ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[stormy1970al]

Gustav's projected path is very similar to Frederic. I would link but don't how to.

I was pulling up Frederic's path from 1979. Eerie looking back to something that hit my hometown when I was in the fourth grade.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197906.asp

[KWT]

Yep HouTXmetro true but then again when you consider the synoptics favor a due west, maybe even slight south of west motion after the next 12hrs or so to kick in then it does make it less likely we will see a full landfall on eastern Cuba, could clip that very far SE part yet but who knows.

By the way looks like given the recon fix on the radar seems like the center is very close to pulling back over the waters again, probably only a few hours away. Turn to the west seems like its ongoing right now I think.

[Texas Snowman]

DWG71,

While I certainly agree that from a pure scientific standpoint that each year is independent, I disagree that an area can't be "overdue," at least in a climo sense.

If Boston goes without a major snow storm for five years straight, they are certainly living on borrowed time since big snows are a somewhat regular historical occurence in that region.

My point was that Galveston was a point of landfall for several major hurricanes in Texas history, but that there is a long dry run of a quarter century now. Looking purely at historical tracks and climo frequency, it would seem to me that they too are living on borrowed time before the next major 'cane hits the island.

[KWT]

Frederic's track may be good if this system ends up a little to the north of where its expected to go, though right now I'm pretty confident with all the models and the real time imagery suggesting a slow turn to the W/WSW.

Still think Lili will be close to the mark.

[tolakram]

Emerging off the north coast?

This is jumpy but the last 2 frames appear to show it close.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[KWT]

Yeah that does suggest tha its about to emerge though I'd like to some more frames as well the vis.imagery backing that up first...however recon did estimate the center based on the poor radar presentation to be close to the shore and that was a little bit ago so its certainly possible that the center of Gustav is about to emerge.

Don't expect any real strengthening for the first 12hrs until its sort out that inner core again completely...when it does then the real fun begins.

[HurricaneRobert]

The track is amazing close to Lili. If it keeps going west maybe it will hit land and then head north like Isidore.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm thinking this will be down to about 50 to 55 mph by tomorrow morning. They are expecting it to be below hurricane strength by tonight(I'm sure it already is)...It dropped below hurricane strength pretty fast, so it really wouldn't suprise me to see a 45 mph storm by the time if finally emerges fully off the coast..I bet ya the strength forecasts in the carib will be brought down...I'm sure it will still develop back into a cane though, providing no unseen shear doesn't interfere with it....

[canegrl04]

Emerging off the north coast?

This is jumpy but the last 2 frames appear to show it close.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Its going to be very predictable the next couple of days.Right in keeping with NHC official track

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah that does suggest tha its about to emerge though I'd like to some more frames as well the vis.imagery backing that up first...however recon did estimate the center based on the poor radar presentation to be close to the shore and that was a little bit ago so its certainly possible that the center of Gustav is about to emerge.

Don't expect any real strengthening for the first 12hrs until its sort out that inner core again completely...when it does then the real fun begins.

Yep. If it is truly about to emerge into water now, then the real strengthening may begin again overnight tonight. Conditions are very favorable and this should begin strengthening not too long after emerging. I think the NHC agrees, since the forecast intensity in 4 days has been upped 5 knots, despite weakening over land. Personally I expect a category 4 by then.

[RL3AO]

My guess is that its still near hurricane strength. Afterall, recon never was able to sample the north side of the storm and they never did get completly in the southern eyewall when they found the 50kt winds.

[KWT]

I'm thinking this will be down to about 50 to 55 mph by tomorrow morning. They are expecting it to be below hurricane strength by tonight(I'm sure it already is)...It dropped below hurricane strength pretty fast, so it really wouldn't suprise me to see a 45 mph storm by the time if finally emerges fully off the coast..I bet ya the strength forecasts in the carib will be brought down...I'm sure it will still develop back into a cane though, providing no unseen shear doesn't interfere with it....

Its pretty much offshore now, radar presentation looks like its improved a touch again with the inner core seemingly still present, even though its clearly weakened a fair amount, now its over water a slow re-organisation phase can begin. I'd guess probably 60kts as of now, maybe 55kts its hard to tell really without recon having been able to sample the north side prior to landfall.

[jasons2k]

State of Texas issues first situation report:

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 082608.pdf

[6SpeedTA95]

TCHP in the GOM is not that impressive but the SST's look pretty good and the storm will be moving into an environment of little shear once it gets into the GOM. The real question is how much interaction with land will the storm have.

[6SpeedTA95]

State of Texas issues first situation report:

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 082608.pdf

Texas is great, they don't mess around and they take responsibility for their actions

[KWT]

Its going to be very predictable the next couple of days.Right in keeping with NHC official track

Yeah I think the NHC will be close, maybe a touch too north between 24-48hrs where some models have it diving a little south of west.

The really interesting thing to watch however will be the strength, as most are aware its soon going to be tracking into the highest heat content in the entire basin.

[Cape Verde]

I'm less concerned about what its strength is when it leaves Haiti. Everyone here knows that it has plenty of time to intensify before it's a US threat.

Assuming it isn't hurt much with the interaction with Cuba, which is probably a good assumption, it's going to emerge in the Gulf as a healthy, and potentially dangerous storm. It really doesn't matter how weak it might be this evening.

[stormy1970al]

I can predict one thing. Many of us are not going to get a lot of sleep the next couple of days and into the weekend.

[jasons2k]

Don't look at the latest Cuban radar frames (hint: Gustav looks pretty intact emerging off the coast)

[HouTXmetro]

Don't look at the latest Cuban radar frames

WHat is it showing?