ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[dwg71]

I would not put too much stock out past 72 hours. Too many variables...

I hope it continues to weaken before strengthening.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, this thing is going to be flying across the gulf....Not sticking around like Fay did, that's for sure....

[KWT]

wow, barely a hurricane now... 75 mph..... Not suprising. Didn't look very
healthy on satellite, so my impressions were correct.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Yeah its weakening clearly but that to be expected given its small core, its got a strong CDO still and I suspect the inner core is still tucked under there. May take 12hrs to get back to where it was before given the more westerly motion recently once its over water but who knows. Probably will be a TS when it emerges from Haiti, just hope it hasn't left the region too badly messed up afterwards.

[CourierPR]

In my humble opinion it does not seem likely that Gus will emerge north of the Haitian coast. Looking at the Floater water vapor loop the apparent eye (the dry spot) is moving along the southern coast. I believe the recent burst of convection to the south and east is in support of this opinion. Likely following the lower elevations near the coast.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I disagree. I see the center to the ENE of your position. We will know for certain very soon exactly where it is.

[JonathanBelles]

I didnt realize that little peninsula had enough mountains to do this much damage to a hurricane.

[dwg71]

I didnt realize that little peninsula had enough mountains to do this much damage to a hurricane.

mountains tend to do that...

Hopefully, that will be the trend - weakening.

[Derek Ortt]

the SW peninsula typically severely disrupts TCs

didn't do much to Ernesto in 2006. Of course, Ernesto had collapsed due to mid level shear BEFORE reaching the mountains

[dwg71]

I just saw the graphic for NHC track, I cant understand the rapid forward speed forcast on day 5??? Looks to be booking.

[Noles2006]

just an extension of prior...

the heading at the end is slightly west of WNW (3.5N/3.0W)...earlier it was NW (3.5N/3.5W)

Yes that's true. I would expect a gradual turn more to the west-wnw with the next advisories. I see a "possible" trend here.

Hold on... the distance between the last two points is 3.0N and 3.5W... which is just west of NW... earlier, the distances between the last two points were: 2.5N (24.0 - 21.5) and 3.5W (87.0 - 83.5)... so, actually, the new track is travelling more northerly than it was at the end of 120 hours earlier.

[z-bail]

Looking at the models on this page both most recent and the one earlier run today i would say models are trending more easterly. Earlier there were just about no tracks east of the NHC track and now they seem to be about 4....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[dwg71]

Nole.. I should have checked the math, it does appear north of NW on new graphics.

[cycloneye]

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

Map updated with 5PM NHC position

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 180 MILES
...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2039.shtml

[GeneratorPower]

I'm measuring a 4hr motion toward 290 degrees at 9 kts.

Have your thoughts changed much from this morning in regards to track?

Nope. North MX to south TX.

Let's review.

Did you mean to say "south FL." ?

I wouldn't take Florida "off the hook" just yet, at least not the Panhandle. Models remain split on the ridging over the Gulf this weekend. The ridge is already located north of Gustav. That's why it's slowed down this morning - getting ready for its westerly turn. BIG question is whether or not the weakness in the ridge across the eastern Gulf (as GFS predicts) will materialize and allow Gustav to hook N-NNE toward the FL Panhandle or if the door will swing shut and force Gustav west to the Yucatan and possibly a final landfall in Mexico (my initial track yesterday). I just don't know now. All models do show high pressure remaining over TX/LA early next week, which would seem to rule out a TX/LA landfall. But models have been known to be wrong on their 7 day forecasts in the past.

Confidently, I'd say final landfall somewhere between about Veracruz and Tampa for now, with a spike of higher probabilities toward central/northern MX and another spike toward FL Panhandle.

[TSmith274]

New Orleans director of emergency management just broke in live on all the local channels. Yes, New Orleans has an emergency director.

EDIT: Wow... guy just said evacs will begin 82hrs before landfall. Christ... how?
EDIT again: he was referring to 82 hours plan goes into effect. 60 hours evac begins. Sorry for the confusion.

[KWT]

Well we are seeing that here Derek, I suspect its small size isn't helping Gustav either but there you go, shouldn't prevent it from developing into as powerful major in the Nw Caribbean.

The NHC looks good but I note they are on the northern side of the guidence near E.Cuba.

[rockyman]

Hold on... the distance between the last two points is 3.0N and 3.5W... which is just west of NW... earlier, the distances between the last two points were: 2.5N (24.0 - 21.5) and 3.5W (87.0 - 83.5)... so, actually, the new track is travelling more northerly than it was at the end of 120 hours earlier.

Oops! you are 100% correct...Would you believe I was captain of my Math Team in high school? Sorry, folks.

[KWT]

Whatever the track motion is on the new NHC the track suggests NW towards W.LA it seems, I wonder how the energy markets will react to this new forecast?

[ConvergenceZone]

If it hits the gulf, wind will be an issue, but not a really big rain issue....(moving too fast)

[TexasStorm]

Depending on how long the steering current stays the way it is right now the last NHC track is pretty dang close which puts it going right through the channel between the Yucatan and Cuba. The L that is the remnant of Faye is still hanging around and causing the steering currents to push things east at the moment. I would expect that to move north soon which puts this thing on a pretty good track for the Gulf Coast somewhere. I don't like the looks of this one at all.