ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

I say a shift westward slightly.

[Mattie]

Couple of interesting links dealing with historical tracks of storms in a position where Gus is right now.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... 41471.html - Big Map of Tracks

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ry_te.html - Houston Chronicle's Sci-Guy Discussing Historical Tracks

I'm kind of thinking that given models, motion trends, etc. that NOLA might end up being on the eastern side of the eventual landfall cone and that the Houston/Galveston area might be the bulls-eye.

As for 5 p.m. change, perhaps a little more to the left, but not much.

I can't see where you can pinpoint anything with the spaghetti models for this. Would be interested to hear the theory of how the consensus comes together after seeing that!

[TCmet]

Yeah thats a big difference Derek, this is a hurricane, Fay was just about a TS at this time, plus the ground is already very wet from Fay.
Just hope no one has to make that call this time round Derek!

As has been said it hit a fairly dense part of the island, the Ne eyewall was probably giving 90-95mph gusts in that region near landfall I'd guess as well?

rain and slides will be the biggest threat. but wind will knock down trees... in mitch (honduras 1998) huge temporary dams/lakes spontaneously formed because of felled trees clogging up rivers - which added to the flooding.

I don't believe there are many trees to knock down in Haiti. Most were either cut down or burned

The winds may do a number on the shanty towns though in Haiti

the deforestation/erosion will actually exacerbate the few remaining trees to be more vulnerable in storms. garbage/plastic bags is also a big problem in riverbeds... clogging things up. many developing countries use plastic bags as the primary method of distributing potable water. never been to haiti so i don't know if that's the case there.

[tolakram]

Ok trying something here.

If you have installed the google earth plugin at http://code.google.com/apis/earth

then go to my web server at:

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

The world will load with a spot on the last recon center fix. You'll have to navigate to Haiti to see it. I believe most of the bandwidth is provided by google here, if not my home connections should die quickly.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a 4hr motion toward 290 degrees at 9 kts.

Have your thoughts changed much from this morning in regards to track?

Nope. North MX to south TX.

[JabNOLA]

In my humble opinion it does not seem likely that Gus will emerge north of the Haitian coast. Looking at the Floater water vapor loop the apparent eye (the dry spot) is moving along the southern coast. I believe the recent burst of convection to the south and east is in support of this opinion. Likely following the lower elevations near the coast.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm measuring a 4hr motion toward 290 degrees at 9 kts.

Have your thoughts changed much from this morning in regards to track?

Nope. North MX to south TX.

Yep, I'm going with Mexico as well, although perhaps the southern edge of Texas may get in on the action....

[KWT]

I don't think there will be much if any change in the track, maybe a ever so slight westward shift in the short term if the westerly motion has started now.

Also whilst the eye is gone the convective set-up still looks pretty impressive and I think given its such a small system it could ramp up very readily once it gets offshore again into the very warm Caribbean waters.

Wxman57, your going along with the 12z ECM then...models are coming into agreement on a western gulf hit, the ECM and UKMO shifting northwards, the GFS/GFDL shifting westward.

[dwg71]

any guesses on strength now. 60-70Kts. Haven't followed recon data too closely. I know it may increase, and should increase once off land. But actual strength now?

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from the Shreveport, LA NWS afternoon discussion. Do you think they know something about the next advisory?
DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
AS A LOW DEEPENS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY. THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...
ALL AREAS...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF. GUSTAV COULD BE WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE TEXAS COAST MONDAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...NOT RECOGNIZING

[rockyman]

New advisories coming in
4-5 day forecast

outlook valid 30/1800z 22.5n 85.0w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.

Outlook valid 31/1800z 25.5n 88.5w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad


For reference, here are the 4 and 5 day points from 11am advisory:
96hr VT 30/1200z 21.5n 83.5w 105 kt
120hr VT 31/1200z 24.0n 87.0w 105 kt

[TSmith274]

Will any parts of coastal Louisiana actually be IN the cone at the end of the NHC forecast period, or is it still too early?

[dwg71]

just an extension of prior...

[rockyman]

just an extension of prior...

the heading at the end is slightly west of WNW (3.5N/3.0W)...earlier it was NW (3.5N/3.5W)

[3ABirdMan]

Now that I think about it, I guess that Rita was a direct hit in that SE Texas suffered a lot of impact from the storm even though it was in the offshore flow side of the eye-wall for the most part.

Again, what I was meaning there is that the storm officially made landfall in Louisiana.

http://www.weather.gov/rita/rita_trak_lg.jpg Right on the line.


Officially.

Trying to catch up ASAP, but..........

RIGHT OVER MY HOUSE, thank you very much!

[KWT]

Very interesting rockyman, looks like faster motion to me, extrap that track would suggest LA. I personally now firmly on the Texas idea in terms of landfall but its still just to early to know!

Also they are holding at 105kts, I suppose they can't go any higher just yet though there is clearly every chance it will be stronger.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, barely a hurricane now... 75 mph..... Not suprising. Didn't look very
healthy on satellite, so my impressions were correct.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Outlaw JW]

I'm measuring a 4hr motion toward 290 degrees at 9 kts.

Have your thoughts changed much from this morning in regards to track?

Nope. North MX to south TX.

After a dismal amount of rain in Del Rio TX from Dolly totaling 2 tenths of an inch of rain I half jokingly told my neighbor “I want a do over” because we were in drought conditions at the time.

First post.

[dwg71]

just an extension of prior...

the heading at the end is slightly west of WNW (3.5N/3.0W)...earlier it was NW (3.5N/3.5W)

Slightly west of northwest...right??

[Stormcenter]

just an extension of prior...

the heading at the end is slightly west of WNW (3.5N/3.0W)...earlier it was NW (3.5N/3.5W)

Yes that's true. I would expect a gradual turn more to the west-wnw with the next advisories. I see a "possible" trend here.