature of the beast.

Steve

[HouTXmetro]

This things is days away from even stepping foot into the Gulf. I'm not worried about yet.

[Pearl River]

Time to dust off poor old Nash Roberts and his erasable marker board.

[HouTXmetro]

What is the NGFDL? It's track is similar to the NOGAPS wich heads towards te Panhandle.

[x-y-no]

What is the NGFDL? It's track is similar to the NOGAPS wich heads towards te Panhandle.

NGFDL is the GFDL but run on the NOGAPS grid background.

[KWT]

GFDL but based on Nogaps data rather then the GFS data, hence why its similar to the nogaps run.

[3ABirdMan]

GFDL but based on Nogaps data rather then the GFS data, hence why its similar to the nogaps run.

A key point for evryone to remember - garbage IN , garbage OUT!

Not to say that the NOGAPS is garbage, by any means, but if there is anything skewed in the NOGAPS data, and you use it to initialize another model, your output from the new model will be skewed as well.

TREND is the key word (away from SETX hopefully lol)!

[xironman]

I was merely trying to point out that it is advisable not to agonize over every single run of the models

People are here because they are hurricane fans. That would be like asking a baseball fan not to agonize over the next pitch. Back to Gustav.

[Noles2006]

I was merely trying to point out that it is advisable not to agonize over every single run of the models

People are here because they are hurricane fans. That would be like asking a baseball fan not to agonize over the next pitch. Back to Gustav.

I am definitely not a fan of the hurricanes.

Go 'Noles!

But, you're right... every little detail of this storm is going to be analyzed and talked about on this board...

[TSmith274]

Someone please post the NHC 5pm cone. My computer is acting up.

[canegrl04]

Stick with the NHC projected track.They are very good.I doubt any deviation from it over the next 2 or 3 days

[gboudx]

Someone please post the NHC 5pm cone. My computer is acting up.

Cycloneye posted it in the other thread.